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Debt and public spending, Raphaël Glucksmann

Public deficit targeted for 2032: Deficits cut over five years by a « contrat de stabilité » [“stability contract”], no target

Direction of change: change of another kind, or uncertain direction, compared with current law.

The lever. General government deficit that the programme targets at the end of the five-year term, as a percentage of gross domestic product. Direction rule: ↑ higher targeted deficit.

« assurer l’équilibre des comptes publics par un contrat de stabilité instaurant une trajectoire engageante de réduction de la dette et des déficits sur 5 ans. »1

Translation by the editorsensure balanced public accounts through a stability contract establishing a binding path of debt and deficit reduction over 5 years.

Place publique, « Budget pour 2026 : un moindre mal qui nous engage à construire une alternative crédible pour la France ! », 3 February 2026. Position taken from a document of the candidate’s party or movement, not from a presidential programme.

No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 21 October 2026.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The cited source does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

lever that cannot be costed

Lever with no coefficient in the cost schedule: the position is compared, not costed.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Public deficit 2025: 5.1% of GDP (€152.5bn). 2026 target: 5.0%, maintained in the RAA 2026. Official path: « sous 3 % du PIB à horizon 2029 » [“below 3% of GDP by 2029”] (PSMT 2025-2029, adjustment spread over 7 years with the agreement of the Council of the EU). OFCE forecasts: 4.8% in 2026, 4.4% in 2027. No official target published for 2032.

Horizon. Level in 2032, as % of GDP, to be compared with the extended PSMT (medium-term fiscal-structural plan) path (below 3%).

Limits. Balance target, not a measure: it serves to compare the announced target with the total of costed measures. 1 point of GDP is worth about €36bn in 2032 (nominal growth assumption). It is not a cost lever as such: it is the targeted balance, which serves to test the consistency between costed measures and the announced target. The conversion into €bn in 2032 rests on a nominal GDP assumption: about €3,000bn in 2025 rising to €3,560bn to €3,680bn.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Raphaël Glucksmann

  1. Place publique, « Budget pour 2026 : un moindre mal qui nous engage à construire une alternative crédible pour la France ! », 3 February 2026. Position taken from a document of the candidate’s party or movement, not from a presidential programme. Read the source (Place publique, « Budget pour 2026 : un moindre mal qui nous engage à construire une alternative crédible pour la France ! »).

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