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Energy, David Lisnard

Electricity prices, European market: Long-term contracts at nuclear cost for industry

Direction of change: change of another kind, or uncertain direction, compared with current law.

The lever. How the electricity price is set and France's place in the European electricity market. Direction rule: ↑ higher prices; ↓: lower prices.

« Le prix de l’électricité pour les industriels doit être sécurisé par un mécanisme de contrat long terme fondé sur le coût réel du nucléaire, en rupture avec les absurdités du marché européen. »1

Translation by the editorsThe price of electricity for industrial firms must be secured by a long-term contract mechanism based on the real cost of nuclear power, breaking with the absurdities of the European market.

Words of David Lisnard, Le Diplomate, grand entretien (repris sur unenouvelleenergie.fr), 6 October 2025. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The cited source does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

Target price: no budgetary cost as long as the gap with the market price is not compensated by the State; if it is, it becomes spending (benchmark: the 2022-2024 tariff shield, costed by the Cour des comptes).

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. France remains in the integrated European electricity market. ARENH ended on 31 December 2025. It is replaced by the universal nuclear payment (versement nucléaire universel, art. 17 of the LF 2025, act no. 2025-127): half of EDF's revenue above €78/MWh is paid back, and 90% above €110/MWh (thresholds set by the order of 11 February 2026; rates of 50% and 90% read in summaries, not in the text). The VNU is not expected to be triggered in 2026 (reference price estimated at around €66/MWh). Regulated sales tariffs are maintained. The excise duty on electricity for households (36 kVA or less) has been €30.62/MWh since 1 August 2026, including the ZNI surcharge. It yielded €8.2bn in 2025.

Horizon. Revenue shortfall in a full year, static, 2025 base (excise duty) or 2024 base (VAT).

Limits. Leaving the European market has no measurable direct budgetary cost: it is a matter of European law and of EDF's rent (lower dividends, effects on the VNU, universal nuclear payment), which cannot be costed statically. The value 0 means “not costed”, not “free”. Excise duty: €8.2bn is the 2025 yield according to a CRE note of September 2026, taken up by a comparison website. The upper bound of €10bn comes from a projection for 2026, not official. Tariffs differ by consumer category, so a decrease of X €/MWh does not convert exactly. VAT: the Institut Montaigne costing also covers fuels, and the EU does not allow the reduced rate on fuels in mainland France. This sub-lever intersects with the “Taxes on fuel and energy” lever in domain C: it is assigned to a single lever to avoid double counting. VAT at 5.5% on energy is under the « tva » (VAT) lever (once only); leaving the European market has no measurable static budgetary cost. Target prices (editors' decision of 18 October 2026, the same for all candidates): any target price for electricity or gas (€75/MWh, €100/MWh, a 30% decrease, prices based on production costs, contract for difference, tariff freeze) is not costed, with the same reason, word for word: “Target price: no budgetary cost as long as the gap with the market price is not offset by the State; if it is, it becomes spending (benchmark: the 2022-2024 tariff shield, costed by the Cour des comptes).” Only tax measures are costed (the excise duty here, VAT under the « tva » (VAT) lever), on the same base for all. Excise duty rate for sites of 36 kVA or less, coefficient calculated by the editors: 146.4 TWh consumed in 2025 by residential sites and 37 TWh by small non-residential sites, i.e. 183 TWh (CRE, 2025 data); €1/MWh is worth €0.183bn excluding VAT (lower bound). Central value, 0.212: the 20% VAT on the excise duty paid by households (146.4 TWh), i.e. 0.2 × 0.146 ≈ 0.029 more; that paid by businesses is recoverable. Upper bound, 0.220: VAT counted on the 183 TWh. Same convention as for the excise duty on fuels. Consumption follows the weather and electrification: the coefficient is not updated to 2032. Tariff benchmarks: an order published in the Journal officiel of 31 January 2024 raised, from 1 February 2024, the rates lowered by the tariff shield from €1 to €21/MWh for households and from €0.5 to €20.5/MWh for businesses (+€20/MWh); the excise duty on natural gas for households has been €16.66/MWh since 1 August 2026 (€16.39/MWh from 1 February to 31 July 2026). A convergence of excise duties on gas and electricity can be budget-neutral: the version voted by the Senate in November 2025 (−€3/MWh on household electricity, +€4.40/MWh on gas) was presented as such; it was not retained in the finance act.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for David Lisnard

  1. Le Diplomate, grand entretien (repris sur unenouvelleenergie.fr), 6 October 2025. Words of David Lisnard. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme. Read the source (Le Diplomate, grand entretien (repris sur unenouvelleenergie.fr)).

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