Higher education and research, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Research, share of GDP: Research raised to 3% of GDP by 2029
Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.
The lever. Targeted research and development spending, public and private, as a percentage of gross domestic product. Direction rule: ↑ greater research effort.
« 2,2 % de notre PIB est actuellement consacré à la recherche contre 2,8 % pour l’Allemagne. L’objectif sera de passer la barre des 3 % dès 2029. »1Translation by the editors2.2% of our GDP is currently devoted to research, compared with 2.8% for Germany. The objective will be to pass the 3% mark by 2029.
Encoding
| Parameter | Current law | Programme | Effective date or horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Additional public research spending | 0 point of GDP | 0.27 point of GDP (assumption by the editors, see the costing) | full year 2032, €bn/year |
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The programme does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
−€9.5bn
per year for the public accounts, new spending, range −€10bn to −€7.6bn.
The calculation
- Additional public research spending: (0.27 − 0) ÷ 0.1 = 2.7 times “+0.1 point of GDP of public research spending in 2032”, each a cost of €3.5bn (2.8 to 3.7).
Assumption by the editors. Target of 3% of GDP for all research from 2029, with no public share stated: read, as for all candidates, according to the Barcelona target, under which two thirds of the increase come from the private sector. One third of the increase from 2.18% (2023) to 3% is public: +0.27 points of GDP of public research spending, about €9.5bn in 2032. Business R&D is not public spending.
Coefficient calculated by the editors from SIES, notes sur la DIRD 2023 (Flash juillet 2025, NI novembre 2025): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. The target has been 3% of GDP since 2000. In 2023, gross domestic expenditure on R&D stands at 2.18% of GDP: 1.44% for businesses, 0.74% for government, the lowest level since 1980 (SIES). The research programming act 2021-2030 applies.
Horizon. full year 2032, €bn/year
Limits. 2023 GDP derived: 61.5 / 0.0218 ≈ €2,820bn, hence 0.1 point ≈ €2.8bn (low value). Nominal GDP in 2032 is projected at €3,500bn-€3,700bn (assumption of about 3% nominal growth per year, not sourced), hence €3.5bn to €3.7bn. If a candidate's objective concerns total GERD (DIRD, 3%), only the State-financed share counts (budget appropriations or research tax credit): the public share is separated from the share expected from businesses. Rule on public bases (18 October 2026), the same for all candidates: a target of 3% of GDP that does not state its public share is read according to the Barcelona objective (European Council, March 2002), under which « les deux tiers de ce nouvel investissement » [“two thirds of this new investment”] come from the private sector: one third of the increase, from 2.18% to 3% of GDP, is public, i.e. (3 − 2.18) / 3 ≈ +0.27 point of public research spending (similar reading: 1% public out of 3%, i.e. +0.26 point). When the text gives its public share, that is what counts. The research tax credit, public funding of business research, is not counted here: it falls under tax expenditures.
- SIES, notes sur la DIRD 2023 (Flash juillet 2025, NI novembre 2025), 2025-11: « la DIRD est de 61,5 milliards d'euros ... L'effort de recherche ... est de 2,18 % en 2023 ; L'effort de recherche des administrations s'élève à 0,74 % du PIB en 2023, à son plus bas niveau depuis 1980 »
- Sénat, avis PLF 2026 Recherche et enseignement supérieur, 2025-11: « depuis plus de quinze ans, l'investissement dans la recherche stagne à 2,2 % du produit intérieur brut (PIB), alors que, dès 2000, la cible était de 3 % du PIB »
- Conseil européen de Barcelone, 15 et 16 mars 2002, conclusions de la présidence (SN 100/1/02 REV 1), point 47, 2002-03-16: « agrees that overall spending on R&D and innovation in the Union should be increased with the aim of approaching 3% of GDP by 2010. Two-thirds of this new investment should come from the private sector »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
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