Gabriel Attal’s programme: what we were able to cost

Effects on households

Eight model households, annual disposable income, calculated with OpenFisca-France for only the measures the engine can simulate (3 measures). A zero difference means that these measures do not affect this household, not that the programme changes nothing for it. *: at least one simulated measure rests on a reading by the editors. The detail, household by household, and the comparison with the other candidates.

The public accounts

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

Line by line

• LeverPositionEffect on the public accounts, per year
• Reductions in social contributions on low wagesCut employee social contributions to raise net payAssumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Groupe d'experts SMIC, Rapport 2025 (25 novembre 2025): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Per-person rule: net wage × 1.0833 (one extra month of net wage per year, « l'équivalent d'un 13e mois directement sur sa fiche de paie » [“the equivalent of a 13th month directly on one's payslip”], campaign website, visit to Brittany, 24 July 2026, https://attalpresident.fr/actualites/gabriel-attal-en-bretagne-trois-jours-au-contact-de-la-france-qui-travaille), through a reduction in employee contributions, labour cost unchanged. Reading adopted: all private-sector employees, no wage ceiling being given; base: private-sector net wage bill, €551bn in 2024 (€726bn gross, Urssaf, × 0.7588, Insee net/gross ratio). Same base and same method as the net wage increases of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, David Lisnard and Bruno Retailleau. Other reading: only employees paid up to 3 times the SMIC (minimum wage), as for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, about €32bn. Calculation excluding civil servants: public employees are not counted (about €17bn more if they were). Static: the additional income tax is not counted. The announced funding (savings on unemployment insurance and daily sickness allowances, France Info, 9 September 2026) is not deducted.−€46bnrevenue cut
• Additional public investment, per year€200bn AI plan, half public, half private, no annual paceAssumption by the editors. Candidate’s amount, taken as is. Reading adopted: the public share of the plan, €100bn (half of the €200bn), spread in equal parts over the ten years of the stated horizon (« d’ici 10 ans » [“within 10 years”]), i.e. €10bn per year, counted as public investment at the candidate's amount. The share that would come from the European budget, or would go through loans and guarantees, which the text does not specify, would weigh less on the national balance.−€10bnnew spending
• New nuclear reactorsSecure the 14 EPRs, then aim for one reactor per year* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 0 to 6 reactors). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from EDF, communiqué du 18 décembre 2025, « EDF shares its forecasted cost estimate of the EPR2 programme for €72.8bn » (copie d'archive du 13 octobre 2026, le site renvoyant une erreur 403): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: 2032 financing need acknowledged as overestimated beyond the six EPR2s of the PPE3, disbursed later than the coefficient assumes (2027 to 2038); lower bound: EDF's December 2025 estimate, 60% financed by a State loan paid out over 12 years (€0.61bn per reactor). Fourteen EPR2s, i.e. eight more than the six of the PPE3. Beyond the six EPR2s of the PPE3, the cost schedule coefficient (disbursements spread from 2027 to 2038) is extrapolated linearly: it probably overestimates the 2032 financing requirement, since the following reactors are disbursed later. State loan: weighs on the debt, shown separately from the balance. The subsequent objective of one reactor per year is not costed.−€4.9bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}additional State lending, on the debt, −€9.6bn to −€4.9bn
• Numbers and pay of civil servantsCut 100,000 posts in the State and local authoritiesAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, « L'essentiel » sur le PLF 2026, programme « Fonction publique » de la mission « Transformation et fonctions publiques » (page 2): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Costed: the saving from 100,000 fewer posts, at the average cost of a public employee (bottom of the range at the cost of a local government employee). Not costed: the voluntary departure bonus accompanying the plan (interview with the JDD, 1 August 2026), a one-off cost with no amount.+€4.2bnsaving, +€2.8bn to +€6.2bn
• Pension indexation2028 freeze year on benefits, small pensions sparedAssumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Commission des comptes de la Sécurité sociale, Les comptes de la Sécurité sociale, résultats 2025, prévisions 2026 et 2027 (octobre 2026), fiche 2.5, tableau 1: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: freeze of basic pensions on 1 January 2028 (one year, zero uprating instead of inflation, 1.75% under the common assumption), the « petites retraites » [“small pensions”] spared being read as pensions below the median: this is the highest threshold that can be called « petites » [“small”], hence the most cautious reading of the gain. A lower threshold would bring in more (up to about €4.1bn net for a freeze of all pensions); a threshold of €2,000, about €2.2bn. The one-year freeze permanently lowers the level of the pensions concerned, hence a gain in 2032. Inflation of 1.5 to 2.0%: €2.5bn to €3.3bn net at the centre. The freeze of other social benefits, in the same sentence, falls under other levers.+€2.9bnsaving, +€2.6bn to +€3.7bn
• Teachers' pay+€200 net per month, up to +€500 mid-careerAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Enseignement scolaire: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Costed: €200 net per month for all teachers. Not costed: the supplement of up to €500 net mid-career, whose base is not given. Gross cost: the announced funding, « notamment par des économies réalisées sur les dépenses sociales » [“in particular through savings made on social spending”] (same source) and through the resources freed up by the demographic decline (programme, « École » workstream), is not deducted.−€2.4bnnew spending, −€3.8bn to −€2.3bn
• Unemployment, max. benefit durationContinuation of the 2024 reform, read as 15 months of benefits at most* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 18 to 24 months). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Unédic, Réforme 2023 : premiers effets de la réforme de contracyclicité: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated, since claimants after a negotiated termination (rupture conventionnelle), already compensated for 15 months at most, are included in the coefficient; for this parameter, the lower bound of the coefficient (€0.7bn per month) is also its central value. Reading adopted: the report of the interview with Le Parisien published by the campaign website (3 July 2026, https://attalpresident.fr/actualites/dans-le-parisien-gabriel-attal-vise-le-zero-deficit-en-2037) announces « la reprise de la réforme de l'assurance chômage initiée lorsqu'il était Premier ministre » [“the resumption of the unemployment insurance reform initiated when he was Prime Minister”]; the « Dette de l'État » page of the programme says this reform was launched in 2024 and prevented from coming into force by the dissolution: these are the June 2024 rules, read as for Bruno Retailleau. For the duration, their maximum benefit duration of 15 months, instead of 18 today before age 55; below 18 months (range measured by Unédic, 18 to 24 months), linear extrapolation. These rules were costed by Unédic against the law at the time, since amended (agreement of 15 November 2024, 2026 amendment): the cost schedule coefficient is applied to current law. Claimants after a negotiated termination (rupture conventionnelle), already compensated for 15 months at most since 1 September 2026, are included in the coefficient: the gain is overestimated by part of the savings from the amendment (€0.72bn to €0.945bn in all). Not costed: the rules for older workers. The eligibility condition of the same rules (8 months of work in the last 20) is costed under the “access” lever. The announced savings (€5bn in the report, « plus de 4 milliards » [“more than 4 billion”] on the « Dette de l'État » page) cover the whole reform and are not used.+€2.1bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€2.1bn to +€2.3bn
• Unemployment, work period required to qualify for benefitsContinuation of the 2024 reform: 8 months of work to open entitlement* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 4 to 6 months). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Unédic, « Impact de l'évolution des règles d'assurance chômage au 1er juillet 2021 » (estimations de mars 2021), page 7 du PDF: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: the report of the interview with Le Parisien published by the campaign website (3 July 2026, https://attalpresident.fr/actualites/dans-le-parisien-gabriel-attal-vise-le-zero-deficit-en-2037) announces « la reprise de la réforme de l'assurance chômage initiée lorsqu'il était Premier ministre » [“the resumption of the unemployment insurance reform initiated when he was Prime Minister”]; the « Dette de l'État » page of the programme says this reform was launched in 2024 and prevented from coming into force by the dissolution: these are the June 2024 rules, read as for Bruno Retailleau. For eligibility, their condition of 8 months of work in the last 20 months to open entitlements, instead of 6 months in 24 today; above 6 months (range measured by Unédic, 4 to 6 months), linear extrapolation. The coefficient (Unédic, March 2021) is applied to current law without updating, as for the repeals of the 2019-2021 reform costed for other candidates. Not costed: the reference period reduced from 24 to 20 months, which tightens eligibility further, and the rules for recharging entitlements. The maximum duration of 15 months under the same rules is costed under the “duration” lever; the savings announced for the whole reform are cited there, without being used.+€0.8bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€0.6bn to +€1bn
• Funded share€1,000 retirement savings per child, 50% of profit-sharing into PERsAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Céreq Bref n° 487-488, « S'insérer dans un monde instable : le diplôme reste une valeur sûre » (enquête 2024 auprès de la Génération 2021): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: €1,000 paid at each birth, as in amendment no. 3301 to the budget bill (PLF) for 2026 (National Assembly, 10 January 2026), of which Gabriel Attal is a co-signatory. Neither the tax scheme for family top-ups nor the channelling of 50% of profit-sharing and employee participation into retirement savings plans is costed.−€0.6bnnew spending
• Pupils per class, primaryFewer than 20 pupils per class in primary schoolAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Enseignement scolaire (O. Paccaud): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted, the same as for Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Tondelier: an average number of pupils per class in public primary schools, costed at the bound of the target (20 pupils); « moins de 20 » [“fewer than 20”] would cost more, and a cap much more. The announced funding, the resources freed up by the demographic decline, is not deducted: current policies cut these posts, so it is a cost relative to them. Overlap with “Numbers and pay of civil servants” examined: estimated common base zero, both amounts are added. No source says that an overall public sector headcount target is counted net of the teaching posts created on this lever: by default, the common base is zero and the two amounts are added together.−€0.5bnnew spending, −€0.9bn to −€0.5bn
• Citizens' initiative referendum (RIC)Annual referendum day; no RIC mentioned−€0.2bnnew spending, −€0.2bn to −€0.1bn
• Resources for the justice systemRecruit 3,000 additional judges and court clerksAssumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from AN, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Justice: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Overlap with “Numbers and pay of civil servants” examined: estimated common base zero, both amounts are added. No source says that an overall public sector headcount target is counted net of the justice jobs created on this lever: by default, the common base is zero and the two amounts are added together.−€0.2bnnew spending, −€0.3bn to −€0.2bn
• Ability groups, organisation of lower secondary schoolGeneralise ability groups in French and maths at lower secondary schoolAssumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Enseignement scolaire: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: ability groups exist in 6e and 5e; « généraliser » [“generalising”] them extends them to 4e and 3e, with the same number of posts (2,800, minus the 340 already assigned to these levels), about €0.11bn. The « souplesse » [“flexibility”] left to schools may also mean an extension with constant resources: zero cost, lower bound.−€0.1bnnew spending, −€0.2bn to €0bn
• OvertimeAbolish the legal cap on overtime (220 hours a year)€0bnzero cost
• Income tax scaleNo tax increases (general position, not specific to income tax)€0bnzero cost
• VATRejects an employer-side social VAT, prefers cutting employee contributions€0bnzero cost
• Flat-rate levy on capital (flat tax)Flat tax maintained, refusal of any rollback€0bnzero cost
• Corporate income taxCorporate income tax kept at 25%, no rollback€0bnzero cost
• Wealth tax (IFI, ISF)No return of the wealth tax (ISF)€0bnzero cost
• Tax and social security expendituresDo not increase the taxation of life insurance€0bnzero cost
• Production taxesComplete the abolition of the CVAE€0bnzero cost
• Taxes on fuel and energyRejects a general cut in fuel taxes, targeted supportPartial costing. Fuel taxes unchanged. Not costed: the targeted support proposed instead, support paid by the employer free of charges and tax (same source), upgraded mileage allowance scale, broader support for high-mileage drivers and tax-exempt fuel bonus raised to €1,000 (press conference of 23 September 2026), with no amount.€0bnzero cost
• Police and gendarmerie numbersInterior, Justice, Armed Forces, Education outside the 100,000 job cuts€0bnzero cost

Amounts announced by the candidate

The amounts that Gabriel Attal puts forward, with the direction given to them (“+”: gain for the public accounts, “−”: cost). They are never added to the totals or to each other. The gap with our calculation is only given when both cover the same scope: not for a position that is not costed, costed in part, based on an assumption by the editors, or whose amount is the candidate’s own, taken as is; and only when the announcement falls outside the range of our calculation (otherwise: “within the range”).

• LeverWhat the candidate saysAnnounced, per year
• Unemployment, max. benefit durationReport of the interview with Le Parisien (3 July 2026): « la reprise de la réforme de l'assurance chômage initiée lorsqu'il était Premier ministre afin de remettre les Français en emploi et de générer 5 milliards d'euros d'économies » [“the resumption of the unemployment insurance reform initiated when he was Prime Minister in order to get the French back into work and generate 5 billion euros of savings”]Our calculation: +€2.1bn per year. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Additional public investment, per year« il convient de viser un objectif de 200 milliards d'euros, partagé à parité stricte entre le financement public et privé » [“we should aim for a target of 200 billion euros, shared on a strictly equal basis between public and private funding”] (total amount, presented as a « Plan France 2040 », with no spending timetable)Our calculation: −€10bn per year. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Announced savings« un frein d’urgence budgétaire de 15 milliards d’euros » [“a budgetary emergency brake of 15 billion euros”]; « son vaste plan de 150 milliards d’euros d’économies tout au long de son mandat » [“his vast plan of 150 billion euros of savings throughout his term”]Position not costed. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote

What this costing does not measure

• Growth and employmentThe effect of the measures on activity and employment, and the revenue gained or lost as a result; it depends on the economic model used: models and feedback effects.
• Education, health, researchLong-term effects on human capital, productivity and innovation.
• InequalityThe distribution of gains and losses across the whole population, beyond the eight model households.
• Public servicesWhat new spending or savings change in the quality of the services provided and in access to them.
• Environment and climateEffects on emissions, natural resources and adaptation to climate change.
• Sovereignty and external dependenceEffects on the country’s dependence on other countries: energy, industry, defence, supplies.
• Interest rates on the debtThe effect of a programme on the terms on which the State borrows, which also depend on the make-up of the holders of its debt.