Industry and investment, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Nationalisations and privatisations: Restore EDF’s monopoly on electricity generation and distribution
Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.
The lever. The State taking or relinquishing stakes: nationalisation of companies or sectors, privatisations, sales of holdings. Direction rule: ↑ public ownership extended.
« Rétablissant le monopole de production et de distribution d’EDF. »1Translation by the editorsRestoring EDF’s monopoly on generation and distribution.
Encoding
No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The programme does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
not costed
EDF is already wholly owned by the State: the monopoly is a change of rule with no buyout to cost.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. The State has held 100% of EDF since the 2023 takeover bid (buyout of the 15.9% of the capital and of the convertible bonds it did not hold, about €9.7bn according to the Ministry of the Economy). The historic motorways are under concession until 2031-2036. There is no privatisation programme under way according to the sources read.
Horizon. Interest charge in a full year, at the AFT issuance rate (2.73% on average in 2025, 3.14% for long-term rates at end-2025). The purchase price is a financial transaction: it increases the debt, not the deficit.
Limits. The figure does not take into account dividends received or lost, which may offset or exceed the interest charge. For motorways, the Senate commission of inquiry (2020) estimated dividends at about €40bn beyond 2022 until expiry. The price of a nationalisation depends on the premium and on litigation: the Cour des comptes (May 2026, read in a blog article) reportedly judged that a lower premium on EDF would have saved €1bn. Sign convention for options: negative = gain.
- Agence France Trésor — Rapport annuel 2025 / Bulletin mensuel juillet 2026 (via résultat de recherche), 2026: « Le taux moyen à l'émission « passant de 3,06 % en 2024 à 2,73 % pour l'année 2025 » ; taux longs qui « passent de 2,91% à 3,14% à fin 2025 » »
- Ministère de l'Économie, communiqué de presse n° 34 du 19 juillet 2022 sur l'offre publique visant EDF (pages 1 et 2), 2022-07-19: « 12,0 euros par action EDF […] 15,64 euros par OCEANE […] Cette Offre représenterait un montant total en numéraire, pour les actions et les OCEANEs, d'environ 9,7 milliards d'euros, en supposant un taux d'apport des actions EDF et des OCEANEs EDF que l'Etat ne détient pas de 100%. »
- Sénat, rapport n° 709 (2019-2020) de la commission d'enquête sur le contrôle, la régulation et l'évolution des concessions autoroutières (pages 17 et 18 du PDF), 2020-09: « Au-delà de 2022, les dividendes versés atteindraient environ 40 milliards d’euros, dont 32 milliards pour Vinci et Eiffage, à comparer avec les coûts d’acquisition des sociétés. […] Prévu par les contrats de concession pour motif d’intérêt général, le rachat aurait un coût évalué par le ministère de l’économie et des finances entre 45 et 50 milliards d’euros. »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
- Debout la France, Notre projet : Économie. Read the programme page.
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