Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Higher education and research, Bruno Retailleau

Research, share of GDP: Public research concentrated on seven strategic sectors

Direction of change: change of another kind, or uncertain direction, compared with current law.

The lever. Targeted research and development spending, public and private, as a percentage of gross domestic product. Direction rule: ↑ greater research effort.

« Concentrer les financements publics de recherche sur sept secteurs stratégiques, de l'intelligence artificielle au quantique, des énergies du futur aux biotechnologies. »1

Translation by the editorsConcentrate public research funding on seven strategic sectors, from artificial intelligence to quantum, from the energies of the future to biotechnologies.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

Concentration of research funding on seven sectors, with no increase or decrease announced: nothing to cost.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. The target has been 3% of GDP since 2000. In 2023, gross domestic expenditure on R&D stands at 2.18% of GDP: 1.44% for businesses, 0.74% for government, the lowest level since 1980 (SIES). The research programming act 2021-2030 applies.

Horizon. full year 2032, €bn/year

Limits. 2023 GDP derived: 61.5 / 0.0218 ≈ €2,820bn, hence 0.1 point ≈ €2.8bn (low value). Nominal GDP in 2032 is projected at €3,500bn-€3,700bn (assumption of about 3% nominal growth per year, not sourced), hence €3.5bn to €3.7bn. If a candidate's objective concerns total GERD (DIRD, 3%), only the State-financed share counts (budget appropriations or research tax credit): the public share is separated from the share expected from businesses. Rule on public bases (18 October 2026), the same for all candidates: a target of 3% of GDP that does not state its public share is read according to the Barcelona objective (European Council, March 2002), under which « les deux tiers de ce nouvel investissement » [“two thirds of this new investment”] come from the private sector: one third of the increase, from 2.18% to 3% of GDP, is public, i.e. (3 − 2.18) / 3 ≈ +0.27 point of public research spending (similar reading: 1% public out of 3%, i.e. +0.26 point). When the text gives its public share, that is what counts. The research tax credit, public funding of business research, is not counted here: it falls under tax expenditures.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. avecretailleau.fr, mesure n° 42 « Concentrer la recherche sur 7 priorités industrielles ». Read the programme page.

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