Industry and investment, Marine Tondelier
Additional public investment, per year: €10bn for the climate from 2027
Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.
The lever. Additional public investment announced, in billions of euros per year. Direction rule: ↑ higher investment.
« Celle-ci ne peut pas attendre et doit commencer dès 2027 par des gestes forts qui s’élèvent à 10 milliards d’euros. »1Translation by the editorsIt cannot wait and must begin in 2027 with strong measures amounting to 10 billion euros.
Budget 2027 : la grande transmission doit financer la grande transition (dossier de presse), 26 August 2026. Position taken from a document of the candidate’s party or movement, not from a presidential programme.
Encoding
| Parameter | Current law | Proposed | Effective date or horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Additional public investment | 0 €bn/year | 8.6 €bn/year | Spending in a full year, static: €1 announced = €1 of deficit, before any feedback effect on growth |
Costing
Announced by the candidate
−€10bn
per year, new spending. Breakdown pp. 7-8: rail +€1bn, metropolitan RER €0.5bn, social leasing +€1bn, overseas territories +€0.4bn, biodiversity +€1bn, MaPrimeRénov' +€1.4bn, Fonds vert +€1.9bn, school buildings €2bn/year, civil protection €260m
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
−€8.6bn
per year for the public accounts, new spending. Candidate’s amount, taken as is.
The calculation
- Additional public investment: (8.6 − 0) ÷ 1 = 8.6 times “+€1bn of public investment per year”, each a cost of €1bn (1 to 1).
Partial costing. €10bn envelope reduced to €8.6bn: MaPrimeRénov' (+€1.4bn) falls under the energy renovation lever. That lever costs the programme’s target, 500,000 renovations per year, in a full year and at the current average aid (€10.6bn): this is not the increase announced for 2027, and the sum of the two items is not the cost of the announced €10bn envelope. The other items (rail, social leasing, school buildings…) remain in the envelope and are not costed elsewhere. Overlap with “Prisons and sentences” examined: one is a cost, the other a gain: with no shares declared for this case, both amounts are added (the higher-amount rule only applies between two costs or two gains).
Figure announced by the candidate: candidate’s amount, taken as is.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. There is no national rule setting the level of public investment. The 2024 European fiscal rules (net expenditure path) apply. General government GFCF amounts to €132.2bn in 2025 (Insee, annual national accounts, base 2020), i.e. about 4.4% of a GDP of €2,991.1bn.
Horizon. Spending in a full year, static: €1 announced = €1 of deficit, before any feedback effect on growth.
Limits. Most public investment is carried out by local authorities: a State commitment is only met if it goes through grants or State appropriations. Beware of double counting with the rail, renovation, EPR2 (a loan is not public investment), France 2030 and defence levers. A plan that goes partly through loans, guarantees or capital injections weighs less on the deficit: the Institut Montaigne (2022) estimated, « à la lumière » [“in the light”] of the investment-for-the-future programmes, that €200bn over five years would weigh only €29bn per year on the deficit (72.5%). These financial transactions weigh on the debt, which the cost schedule counts separately; the parameter applies only to investment spending, and this judgement on the composition of a plan is not a bound of the coefficient. Multiplier effects are not included in the central figure (rule of the method). Provisional Insee data, subject to revision. Common rules of 18 October 2026: an announced envelope is taken at the candidate's amount, converted to an annual figure over the duration they give or, if they give none, over the five-year term (five years); a fund lent by the Caisse des dépôts, Bpifrance or regulated savings (public banking hub) is read as having no effect on the balance (low reading: position counted at zero and marked as an assumption), the reading as public spending being cited in the note.
- Comptes nationaux annuels en 2025 (Insee), 2026-05: « FBCF « administrations publiques 5,4 5,3 2,6 132,2 1,0 3,7 0,1 » (132,2 = milliards d'euros 2025) ; le PIB « atteint 2 991,1 milliards d'euros » »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
- Budget 2027 : la grande transmission doit financer la grande transition (dossier de presse), 26 August 2026, p. 7. Position taken from a document of the candidate’s party or movement, not from a presidential programme. Read the source (Budget 2027 : la grande transmission doit financer la grande transition (dossier de presse)).
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