Energy, Marine Tondelier
Wind and solar: 44% renewables in electricity consumed in 2030
Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.
The lever. Development of wind and solar power: acceleration, maintenance, moratorium or halt. Direction rule: ↑ faster development.
« Modifier les objectifs et les moyens financiers de la troisième Planification Pluriannuelle de l’Énergie (PPE3) pour que la part des ENR atteigne 44 % de la consommation finale brute d’électricité en 2030. »1Translation by the editorsModify the targets and financial resources of the third Multiannual Energy Plan (PPE3) so that the share of renewables reaches 44% of gross final electricity consumption in 2030.
Encoding
| Parameter | Current law | Programme | Effective date or horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renewable electricity supported (change) | 0 TWh/year | 21.8 TWh/year (assumption by the editors, see the costing) | Public service charges (State budget) in a full year, at the average unit extra cost observed or forecast by the CRE for 2025-2027 |
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The programme does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
−€2bn
per year for the public accounts, new spending, range −€2bn to −€1.9bn.
The calculation
- Renewable electricity supported (change): (21.8 − 0) ÷ 1 = 21.8 times “+1 TWh of renewable electricity supported per year (or -1 TWh for a moratorium)”, each a cost of €0.09bn (0.09 to 0.09).
Assumption by the editors. Reading adopted (common rule for volume targets): 44% of electricity consumption in 2030 according to the RTE (electricity transmission operator) reference trajectory, with which the PPE3 (multi-annual energy plan) says it is consistent (451 TWh in 2025, 580 TWh in 2035, i.e. 515.5 TWh in 2030 on a straight line), requires 226.8 TWh of renewables, against about 205 TWh planned by the PPE3: 21.8 TWh more to support, maintained in 2032. Other reading, not adopted: RTE's slow decarbonisation trajectory (505 TWh in 2035, 478 TWh in 2030), which would require only 5.3 TWh more. RTE's domestic consumption stands in for gross final consumption, which the PPE3 does not project.
Coefficient calculated by the editors from Délibération CRE n°2026-149 du 15 juillet 2026 (CSPE 2026-2027): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. PPE3 targets (decree of February 2026): solar photovoltaic 48 GW in 2030 and 55 to 80 GW in 2035; onshore wind 31 GW in 2030 and 35 to 40 GW in 2035; offshore wind 15 GW in 2035. Support is provided through purchase obligations and additional remuneration, offset by the State budget (CSPE). According to the CRE (deliberation 2026-149 of 15 July 2026), the charges to be offset amount to €14.2bn in 2027, of which €10.7bn entered in the State budget, for 98 TWh supported in 2027 and a unit extra cost of €91.2/MWh.
Horizon. Public service charges (State budget) in a full year, at the average unit extra cost observed or forecast by the CRE for 2025-2027.
Limits. The average additional cost includes the old photovoltaic contracts from before the 2010 moratorium, which cost nearly €2bn per year and mostly expire before 2033. New contracts have a lower marginal additional cost, which the CRE (energy regulator) does not isolate: the cost schedule therefore probably overestimates the cost of a new TWh. The cost depends heavily on the wholesale price: during the 2022-2023 crisis, renewables brought €5.5bn into the budget. A wind moratorium only saves future contracts, not the existing stock. Its indirect effects (prices, security of supply, compensation for projects already awarded) are not costed. Abolition of all support, a benchmark that is not an option of the cost schedule: projected 2027 charges according to the CRE (table 3 of deliberation 2026-149), onshore wind €1,404.6m, offshore wind €1,306.7m, photovoltaic €4,579.2m, electricity renewables in mainland France €8,378.5m in total, injected biomethane €1,109.8m in 2026 and €1,373.3m in 2027. These charges are not a static gain: breaking current contracts would give producers a right to compensation, of an order of magnitude close to the additional cost removed; supporting only future projects saves only the unsupported volumes (TWh parameter). A position that does not say which of the two it targets is not costed. Support for renewables in non-interconnected zones (overseas territories, Corsica) is not isolated by the CRE and is not counted. The amount follows the wholesale price: €2.9bn for electricity renewables in 2024, €8.4bn projected in 2027. The Fonds chaleur (heat fund) and tax expenditures are not counted. Cost of a new TWh: according to the CRE, the increase in supported volume from 88.8 to 98.5 TWh between 2026 and 2027, mainly photovoltaic, « génère une hausse de l'ordre de 860 M€ » [“generates an increase of around €860m”] (€0.089bn per TWh), and that from 2025 to 2026 (+14 TWh) about €1.3bn (0.093): the marginal cost of new volumes is close to the average additional cost, which limits the bias noted above. Volume targets (common rule of 18 October 2026): a target convertible into TWh (share of renewables in electricity consumption, end of aid for future installations) is costed by the gap, in supported TWh, with the PPE3 trajectory in its target year, maintained in 2032, multiplied by this coefficient; the editors take the PPE3 as current policy (photovoltaic: 48 GW and about 59 TWh in 2030, 55 to 80 GW in 2035, load factor of 14%; electricity renewables: about 205 TWh in 2030), and electricity consumption from the reference trajectory of RTE (the electricity transmission system operator) (451 TWh in 2025, 580 TWh in 2035, interpolated in a straight line; 505 TWh in 2035 in the slow decarbonisation trajectory). These conversions are editors' assumptions, flagged as such. A target with no milestone before 2032 or covering all energy (and not electricity) is not convertible and remains uncosted.
- Délibération CRE n°2026-149 du 15 juillet 2026 (CSPE 2026-2027), 2026-07-15: « « TOTAL des charges à compenser en 2027 14 227,1 / Dont inscrites au budget de l'Etat 10 668,1 » (M€) ; « les surcoûts unitaires devraient se stabiliser respectivement à 89,4 €/MWh et 91,2 €/MWh » ; « le volume soutenu augmente de +10 TWh (98 TWh soutenus en 2027) » ; « l'augmentation du volume soutenu, de 88,8 TWh à 98,5 TWh, qui génère une hausse de l'ordre de 860 M€ » ; « entre 2025 et 2026, le volume soutenu augmente de +14 TWh (89 TWh soutenus en 2026), ce qui conduit à environ + 1,3 Md€ d'effet volume » ; « ont apporté 5,5 Mds€ de recettes au titre des années 2022 et 2023 » ; « Tableau 3 : Tableau récapitulatif des charges par action au titre des années 2024 à 2027 » ; colonne « Charges prévisionnelles au titre de 2027 » (M€) : « 1. Eolien terrestre » 1 404,6 ; « 2. Eolien en mer » 1 306,7 ; « 3. Photovoltaïque » 4 579,2 ; « 4. Bio-énergies » 855,1 ; « 5. Autres énergies » 232,9 ; « TOTAL » [soutien ENR électriques en métropole] 8 378,5 ; « 2. Injection biométhane » 1 373,3. Colonne « Mise à jour de la prévision au titre de 2026 » : TOTAL 7 286,6 ; injection biométhane 1 109,8 (cogénération et autres moyens thermiques : 653,1). Colonne « Charges constatées au titre de 2024 » : TOTAL 2 900,3. »
- Programmation pluriannuelle de l'énergie 2026-2035, document annexé au décret n° 2026-76 du 12 février 2026 (Journal officiel du 13 février 2026, documents administratifs n° 3 ; copie en ligne sur environnementdurable.org), pages 27 et 91, 2026-02-13: « PHOTOVOLTAÏQUE […] 19,3 GW - 22,7 TWh 48 GW ~59 TWh 55 – 80 GW ~67 – 98 TWh […] Les facteurs de charges utilisés : 14 % pour le PV, 25 % en 2030, et 26 % en 2035 pour l'éolien terrestre et 45% pour l'éolien en mer. […] Jusqu'à 2028 : appels d'offres et arrêtés tarifaires dans la limite d'un plafond de 2,9 GW par an de puissance soutenue […] En 2030, la PPE devrait conduire à une production d'au moins 560TWh d'électricité décarbonée, avec au moins 200TWh (environ 205 TWh) d'électricité d'origine renouvelable »
- CRE, rapport annuel 2026 à la Commission européenne (DG ENER), section 2.3.1.1 (consommation d'électricité), 2026-07-31: « La consommation d'électricité « à température normale » (corrigée des aléas météorologiques et calendaires), estimée par RTE, s'est élevée à 451 TWh en 2025 […] RTE prévoit une hausse de la consommation intérieure d'électricité de l'ordre de 30 % en 2035 par rapport à aujourd'hui (la consommation s'établissant à 580 TWh en 2035). […] Dans ce scénario, la consommation annuelle atteindrait 505 TWh en 2035 »
- reseaux.photovoltaique.info (Hespul), « La PPE3 (à partir de 2026) », 2026: « A fin 2025, la puissance photovoltaïque installée est d'environ 31 GW, […] en 2030 : 59 TWh, soit 48 GW […] en 2035 : 67-98 TWh, soit 55-80 GW »
- PPE3 : objectifs (synthèse de presse spécialisée, via résultat de recherche), 2026-02: « Photovoltaïque 48 GW en 2030 et 55 à 80 GW en 2035 ; éolien terrestre 31 GW en 2030 et 35 à 40 GW en 2035 ; éolien en mer 15 GW en 2035. »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
- Pour une prospérité écologique – Le nouveau programme des Écologistes (Projet 2027), version 1 of 25 August 2026, p. 16. Open the document at this page.
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