Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Debt and public spending, Gabriel Attal

Level of public spending: Spending decrease: no spending is taboo, all administrations

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Targeted change in total public spending (State, social security, local authorities), in volume or as a share of gross domestic product. Direction rule: ↑ higher public spending.

« Pour reprendre en main nos finances publiques et notre destin, la France doit agir maintenant et agir fort. Aucune dépense ne doit être un tabou. Toutes les administrations devront participer à l’effort collectif. »1

Translation by the editorsTo regain control of our public finances and our destiny, France must act now and act strongly. No spending must be taboo. All administrations will have to take part in the collective effort.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

lever that cannot be costed

Direction with no target level: the level of spending is compared with the sum of the costed measures.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Public spending 2025: €1,714bn, i.e. 57.2% of GDP (57.0% in 2024); euro area 49.8%, Germany 50.5%. European norm: net primary expenditure capped at +1.2% in 2026, 2027 and 2028 and +1.1% in 2029 (Council recommendation of 21 January 2025).

Horizon. Ratio in 2032; gap with the PSMT path.

Limits. Targeted level of spending, not a measure: consistency check against the sum of costed measures. Outcome lever, not a measure lever: it serves as a consistency check against the sum of measures. Fipeco: « l'écart de 6,7 points avec l'Allemagne = 200 Md€ » [“the gap of 6.7 points with Germany = €200bn”].

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

  1. Programme, Dette de l'État. Read the programme page.

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