What the programmes change to the income of eight model households

• Marine Le Pen*1 simulated measure out of 12 · no programme released€0does not affect this household

  Their simulated measure changes nothing for this household.

  their 12 positions

  * assumption

  Family quotient: Reading: each household with two or more children receives an additional half-share (a full share for the second child), whose benefit is capped like the others (€1,807 in 2026), as the text does not set a specific cap; without a cap, the cost would be higher. Cost calculated by the editors on the 2019 breakdown of the family quotient by family size (IGAS-IGF, 2021): €2.2bn to €3.0bn, 2.6 at the centre, to be replaced by a microsimulation. The RN counter-budget's €2.86bn falls within this range.

• Raphaël Glucksmann*3 simulated measures out of 15 · no programme released+€972+€81 per month

  • Net monthly SMIC+€755
  • CSG rate on earned income+€217
  • Total+€972

  No effect here: public sector pay index point indexed to inflation each year.

  their 15 positions

  * assumption

  CSG (general social contribution): The €15bn that the candidate wants to pay back « sur la fiche de paie » [“onto the payslip”] is read as the gross yield of the decrease in the CSG on earned income: 15 ÷ €12.1bn per point (gross yield of one point, coefficient calculated by the editors) ≈ 1.24 points, i.e. a rate brought down from 9.2% to 7.96%: editors’ hypothesis. Central value, net of the income tax due to the deductible part (€11bn per point): about €13.6bn; €15bn gross as the upper bound. The funding announced in the same sentence, the taxation of the largest inheritances (€15bn announced, with no rate or schedule), cannot be costed: it is displayed under the inheritance tax lever as an announced amount, not added. Rule common to all: a costable measure is counted; funding that is not costable (revenue with no rate or schedule, undetailed overall savings) is cited, not added.

  Numbers and pay of civil servants: Reading adopted: the value of the public sector pay index point uprated each year in line with inflation, starting from a point frozen under current policies, as for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and Marine Tondelier. Editors' common assumption for all indexation rules: inflation of 1.75% a year (1.5% to 2.0%), five upratings from 2028 to 2032, i.e. a cumulative increase of 9.1% in 2032. Reading key: a one-point gap for one year costs €1.53bn. Not costed, for lack of a rate: the « durable » [“durable”] raising of pay and the correction of gaps between ministries. The Projet socialiste, the text of another party, also proposed raising salaries and giving tenure to contract staff: not taken up here.

• Édouard Philippe1 simulated measure out of 8 · no programme released€0does not affect this household

  Their simulated measure changes nothing for this household.

  their 8 positions
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon*5 simulated measures out of 27+€1,312+€109 per month

  • Net monthly SMIC+€1,312

  No effect here: garantie d'autonomie; uprating of basic pensions beyond the current rule; uprating of the housing benefit; increase in the value of the public sector pay index point.

  their 27 positions

  * assumption

  RSA (minimum income), amount and conditions: The editors' reading: the guarantee is a top-up to the household's poverty line, as defined by Insee (standard of living per consumption unit). The budget costing, for its part, reads it as an 86.6% increase in the RSA flat rate.

  Pension indexation: Indexation rule costed with the common assumption (decision of 18 October 2026): basic pensions uprated like wages from 1 January 2028, i.e. 0.7 point a year more than inflation (real growth in earned income up to 2038 in the reference scenario of the COR (pensions advisory council), annual report of June 2026); five upratings from 2028 to 2032, 3.5 cumulative points. Reading key: one point of gap for one year costs about €2.35bn net (2.1 to 3.0). With the average gap from 2001 to 2023, 1.1 points (Institut Montaigne), the cost would be about €12.9bn net. Only basic pensions are costed: supplementary pensions, set by the social partners, do not fall under the law (partial costing). On 14 October 2026, Éric Coquerel announces that he will « indexer toutes les pensions, prestations sociales » [“index all pensions, social benefits”], with the 10% increase in APL, for €8bn in all (amount cited at the housing benefit position), without saying on which index.

• Gabriel Attal*3 simulated measures out of 14+€1,147+€96 per month

  • Increase in the net wage of all private-sector employees+€1,147

  No effect here: teachers; uprating of basic pensions above the median only.

  their 14 positions

  * assumption

  Teachers' pay: Reading specific to the model household: the amount announced for mid-career (« pouvant atteindre 500 euros nets par mois pour les enseignants en milieu de carrière » [“up to 500 euros net per month for mid-career teachers”], report of the interview with Le Monde, attalpresident.fr, 25 August 2026), the career stage of the simulated primary school teacher. The budget costing uses the floor of €200 for all, for lack of a breakdown of teachers by career stage.

  Reductions in social contributions on low wages: Per-person rule: net wage × 1.0833 (one extra month of net wage per year, « l'équivalent d'un 13e mois directement sur sa fiche de paie » [“the equivalent of a 13th month directly on one's payslip”], campaign website, visit to Brittany, 24 July 2026, https://attalpresident.fr/actualites/gabriel-attal-en-bretagne-trois-jours-au-contact-de-la-france-qui-travaille), through a reduction in employee contributions, labour cost unchanged. Reading adopted: all private-sector employees, no wage ceiling being given; base: private-sector net wage bill, €551bn in 2024 (€726bn gross, Urssaf, × 0.7588, Insee net/gross ratio). Same base and same method as the net wage increases of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, David Lisnard and Bruno Retailleau. Other reading: only employees paid up to 3 times the SMIC (minimum wage), as for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, about €32bn. Calculation excluding civil servants: public employees are not counted (about €17bn more if they were). Static: the additional income tax is not counted. The announced funding (savings on unemployment insurance and daily sickness allowances, France Info, 9 September 2026) is not deducted.

  Pension indexation: Reading adopted: freeze of basic pensions on 1 January 2028 (one year, zero uprating instead of inflation, 1.75% under the common assumption), the « petites retraites » [“small pensions”] spared being read as pensions below the median: this is the highest threshold that can be called « petites » [“small”], hence the most cautious reading of the gain. A lower threshold would bring in more (up to about €4.1bn net for a freeze of all pensions); a threshold of €2,000, about €2.2bn. The one-year freeze permanently lowers the level of the pensions concerned, hence a gain in 2032. Inflation of 1.5 to 2.0%: €2.5bn to €3.3bn net at the centre. The freeze of other social benefits, in the same sentence, falls under other levers.

• Bruno Retailleau*5 simulated measures out of 17+€423+€35 per month

  • Uniform net gain per private-sector employee+€423

  No effect here: abolition of the family quotient in the strict sense; teachers; decrease in the RSA; family income of €240 per month per minor child.

  their 17 positions

  * assumption

  Family quotient: Reading adopted: measure no. 75 abolishes the family quotient (« Les dispositifs supprimés, allocations familiales, majoration pour âge, complément familial et quotient familial, représentent 41 milliards d'euros » [“The schemes abolished, family allowances, age supplement, complément familial and family quotient, represent 41 billion euros”]); only the half-shares for children are counted, since the measure replaces child-related aid with the family income. The marital quotient and the specific half-shares (single parents, disability, widowhood, single people who have raised a child), which the measure does not name, are not counted. Cost-schedule option: €12.5bn of revenue (IGF-IGAS 2026, 2024 tax, half-shares for children) to €16.5bn (Cour des comptes, 2021). The upper bound covers more than the children's share: drawn from the work of André and Sireyjol (Insee), it measures the whole family component of the tax, specific half-shares included (« L'ensemble de ces parts, charges spécifiques comprises, est un dispositif familial » [“All of these shares, specific charges included, are a family scheme”], Insee Analyses no. 53, June 2020; €1.7bn of specific shares in 2024 according to IGF-IGAS); the central value is therefore brought down to the lower bound. The other schemes abolished, family allowances, age supplement included, and complément familial, are counted at the candidate's family allowances position (family income net of these benefits): the reform, presented « à budget constant » [“on a constant budget”], is read across the two positions together. Static costing.

  Teachers' pay: Reading specific to the model household: the amount announced at the core of the career (« combler au moins la moitié de l'écart au cœur de la carrière, soit environ 300 euros nets supplémentaires » [“close at least half the gap at the core of the career, i.e. about 300 euros net more”], avecretailleau.fr, measure no. 15), the career stage of the simulated primary school teacher. The budget costing uses the floor of €135 for all, for lack of a breakdown of teachers by career stage.

  Reductions in social contributions on low wages: Employee half: per-person rule, +€500 net a year for each employee (measure « Rendre 500 euros par an à tous les salariés » [“Give back 500 euros a year to all employees”], « environ 500 euros nets par an au salaire médian » [“about 500 euros net a year at the median wage”]), read as the same amount for all, i.e. €41.67 a month; base: 20.96 million private-sector salaried jobs (Insee, second quarter of 2026), about €10.5bn, against €15bn announced for this half. Other reading, a gain proportional to pay (€500 at the median net wage of €26,280 a year, i.e. 1.9% of each person's net pay): 1.9% × €551bn of private-sector net payroll, also about €10.5bn. Business half, not counted (partial costing): €15bn less in employer contributions « dès la première heure travaillée » [“from the first hour worked”], with no rate or schedule: pure amount with no named instrument, not costed (decision of 18 October 2026, common rule, like the production tax cuts announced as an amount); it was taken until now at €15bn. Same base and same method as the net pay increases of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Gabriel Attal and David Lisnard; calculation excluding civil servants: public employees are not counted (about €3bn more if they were, 6.06 million public jobs). Gross cost, before the announced funding (unemployment insurance, single social account and fraud, corporate income tax, incentive income), which is not deducted.

  RSA (minimum income), amount and conditions: Read as the RSA lump-sum amount reduced to €550 a month (against €651.69), i.e. −15.6%, the more cautious of the two amounts cited (€550 from fifteen hours of training or job seeking, €300 without); below 0% (measured range: increases of 0 to 10%, upratings from 2013 to 2017), linear extrapolation, at the coefficient of the 2020 order updated to 2026 euros (€0.17bn per point; 0.15 for the effect on recipient households alone); the exit of households that a cut in the lump sum would cause is not costed. Not costed: the €300 amount for recipients without those fifteen hours, the top-up reduced by 30% of earnings in work, the merger with the in-work benefit and the ASS, the absence of any link to family situation. The announced gain (€2bn) concerns the activity incentive income as a whole.

  Family allowances: Family income of €240 per month per minor child: €39.9bn gross (13.87 million minor children living in families, Insee), minus family allowances, age supplement included, and the complément familial, which the measure names among the schemes abolished (€16.5bn in 2025). The family quotient, also abolished, is counted at its own lever (the candidate's family quotient position). Not counted: the condition of five years of professional activity and lawful residence, which excludes an unpublished number of families and would reduce the cost, the other merged schemes that the measure does not name (the « douze dispositifs » [“twelve schemes”] are not listed), and the third-child bonus (measure no. 76, €1.5bn according to the measure's page, €3bn according to the Famille booklet).

• Nicolas Dupont-Aignan*5 simulated measures out of 17+€1,105+€92 per month

  • Increase in the net wage of private-sector employees paid up to 3 times the SMIC+€1,105

  No effect here: end of income-related modulation; raising of the cap on the benefit per half-share; increase in pay for all teachers; public sector pay index point indexed to inflation each year.

  their 17 positions

  * assumption

  Reductions in social contributions on low wages: Per-person rule: net wage × 1.08 for every private-sector employee paid up to 3 times the SMIC (minimum wage), through lower employee contributions, with gross wage and employer cost unchanged; nothing above 3 times the SMIC (the text provides for no gradual phase-out, which would change the cost little). Base: private-sector net wage bill up to 3 times the SMIC, €374bn to €396bn in 2024 (editors' calculation, from the reductions by wage band of the expert group on the SMIC and the net/gross ratios of Insee and Urssaf). Reading adopted: « tous les salariés » [“all employees”] of the private sector (« sans peser sur le coût du travail pour les entreprises » [“without weighing on labour costs for businesses”]); calculation excluding civil servants: public employees up to 3 times the SMIC are not counted (about €15bn more if they were). Same base and same method as the net wage increases of Gabriel Attal, David Lisnard and Bruno Retailleau. Static: the additional income tax is not counted.

  Family allowances: Only the restoration of universality (end of means-based adjustment) is costed. The immediate increase has no amount; indexation to inflation already exists (uprating every 1 April).

  Numbers and pay of civil servants: Reading adopted: the value of the public sector pay index point uprated each year by inflation, starting from a point frozen under current policies. Common editors' assumption for all indexation rules: inflation of 1.75% a year (1.5 to 2.0%), five upratings from 2028 to 2032, i.e. a cumulative increase of 9.1% in 2032. Reading key: a one-point gap for one year costs €1.53bn (1.47 to 2.27). The reindexation of retirement pensions, in the same sentence, falls under the pensions lever.

• David Lisnard*5 simulated measures out of 14+€3,045+€254 per month

  • Uniform net gain per private-sector employee+€2,999
  • CSG and CRDS fully deductible from taxable income+€46
  • Total+€3,045

  No effect here: increase in pay for all teachers; complete removal of the family quotient cap; uprating of basic pensions above €2,000 a month only.

  their 14 positions

  * assumption

  Reductions in social contributions on low wages: Per-person rule: +€400 net per month for each employee (« environ 400 euros de plus par mois et par salarié » [“about 400 euros more per month per employee”]), the same amount for all, through a cut in contributions, labour cost unchanged. Base: 20.96 million private-sector salaried jobs (Insee, second quarter of 2026), i.e. 400 × 12 × 20.957 million ≈ €100.6bn a year, against €120bn announced (which assumes about 25 million beneficiaries). Reading adopted: private-sector employees, same base and same method as the net pay increases of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau; calculation excluding civil servants: public employees are not counted (about €29bn more if they were, 6.06 million public jobs). Amount targeted at the end of the savings trajectory (« au moins 200 milliards en trajectoire » [“at least 200 billion over the trajectory”], of which €80bn from the first year, split using the same 60% key): the year in which it would be reached is not given; the position is costed in full year. The contributions targeted are not detailed: at the SMIC, €400 exceeds employee contributions excluding CSG and CRDS (about €211 per month), so the measure implies also cutting employer contributions and raising gross pay accordingly; the static cost is the same. The decrease in the CSG (general social contribution) on earned income, announced elsewhere without a rate, may be part of it and is not counted twice. Gross cost, before the savings meant to finance it (the “Announced savings” lever, never added). The measures recorded so far on this lever (charges abolished at SMIC level for private individuals who employ staff, negative employer charges for hiring people who have been RSA (minimum income) recipients for more than two years, programme « Réussir une nouvelle ambition française ») are not costed separately.

  Pension indexation: Reading adopted: the « désindexation des retraites au-delà d'un seuil, de l'ordre de 2 000 euros mensuels » [“de-indexation of pensions above a threshold, of the order of 2,000 euros a month”] is read as a lasting rule from 1 January 2028: basic pensions above €2,000 per month are no longer uprated (nominal freeze), i.e. five missed upratings from 2028 to 2032 at the common inflation assumption of 1.75% a year, 8.75 cumulative points (7.5 to 10 points for inflation of 1.5% to 2.0%, i.e. about €9.5bn to €12.7bn net at the centre). Other reading: a freeze for a single year, about €2.2bn net. The threshold « de l'ordre de » [“of the order of”] €2,000 is taken as €2,000; a partial under-indexation, instead of a freeze, would yield less. Reading key: one point of uprating missed for one year by these pensions yields about €1.27bn net (1.1 to 1.6).

  CSG (general social contribution): Reading: « CSG et CRDS deviendraient complètement déductibles de l'IR » [“CSG and CRDS would become fully deductible from income tax”] applies to all CSG and CRDS levied on income taxed under the scale, earned income and replacement income (2.4 non-deductible points of CSG and 0.5 point of CRDS); on earned income alone, about €4.4bn. Tax lost calculated by the editors at the 12.5% rate measured by the IPP on the deductible part of retirees' CSG. The cut in the CSG on earned income, with no rate or amount, is not costed; it may be part of the €120bn « rendus aux actifs » [“returned to working people”] of the contribution relief lever, whose composition is not detailed.

• Fabien Roussel*3 simulated measures out of 14 · no programme released+€1,312+€109 per month

  • Net monthly SMIC+€1,312

  No effect here: increase in the value of the public sector pay index point; end of income-related modulation.

  their 14 positions

  * assumption

  Family allowances: The « retour » [“return”] to a universal family policy is read as the end of the income-based modulation of family allowances (2015).

• François Ruffin*1 simulated measure out of 10+€770+€64 per month

  • Net monthly SMIC+€770

  their 10 positions

  * assumption

  Net monthly SMIC (minimum wage): « SMIC à 1 600€ » [“SMIC at €1,600”] read as a net monthly amount, that of the Nouveau Front populaire programme (2024) which the text claims as its reference; the booklet does not specify net or gross, and €1,600 gross would be below the current SMIC (€1,867 gross).

• Marine Tondelier*8 simulated measures out of 31+€561+€47 per month

  • Net monthly SMIC+€713
  • Change in all CSG−€152
  • Total+€561

  No effect here: increase in pay for all teachers; increase in the RSA; return of the age supplement at 14; abolition of the 10% allowance on pensions; uprating of the housing benefit; 10% increase in the pay of category B and C employees.

  their 31 positions

  * assumption

  Net monthly SMIC (minimum wage): €2,000 gross converted to net with the contribution rate used by the cost schedule (20.84%), i.e. about €1,583. The support planned for TPE, PME (very small, small and medium-sized businesses) and associations (cut in the reduced rate of corporate income tax and in the payroll tax) is not costed: neither rate nor amount.

  RSA (minimum income), amount and conditions: Read as the RSA lump-sum amount raised to 50% of the net SMIC (€739 against €651.69), i.e. +13.4%; beyond +10% (increases from 2013 to 2017, the coefficient’s range), linear extrapolation, which does not count all newly eligible households (entry of new households not costed beyond +10%). Coefficient from the 2020 order updated to 2026 euros: €0.17bn per point (0.15 for households already receiving the benefit alone, lower bound). Not costed: indexation on the SMIC, a rule whose cost depends on future increases, and the abolition of the 15 hours of activity.

  Family allowances: Only the return of the increase at age 14 is costed. The same amount from the first child is not costed for lack of a specified amount, nor is the simplification of the other allowances.

  CSG (general social contribution): One-point increase applied to all rates and all bases; progressivity is not costed. At the centre, the gain is net of income tax (12.5%, IPP), assuming the added point is deductible like the 2018 increase; the correction also applies to capital income subject to the flat tax (PFU), where the CSG is not deductible, which reduces the gain by at most €0.25bn. The additional 3-point increase in the CSG on capital income (p. 68) is recorded under the “flat tax” lever, with the increase in the flat tax that it accompanies.

  Numbers and pay of civil servants: Costed: the annual indexation of the public sector pay index point to inflation (common editors' assumption: 1.75% a year, 1.5 to 2.0%, five upratings from 2028 to 2032, i.e. a cumulative increase of 9.1% in 2032; reading key: a one-point gap for one year costs €1.53bn) and the 10% increase in the pay of category B and C staff, read as applying to their whole pay, all statuses (civil servants only at the lower bound). Not costed: the increase for « catégories A qui ont perdu en pouvoir d'achat » [“category A staff who have lost purchasing power”], not delimited. The 15% increase for teachers is costed under its lever; that of 10% for researchers has no lever of its own.

Contribution of each measure to the total: the interactions between measures are shared out among them (Shapley decomposition); their sum is the total.

* At least one simulated measure relies on a reading by the editors: open “assumption” on the row.

No simulated measure to date for Éric Zemmour: their positions on these subjects do not yet translate into engine parameters. For them, the effect on this household is not measured; that does not make it zero. The details, position by position, are below.