Déchiffrer 2027

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Europe and defence, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

NATO: Leave NATO’s integrated command

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. France's place in the Atlantic Alliance: maintained, withdrawal from the integrated command, exit. Direction rule: ↑ deeper integration in NATO.

« Sortir du commandement intégré de l’OTAN pour regagner notre indépendance militaire et stratégique en poursuivant qu’un seul objectif : la défense de l’intérêt supérieur du pays, c’est à dire son intégrité territoriale en métropole et outre-mer, ses débouchés et approvisionnements et sa vision du monde. »1

Translation by the editorsLeave NATO’s integrated command to regain our military and strategic independence by pursuing only one objective: the defence of the country’s higher interest, that is to say its territorial integrity in metropolitan France and overseas, its markets and supplies, and its vision of the world.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

Leaving only the integrated command: no recent official source costs its budgetary effect; the cost schedule only costs leaving the organisation.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. France is a member of the Alliance and has been back in the integrated military command since 2009. Contribution to NATO common budgets: €203m in 2022 (of which €193m from programme 178). Cost share of 10.1023% for 2026-2027 (10.1940% from 7 March 2024 to 31 December 2025). According to the Cour des comptes, the contribution could reach about €830m in 2030 in 2022 euros (€770m for the military and investment budgets, €63m for the civil budget). The common budgets of all Allies amount to about €4.6bn in 2025.

Horizon. Full year 2030-2032. The Cour des comptes costs in 2022 euros; the top of the range is uprated at about 2% inflation per year.

Limits. Only the direct contribution is costed. Leaving NATO would not reduce the national defence target and could increase it (loss of pooling, of collective protection, of intelligence): not to be shown as a net saving. Low: 2022 level (0.2). Central: the Cour's estimate for 2030 (0.83, 2022 euros). High: 0.83 uprated for inflation (~1.0), editors' calculation. The Cour stresses the opacity of budget documents on this contribution. Leaving the integrated command alone has no source for a costing: not costed. Leaving the integrated command alone: no recent official source costs its budgetary effect.

  • Cour des comptes, « La participation de la France à l'OTAN : une contribution croissante » (S2023-0770), 2023-07: « « Pour la France, le financement des budgets militaires et d'investissement par le programme budgétaire 178 pourrait atteindre 770 M€ en 2030 et celui du budget civil par le programme budgétaire 105 un montant de 63 M€ en 2030. Ces chiffres exprimés en euros 2022 ne prennent pas en compte l'inflation à venir. » ; « la contribution financée par le programme 178 pourrait passer de 193 M€ en 2022 à environ 770 M€ en 2030 » »
  • OTAN, « Funding NATO » (page et tableau des quotes-parts), 2026-04-08: « These funds (around EUR 4.6 billion for 2025, and up to EUR 5.3 billion for 2026) enable NATO to deliver capabilities […] [tableau des quotes-parts, Cost share « at 32 », valid from 1 January 2026 until 31 December 2027] France 10.1023 »

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

  1. Debout la France, Notre projet : Défense nationale. Read the programme page.

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