Déchiffrer 2027

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Minimum incomes and benefits, Bruno Retailleau

Family allowances: €240/month per child from the first, if five years of work

Direction of change: change of another kind, or uncertain direction, compared with current law.

The lever. Benefits paid to families from the second child: universality, means-related adjustment, payment from the first child. Direction rule: ↑ higher allowances or open to more families.

« Fusionner douze dispositifs en un Revenu familial de 240 euros par enfant, versé chaque mois à tous, dès le premier enfant, de la naissance à dix-huit ans. Le conditionner à une résidence régulière en France et à l'exercice d'une activité professionnelle depuis au moins cinq ans. »1

Translation by the editorsMerge twelve schemes into a Revenu familial (family income) of 240 euros per child, paid every month to all, from the first child, from birth to eighteen. Make it conditional on lawful residence in France and on having worked for at least five years.

Encoding

Position linked to an option of the cost schedule, with no parameter to set: see the costing.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

amount not broken down

Amount announced with no readable annual amount for this position alone: « un coût du Revenu familial de 40,3 milliards hors bonification du troisième enfant » [“a cost of the Family Income of 40.3 billion excluding the third-child bonus”] (about €1.5bn more, measure no. 76), against €41bn of abolished schemes and €0.6bn to €0.8bn of administrative gains: reform presented « à budget constant » [“on a constant budget”]

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

−€23bn

per year for the public accounts, new spending, range −€24bn to −€23bn.

The calculation

  • Family income of €240 per month per minor child, from the first child, in place of family allowances (supplements included) and the complément familial (net cost of these two benefits; family quotient counted under its own lever): Option costed by the source: a cost of €23.4bn (23.4 to 23.9) per year.

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Family income of €240 per month per minor child: €39.9bn gross (13.87 million minor children living in families, Insee), minus family allowances, age supplement included, and the complément familial, which the measure names among the schemes abolished (€16.5bn in 2025). The family quotient, also abolished, is counted at its own lever (the candidate's family quotient position). Not counted: the condition of five years of professional activity and lawful residence, which excludes an unpublished number of families and would reduce the cost, the other merged schemes that the measure does not name (the « douze dispositifs » [“twelve schemes”] are not listed), and the third-child bonus (measure no. 76, €1.5bn according to the measure's page, €3bn according to the Famille booklet).

Coefficient calculated by the editors from solidarites.gouv.fr, Revalorisation annuelle au 1er avril 2026: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.

Central value brought down to the smallest amount: cost acknowledged as overestimated, the condition of five years of employment not being deducted; the central value remains the lower bound of the costing (2025 spending).

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Family allowances paid from the 2nd child: €153.01 per month for 2 children since 1 April 2026 (basic amount), adjusted according to income since 2015, uprated every 1 April in line with inflation over the previous twelve months. Age supplement postponed from 14 to 18 for children born on or after 1 March 2012 (Decree No. 2026-138, in force on 1 March 2026). Spending: €13,909m in 2025, all schemes (Commission des comptes de la sécurité sociale (Social Security Accounts Committee), October 2026), €13,711m forecast for 2026 and €13,407m for 2027; 4.69 million households receiving benefits from the Caf (family allowance funds) in December 2025.

Horizon. Full year, €bn per year, in 2025 euros for the coefficient; each option in the euros of its source

Limits. Coefficient calculated by the editors: 1% of €13.909bn (2025, central value), of €13.407bn forecast for 2027 after the postponement of the age supplement (lower bound) and rounded to 0.14 as upper bound; the former coefficient (0.13, 1% of €13.04bn in 2022) was replaced on 18 October 2026. The text introducing means-testing (LFSS 2015) is not cited at source. End of means-testing: low = €750m per year (National Assembly fact-finding mission, 2020, report no. 3168, based on a 2016 Cnaf study, amount at the time); central and high = yield of means-testing estimated at about €1bn in 2025 by the Direction de la sécurité sociale (same report). The Senate costed abolition at €830m in 2022. From the first child: DSS costing for €70 per month without means-testing; central = net cost after the decrease in RSA and in-work benefit (€1.8bn), high = gross cost (€2.8bn); the National Assembly's LexImpact unit gives €3.58bn for €75 per month means-tested (different scope, not counted). A position that does not state the amount paid for the first child is not linked to this option. Age supplement: €1.28bn per year at full roll-out, reached in 2030 (€1.17bn in 2029), and €210m in the first year: costing by the Direction de la sécurité sociale on Cnaf data, taken up by the HCFEA (note adopted on 10 March 2026). The first three options are each costed all other things being equal: ending means-testing also applies to the age supplement, hence a slight overlap if both are adopted (declared overlap). Option reserve-francais (decision of 18 October 2026, same rule for all candidates who reserve a benefit for French nationals): lower bound, share of foreigners in the population (9.1% in 2025, Insee) × family allowance spending (€13,909m in 2025), i.e. €1.27bn; upper bound, the share of allowances paid to foreign recipients, which neither the Cnaf nor the Drees publishes: pending a reply from the Cnaf (request sent), it is taken as equal to the lower bound and the position is marked partial. Benchmarks not counted: at 31 December 2013, about 2% of family allowance beneficiaries were nationals of the European Economic Area or Switzerland and 6% of other States (headcounts, ministerial reply to written question no. 29143, Cnaf data); about 11% of the households receiving benefits from the Caf, all benefits combined, are of foreign nationality (Cnaf, December 2025, no reference year). As foreign families have more children on average, the share of spending may exceed the share of households. Reading: nationality of the recipient; a family in which one parent is French and the other is not could remain covered, which would reduce the saving. Legal compliance not assessed (principle of equality, European Union law, bilateral social security agreements), as elsewhere in the cost schedule. Option revenu-familial-240 (calculation by the editors, 18 October 2026): €240 × 12 months × 13,868,000 minor children living in families (Insee, 2023 census, France excluding Mayotte), i.e. €39.94bn gross, minus the two abolished benefits that the measure names and that fall under this lever: family allowances, age supplement included (€13,909m in 2025), and the complément familial (€2,593m), i.e. €23.4bn net; upper bound with the spending forecast for 2027 (€13,407m and €2,605m, CCSS), €23.9bn. The family quotient, which the measure also abolishes, is counted under the quotient-familial lever (€12.5bn to €16.5bn). Not counted: the condition of five years of professional activity and lawful residence, which excludes an unpublished number of families (the cost is therefore overestimated accordingly), the other merged schemes that the measure does not name, and the third-child bonus (separate measure). The candidate counts 14 million minors (€40.3bn).

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. Projet Retailleau, mesure n°75 « Verser 240 euros par mois par enfant mineur ». Read the programme page.

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