Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Organisation of the system, Bruno Retailleau

Funded share: Funded account per employee (1% of pay): 25 to 30% of the pension

Direction of change: creation of a scheme, compared with current law.

The lever. Role given to retirement savings invested on the markets, alongside pay-as-you-go, in which the contributions of those in work pay the pensions. Direction rule: ↑ larger funded share.

« Le compte est alimenté par une cotisation de 1 % du salaire, dans la limite du plafond de la Sécurité sociale, versée pour moitié par le salarié et pour moitié par l'employeur, soit 6 milliards d'euros à l'horizon 2032. […] L'objectif est qu'à terme la capitalisation finance 25 à 30 % de la retraite des jeunes qui entrent aujourd'hui sur le marché du travail. »1

Translation by the editorsThe account is funded by a contribution of 1% of salary, up to the Social Security ceiling, paid half by the employee and half by the employer, i.e. 6 billion euros by 2032. […] The aim is that, in time, funded pensions finance 25 to 30% of the pension of young people entering the labour market today.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

amount not broken down

Amount announced with no readable annual amount for this position alone: « soit 6 milliards d'euros à l'horizon 2032 » [“i.e. 6 billion euros by 2032”] paid into the accounts (measure no. 113); the press fact sheets of 12 October 2026 (fact sheet no. 6) count these €6bn, and €4.3bn for the doubled additional contribution on civil servants' bonuses, within the €42bn expected from pensions.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

New contribution of 1% of salary (€6bn in 2032 according to the candidate), paid into an individual account on top of pay-as-you-go contributions, which do not change, and additional contribution on bonuses doubled in the civil service; target return of at least 4% a year. This is not a shift of points from pay-as-you-go, the only option costed in the cost schedule, and the effect on the general government balance depends on how these accounts, managed by the social partners, are classified, which the measure does not specify.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. The mandatory system is pay-as-you-go. The only funded exceptions: the RAFP (civil service, €43.3bn in provisions) and the FRR (€21.2bn in assets at end-2023, which pays €1.45bn per year to the Cades in 2025). Voluntary retirement savings (PER) accounted for €8.3bn in benefits and €18.5bn in contributions in 2022, for outstanding assets of €292.7bn at end-2023. Their tax and social advantages cost about €1.8bn per year.

Horizon. €bn per year, 2025 base: revenue loss for the pay-as-you-go scheme during the transition, pensions unchanged.

Limits. Parameter “payment at the first job” (18 October 2026): arithmetic coefficient, 773,000 young people who left the education system for the first time in 2021 (Céreq, Génération survey) × amount paid, i.e. €0.77bn per year for €1,000; each leaver is assumed to obtain a job one day and to receive the payment once, the annual flow of first jobs then being equal to that of leavers. Leavers in 2017 numbered 746,000 (Céreq). Any switch to funded pensions has a double cost: the diverted contributions no longer finance current pensions, which the State must continue to pay. The range uses the yield of one point of contribution to the general scheme: €4.8bn (employee share, uncapped), €6.2bn (below the ceiling) and €7.6bn (employer share, uncapped), according to the DSS. A public endowment to a sovereign pension fund is costed as a lump sum equal to the amount paid in, hence the value 0 to be filled in according to the programme. Future financial returns are not counted in a static costing. A mere new tax incentive for the PER (retirement savings plan) is costed as a tax expenditure, from the €1.8bn benchmark. A public endowment to a funded pension fund is costed at the amount paid in, which is announced by the candidate; the cost of retirement savings incentives (€1.8bn) is a benchmark. Parameter “endowment at birth”: arithmetic coefficient, number of births in France in 2025 (Insee, 643,905) × amount paid, i.e. €0.64bn per year for €1,000. The number of births has fallen every year since 2010: the cost follows. Newborns of French nationality are slightly fewer than births in France. The payment is counted as spending (a transfer to the child); if it remained the property of a public fund, it could be classified as a financial transaction, which weighs on the debt and not on the deficit. Tax-exempt family top-ups and the fund's future return are not costed.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. avecretailleau.fr, mesure n° 113 « Donner à chaque salarié un capital pour sa retraite ». Read the programme page.

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