Bruno Retailleau’s programme: what we were able to cost

Effects on households

Eight model households, annual disposable income, calculated with OpenFisca-France for only the measures the engine can simulate (5 measures). A zero difference means that these measures do not affect this household, not that the programme changes nothing for it. *: at least one simulated measure rests on a reading by the editors. The detail, household by household, and the comparison with the other candidates.

The public accounts

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

Line by line

• LeverPositionEffect on the public accounts, per year
• Family allowances€240/month per child from the first, if five years of workAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from solidarites.gouv.fr, Revalorisation annuelle au 1er avril 2026: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: cost acknowledged as overestimated, the condition of five years of employment not being deducted; the central value remains the lower bound of the costing (2025 spending). Family income of €240 per month per minor child: €39.9bn gross (13.87 million minor children living in families, Insee), minus family allowances, age supplement included, and the complément familial, which the measure names among the schemes abolished (€16.5bn in 2025). The family quotient, also abolished, is counted at its own lever (the candidate's family quotient position). Not counted: the condition of five years of professional activity and lawful residence, which excludes an unpublished number of families and would reduce the cost, the other merged schemes that the measure does not name (the « douze dispositifs » [“twelve schemes”] are not listed), and the third-child bonus (measure no. 76, €1.5bn according to the measure's page, €3bn according to the Famille booklet).−€23bnnew spending, −€24bn to −€23bn
• Numbers and pay of civil servants400,000 retiring staff not replaced, for €25bn of savings* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: -150,000 to 150,000 staff). Assumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, « L'essentiel » sur le PLF 2026, programme « Fonction publique » de la mission « Transformation et fonctions publiques » (page 2): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. 400,000 retiring staff not replaced over the five-year term, costed at the average cost of a public employee (lower end of the range at the cost of a local government employee); beyond 150,000 staff (range measured by the Cour des comptes), linear extrapolation. The candidate announces €25bn of savings (400,000 × €62,000 including contributions), i.e. about €0.63bn per 10,000 staff, at the level of the full employer cost (€0.62bn, upper bound) rather than the cost excluding contributions used for the central value (€0.42bn).+€17bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€11bn to +€25bn
• Family quotientFamily quotient abolished, merged into a family income of €240 per childAssumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: upper bound (Cour des comptes, €16.5bn) measured on the whole family component of the tax, specific half-shares included, which the measure does not target: gain overestimated at this level, the central value is the lower bound (IGF-IGAS, €12.5bn, half-shares for children only). Reading adopted: measure no. 75 abolishes the family quotient (« Les dispositifs supprimés, allocations familiales, majoration pour âge, complément familial et quotient familial, représentent 41 milliards d'euros » [“The schemes abolished, family allowances, age supplement, complément familial and family quotient, represent 41 billion euros”]); only the half-shares for children are counted, since the measure replaces child-related aid with the family income. The marital quotient and the specific half-shares (single parents, disability, widowhood, single people who have raised a child), which the measure does not name, are not counted. Cost-schedule option: €12.5bn of revenue (IGF-IGAS 2026, 2024 tax, half-shares for children) to €16.5bn (Cour des comptes, 2021). The upper bound covers more than the children's share: drawn from the work of André and Sireyjol (Insee), it measures the whole family component of the tax, specific half-shares included (« L'ensemble de ces parts, charges spécifiques comprises, est un dispositif familial » [“All of these shares, specific charges included, are a family scheme”], Insee Analyses no. 53, June 2020; €1.7bn of specific shares in 2024 according to IGF-IGAS); the central value is therefore brought down to the lower bound. The other schemes abolished, family allowances, age supplement included, and complément familial, are counted at the candidate's family allowances position (family income net of these benefits): the reform, presented « à budget constant » [“on a constant budget”], is read across the two positions together. Static costing.+€13bnnew revenue, +€13bn to +€17bn
• Reductions in social contributions on low wages€30bn less in contributions a year, half employees, half businessesAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Groupe d'experts SMIC, Rapport 2025 (25 novembre 2025): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Employee half: per-person rule, +€500 net a year for each employee (measure « Rendre 500 euros par an à tous les salariés » [“Give back 500 euros a year to all employees”], « environ 500 euros nets par an au salaire médian » [“about 500 euros net a year at the median wage”]), read as the same amount for all, i.e. €41.67 a month; base: 20.96 million private-sector salaried jobs (Insee, second quarter of 2026), about €10.5bn, against €15bn announced for this half. Other reading, a gain proportional to pay (€500 at the median net wage of €26,280 a year, i.e. 1.9% of each person's net pay): 1.9% × €551bn of private-sector net payroll, also about €10.5bn. Business half, not counted (partial costing): €15bn less in employer contributions « dès la première heure travaillée » [“from the first hour worked”], with no rate or schedule: pure amount with no named instrument, not costed (decision of 18 October 2026, common rule, like the production tax cuts announced as an amount); it was taken until now at €15bn. Same base and same method as the net pay increases of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Gabriel Attal and David Lisnard; calculation excluding civil servants: public employees are not counted (about €3bn more if they were, 6.06 million public jobs). Gross cost, before the announced funding (unemployment insurance, single social account and fraud, corporate income tax, incentive income), which is not deducted.−€10bnrevenue cut
• Production taxesC3S and CVAE abolished, industrial CFE exempted, forfait social overhauledPartial costing. The exemption of the industrial share of the CFE (business property contribution) (€1.9bn according to the candidate) is not in the cost schedule; the overhaul of the forfait social (€2.8bn according to him: incentive schemes, the above-statutory share of profit-sharing and individual retirement savings exempted), counted in his €15bn, falls under value sharing and is not costed. The abolition of the CVAE is already scheduled for 2030: zero cost in 2032.−€5.2bnrevenue cut
• New nuclear reactors8 EPR2s more than the first 6, if their construction goes well* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 0 to 6 reactors). Assumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from EDF, communiqué du 18 décembre 2025, « EDF shares its forecasted cost estimate of the EPR2 programme for €72.8bn » (copie d'archive du 13 octobre 2026, le site renvoyant une erreur 403): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: 2032 financing need acknowledged as overestimated beyond the six EPR2s of the PPE3, disbursed later than the coefficient assumes (2027 to 2038); lower bound: EDF's December 2025 estimate, 60% financed by a State loan paid out over 12 years (€0.61bn per reactor). Eight EPR2s ordered in addition to the first six, i.e. fourteen, if progress on the first six is judged satisfactory: the condition is read as met. Beyond the six EPR2s of the PPE3, the cost schedule coefficient (disbursements spread from 2027 to 2038) is extrapolated linearly: it probably overestimates the 2032 financing need, as the later reactors are disbursed later. State loan: weighs on the debt, shown separately from the balance.−€4.9bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}additional State lending, on the debt, −€9.6bn to −€4.9bn
• RSA (minimum income), amount and conditionsRSA replaced: €300/month, €550 with 15 h of training or job-seeking* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 0% to 10%). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from solidarites.gouv.fr, Revalorisation annuelle au 1er avril 2026: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Read as the RSA lump-sum amount reduced to €550 a month (against €651.69), i.e. −15.6%, the more cautious of the two amounts cited (€550 from fifteen hours of training or job seeking, €300 without); below 0% (measured range: increases of 0 to 10%, upratings from 2013 to 2017), linear extrapolation, at the coefficient of the 2020 order updated to 2026 euros (€0.17bn per point; 0.15 for the effect on recipient households alone); the exit of households that a cut in the lump sum would cause is not costed. Not costed: the €300 amount for recipients without those fifteen hours, the top-up reduced by 30% of earnings in work, the merger with the in-work benefit and the ASS, the absence of any link to family situation. The announced gain (€2bn) concerns the activity incentive income as a whole.+€2.7bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€2.3bn to +€2.7bn
• Local taxation€9,000 of VAT paid to the municipality for each new homeAssumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from SDES, Construction de logements : résultats à fin décembre 2025 (France entière): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading: « chaque logement neuf » [“each new home”] is a housing start; at the 2025 pace (274,611, SDES), €2.47bn a year, paid to municipalities to fund public facilities, and therefore counted as a new grant (convention of the grants lever); if municipalities saved the payment, the transfer would be neutral for general government as a whole. The candidate presents the payment as funded by the VAT on the homes built (« Aucun impôt nouveau, aucune charge nouvelle » [“No new tax, no new charge”]): this revenue, which assumes additional homes, is not counted.−€2.5bnrevenue cut
• Unemployment, max. benefit durationJune 2024 rules, negotiated terminations compensated for 6 months at most* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 18 to 24 months). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Unédic, Réforme 2023 : premiers effets de la réforme de contracyclicité: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated, since claimants after a negotiated termination (rupture conventionnelle), already compensated for 15 months at most, are included in the coefficient; for this parameter, the lower bound of the coefficient (€0.7bn per month) is also its central value. Reading adopted: « appliquer les règles de juin 2024 » [“apply the June 2024 rules”] means, for duration, their maximum benefit duration of 15 months, instead of 18 today below age 55; below 18 months (range measured by Unédic, 18 to 24 months), linear extrapolation. These rules were costed by Unédic against the law of the time, since amended (agreement of 15 November 2024, 2026 amendment): the cost schedule coefficient is applied to current law, as with Unédic's 2021 estimate for the repeals of the 2019-2021 reform costed for other candidates. The central coefficient (€0.7bn per month) is the lower bound of the range. Claimants after a negotiated termination, already compensated for 15 months at most since 1 September 2026, are included in the coefficient: the gain is overestimated by part of the saving from the amendment (€0.72bn to €0.945bn in all). Not costed: compensation for negotiated terminations limited to six months and capped, from which the candidate expects €7bn to €8bn, the rules for older workers planned in June 2024, and the end of entitlement on the third refusal of a reasonable job offer (obligations lever). The eligibility condition of the June 2024 rules is costed under the “access” lever.+€2.1bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€2.1bn to +€2.3bn
• Teachers' pay+€135 net at the start of a career, around +€300 mid-careerAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Enseignement scolaire: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Costed at the floor of the two amounts cited: €135 net a month for all teachers. Not costed: the mid-career supplement (about €300 net, i.e. €165 more), for lack of a breakdown of teachers by career stage; nothing is said about the end of career, counted here at the floor. The announced funding (resources freed up by the fall in pupil numbers, « plus de 3 milliards d'euros par an en fin de quinquennat » [“more than 3 billion euros a year by the end of the five-year term”]) is not deducted.−€1.6bnnew spending, −€2.6bn to −€1.6bn
• Profit sharing (participation, intéressement)Abolishes the employer contribution on employee share ownershipAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from PLFSS 2026, annexe 4, tableau 9, Coût total des exemptions d'assiette: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Costed: the 30% employer contribution on free share awards and stock options, about €1.5bn (editors' calculation: the increase in the rate from 20 to 30% in 2025 brings in €0.5bn; 30% of the €5.2bn base forecast for 2026 gives €1.56bn). Not costed: the forfait social on employer matching in securities and the other employee share ownership schemes, whose yield is not published. The overhaul of the forfait social in measure no. 34 (€2.8bn according to the candidate) is a separate measure, not costed.−€1.5bnrevenue cut, −€1.6bn to −€1.5bn
• Wind and solarNo more solar or offshore wind tenders, existing contracts honouredAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Délibération CRE n°2026-149 du 15 juillet 2026 (CSPE 2026-2027): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted (common rule for volume targets): no more support for photovoltaic installations commissioned from 1 January 2028 (first effect of the term), existing contracts honoured. Volume avoided in 2032, editors' calculation on the PPE3 trajectory: 2.9 GW supported in 2028 (PPE3 ceiling up to 2028), 3.4 GW a year in 2029 and 2030 (from 31 GW at the end of 2025 to 48 GW in 2030), 1.4 GW a year in 2031 and 2032 (bottom of the 2035 range, 55 GW), i.e. 12.5 GW and 15.3 TWh at the PPE3 load factor of 14%. Not costed (partial costing): the offshore wind tenders not yet awarded, whose farms would only come into service after 2032; the repeal of the electricity component of the PPE3, with no stated effect on onshore wind. The share of new photovoltaic capacity that would do without support is not isolated.+€1.4bnsaving, +€1.4bn to +€1.4bn
• Energy renovations per yearMaPrimeRénov' abolished (€2bn), a « relais » [“successor”] announced without detail* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 91,374 homes only). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Chiffres clés de l'Anah 2024 (DREAL Corse): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated, as the successor to MaPrimeRénov' announced by the candidate is not deducted; lower bound: average grant for a major renovation in a co-owned building (€11,818). Reading adopted: MaPrimeRénov', listed among the abolished « dispositifs sans résultat démontré » [“schemes with no demonstrated result”] (press fact sheet no. 4, €2bn of savings in 2032), is costed as the end of grants for major renovations; per-measure grants are not costed. Fact sheet no. 14 gives back to households a « Relais de MaPrimeRénov’ » [“successor to MaPrimeRénov’”], counted together with VAT on energy saving certificates (€3bn together), with no form or amount of its own: it is not deducted, and the gain is overestimated accordingly.+€1.1bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€1.1bn to +€3.3bn
• Unemployment, work period required to qualify for benefitsJune 2024 rules applied, recharging of rights raised to 9 or 12 months* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 4 to 6 months). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Unédic, « Impact de l'évolution des règles d'assurance chômage au 1er juillet 2021 » (estimations de mars 2021), page 7 du PDF: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: « appliquer les règles de juin 2024 » [“apply the June 2024 rules”] means, for access, their condition of 8 months' work in the last 20 months to open entitlement, instead of 6 months in 24 today; beyond 6 months (range measured by Unédic, 4 to 6 months), linear extrapolation. The coefficient (Unédic, March 2021) is applied to current law without updating, as for the repeals of the 2019-2021 reform costed for other candidates. Not costed: the reference period reduced from 24 to 20 months, which tightens access further, and the minimum period for recharging entitlement raised to 9 or 12 months. The 15-month maximum duration under the same rules is costed under the “duration” lever.+€0.8bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€0.6bn to +€1bn
• Industrial aid and reshoringFrance Production fund of €600m a yearAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Candidate’s amount, taken as is. Candidate's amount, taken as is (rule on amounts taken over): the €400m a year from the State (€200m) and the regions (€200m), read as new appropriations (the text does not say whether they are redeployed): editors' assumption. The €200m from European funds is not French public spending: it is not counted. The enhanced tax depreciation allowance for productive equipment, with no amount, is not costed.−€0.4bnnew spending
• State medical aid (Aide médicale de l'État)AME reduced to essential care and minors (€0.7bn expected)Assumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, commission des affaires sociales, L'Essentiel PLF 2026 « Santé » (avis Florence Lassarade): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: the AME « réduite aux soins essentiels et aux mineurs » [“restricted to essential care and to minors”] is costed using the cost schedule option that limits the basket of care (emergencies, serious illnesses, pregnancy, vaccinations); continued care for minors is not modelled separately.+€0.4bnsaving, +€0.2bn to +€0.7bn
• Right of asylumAsylum applications examined outside the borders, after constitutional revisionAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, commission des finances, note de présentation PLF 2026, mission « Immigration, asile et intégration »: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated: shifts to ordinary emergency accommodation and State medical aid are not deducted; the central value is the lower bound of the cost per application (rule common to positions costed through the gain per asylum application). Reading adopted, the same as for an asylum application admitted only at the border: applications are no longer examined in France, and material support for applicants (allowance and accommodation) is no longer due on the territory for the roughly 150,000 annual applications (151,665 in 2025, minus 1,677 applications at the border). Not costed: the cost of examination outside the borders (agreements with third countries), unknown, and the knock-on effects on emergency accommodation and state medical aid, which make the gain overestimated. Compliance with international and European law not assessed (constitutional revision announced).+€0.2bnsaving, +€0.2bn to +€1.4bn
• University tuition feesNo more automatic fee exemption for non-European studentsAssumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from IGF-IGESR, Modèle économique des établissements publics de l'enseignement supérieur (vie-publique): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: no exemption from differentiated fees for non-European students, beyond what the decree of 19 May 2026 still allows (20% of the students concerned in 2028), i.e. at most €0.07bn a year. Other reading: the decree, which already abolishes the near-general exemption, is sufficient (status quo).+€0.07bnnew revenue
• Tax and social security expendituresEnd over 5 years of the corporate tax exemption for social landlords€0bnzero cost
• Wealth tax (IFI, ISF)Against the Zucman tax, listed among the left’s « chantages » [“blackmail”] (LR, 2025)€0bnzero cost

Amounts announced by the candidate

The amounts that Bruno Retailleau puts forward, with the direction given to them (“+”: gain for the public accounts, “−”: cost). They are never added to the totals or to each other. The gap with our calculation is only given when both cover the same scope: not for a position that is not costed, costed in part, based on an assumption by the editors, or whose amount is the candidate’s own, taken as is; and only when the announcement falls outside the range of our calculation (otherwise: “within the range”).

• LeverWhat the candidate saysAnnounced, per year
• Unemployment, max. benefit duration« Un gain annuel de 12,5 à 15,7 milliards d'euros » [“An annual gain of 12.5 to 15.7 billion euros”] for the whole of measure no. 29, of which « 4 à 5 milliards pour l'application des règles de juin 2024, 7 à 8 milliards pour les ruptures conventionnelles » [“4 to 5 billion from applying the June 2024 rules, 7 to 8 billion from negotiated terminations”]Our calculation: +€2.1bn per year. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Legal retirement agePension reform presented as a saving: « La réforme des âges rapportera près de 9 milliards d'euros à l'horizon 2032 » [“The age reform will bring in nearly 9 billion euros by 2032”] (measure no. 108, updated on 15 October 2026); the candidate's press fact sheets « Rétablir l'ordre dans les comptes publics » (12 October 2026, fact sheet no. 6) count €12bn in 2032 for the « Mesures d'âge (63/65 ans, carrières longues) » [“Age measures (63/65, long careers)”], out of €42bn expected from pensions.Position not costed. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Teachers' pay« Financé au dernier euro, sans un impôt nouveau » [“Funded to the last euro, without a single new tax”]: with 1.7 million fewer pupils in ten years, the decline « libère plus de 3 milliards d'euros par an en fin de quinquennat » [“frees up more than 3 billion euros a year by the end of the five-year term”], which the candidate earmarks « aux rémunérations et aux conditions de travail » [“for pay and working conditions”] (measure no. 15). Cost of the increase itself not given.Our calculation: −€1.6bn per year. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Industrial aid and reshoring€600m a year: €200m from the State, €200m from the regions, €200m from European funds (measure no. 44, section « Le financement »); plus an enhanced tax depreciation allowance (sur-amortissement) for productive equipment, with no amount.Our calculation: −€0.4bn per year. Candidate’s amount, taken as is.−€0.6bnnew spending
• Announced savings€197bn of savings in 2032, « dont 146 Md€ pour le déficit et 51 Md€ rendus » [“of which €146bn for the deficit and €51bn given back”] (measure no. 116). The candidate's press fact sheets « Rétablir l'ordre dans les comptes publics » (12 October 2026) split them between the State (€56bn, €32bn and €8bn, fact sheets nos. 3 to 5), the social sphere (€42bn, €4bn, €30bn, €7bn, €4bn and €4bn, fact sheets nos. 6 to 11) and local authorities (€10bn, fact sheet no. 12); of the €51bn given back, €21bn goes to households and €30bn to businesses, to which are added €14bn described as self-financed (fact sheet no. 14).Position not costed. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• State grants to local authorities« 10 Md€ en 2032 sur les seules dépenses de fonctionnement hors personnel et hors prestations sociales » [“€10bn in 2032 on operating expenditure alone, excluding staff and excluding social benefits”] of local authorities (press fact sheet no. 12)Position not costed. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Numbers and pay of civil servants« 25 Md€ pour les départs en retraite non remplacés » [“€25bn for retirements not replaced”] in 2032 (measure no. 118); basis of calculation: « 400 000 × 62 000 € chargés (DGAFP, FIPECO) » [“400,000 × €62,000 including contributions (DGAFP, FIPECO)”], departures « rendus possibles par l’IA (150 000 postes supprimés ; 150 000 agents remis sur le terrain) et par 1 623 heures effectives » [“made possible by AI (150,000 posts abolished; 150,000 staff returned to frontline work) and by 1,623 hours actually worked”] (press fact sheets of 12 October 2026, fact sheet no. 3).Our calculation: +€17bn per year. No gap calculated: costing based on an assumption by the editors.+€25bngain for the public accounts
• Public broadcasting€2.6bn in 2032 for the « Culture et médias » [“Culture and media”] line, calculated on the « Dotation audiovisuel public ≈ 4 Md€ » [“Public broadcasting grant ≈ €4bn”] and the « Pass Culture, programme 361 » (press fact sheet no. 4); public broadcasting's share not given.Position not costed. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote

What this costing does not measure

• Growth and employmentThe effect of the measures on activity and employment, and the revenue gained or lost as a result; it depends on the economic model used: models and feedback effects.
• Education, health, researchLong-term effects on human capital, productivity and innovation.
• InequalityThe distribution of gains and losses across the whole population, beyond the eight model households.
• Public servicesWhat new spending or savings change in the quality of the services provided and in access to them.
• Environment and climateEffects on emissions, natural resources and adaptation to climate change.
• Sovereignty and external dependenceEffects on the country’s dependence on other countries: energy, industry, defence, supplies.
• Interest rates on the debtThe effect of a programme on the terms on which the State borrows, which also depend on the make-up of the holders of its debt.