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FREN

School, Gabriel Attal

Pupils per class, primary: Fewer than 20 pupils per class in primary school

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Maximum number of pupils per class in primary school that the programme commits to respecting. Direction rule: ↑ more pupils per class.

« Je n’y vois pas une source d’économies mais au contraire une opportunité pour avoir moins d’élèves par classe notamment en primaire où nous devons viser moins de 20 élèves par classe comme dans les meilleurs systèmes éducatifs européens. »1

Translation by the editorsI do not see it as a source of savings but on the contrary as an opportunity to have fewer pupils per class, in particular in primary school where we must aim for fewer than 20 pupils per class, as in the best European education systems.

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Average pupils per class, state primary schools21 pupils20 pupils (assumption by the editors, see the costing)full year 2032, €bn/year, compared with current policies

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

−€0.5bn

per year for the public accounts, new spending, range −€0.9bn to −€0.5bn.

The calculation

  • Average pupils per class, state primary schools: (20 − 21) ÷ -1 = 1 times “1 pupil fewer per class on average, state primary schools (about 11,800 additional teaching posts, at 2029-2032 enrolment)”, each a cost of €0.5bn (0.5 to 0.85).

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Reading adopted, the same as for Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Tondelier: an average number of pupils per class in public primary schools, costed at the bound of the target (20 pupils); « moins de 20 » [“fewer than 20”] would cost more, and a cap much more. The announced funding, the resources freed up by the demographic decline, is not deducted: current policies cut these posts, so it is a cost relative to them. Overlap with “Numbers and pay of civil servants” examined: estimated common base zero, both amounts are added. No source says that an overall public sector headcount target is counted net of the teaching posts created on this lever: by default, the common base is zero and the two amounts are added together.

Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Enseignement scolaire (O. Paccaud): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. No general legal cap. Cap of 24 pupils in grande section (final year of nursery school), CP and CE1, and halving of these classes in REP/REP+ since 2017. Average in public elementary schools: 21.3 pupils per class in 2024; the minister announces 21.0 for the first time at the start of the 2025 school year. Primary level (public and private): 6.15 million pupils today, fewer than 5.7 million forecast in 2029 (DEPP, cited by the Senate).

Horizon. full year 2032, €bn/year, compared with current policies

Limits. Calculation: posts = P/(s×(s−1)), with P ≈ 4.95m public-sector pupils in 2029-2032 (editors' assumption: 87% of 5.7m) and s = 21, i.e. about 11,800 posts. Cost per post at the centre: €48,336 excluding the CAS Pensions (State pensions special account), brought back to pay for active service (48,336 / 1.145 ≈ €42,200), i.e. €0.5bn; high value: about €70k per post counting the contribution to the CAS Pensions. “Net” convention (R9), the same as for the public sector pay index point and public sector headcount: at the centre, cost excluding all employer contributions paid to other public administrations (CAS Pensions, employer social contributions); as upper bound, full employer cost. The published “excluding CAS” cost still includes employer contributions other than the CAS: it is brought back to pay for active service alone by the ratio “average loaded cost excluding CAS / pay for active service” from the PAP 2024 (Enseignement scolaire, entry-exit costs: 47,634 / 41,610 = 1.145 in primary, 51,198 / 44,265 = 1.157 in secondary, about 1.15 on average; editors' calculation). The cost is not linear: each pupil fewer costs more than the previous one (going from 21 to 18 costs more than three times the unit). Decisive point: current policies cut posts in line with demographics (4,018 in 2026). A candidate who “maintains posts” therefore reduces class sizes at no cost compared with 2026, but at a cost compared with the reference trajectory. The DEPP note on class sizes and the RERS (education.gouv.fr) were not accessible: the figures come from the Senate, not from the DEPP. Option moyenne-19 (average of 19): same method, same sources and same assumptions as the parameter (4.95m public-sector pupils in 2029-2032). Posts = P/19 − P/21 = 4.95m × (1/19 − 1/21) ≈ 24,800, at about €42,200 (€48,336 excluding the CAS Pensions, brought back to pay for active service), i.e. €1.05bn; €1.74bn at about €70k per post with the contribution to the CAS Pensions. Caution: the lever is defined as a maximum number of pupils per class, whereas the cost schedule costs an average. A cap at a given level costs considerably more than an average at the same level. A position is therefore costed only if the text targets an average.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Gabriel Attal

  1. attalpresident.fr, chantier « École » (page non datée). Read the programme page.

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