Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

School, Édouard Philippe

Pupils per class, primary: Reduce class sizes where necessary, with no numerical target

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Maximum number of pupils per class in primary school that the programme commits to respecting. Direction rule: ↑ more pupils per class.

« Avec près d'un million d'élèves en moins, nous avons les moyens de continuer à réduire les effectifs dans les classes là où c'est nécessaire et de mieux rémunérer les professeurs sans dégrader les finances publiques »1

Translation by the editorsWith almost a million fewer pupils, we have the means to continue reducing class sizes where necessary and to pay teachers better without damaging the public finances

Words of Édouard Philippe, LCP, d’après son entretien au Figaro, 24 August 2026. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme.

No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 18 October 2026.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The cited source does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

Reduction « là où c'est nécessaire » [“where necessary”], with no target or scope: nothing to cost.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. No general legal cap. Cap of 24 pupils in grande section (final year of nursery school), CP and CE1, and halving of these classes in REP/REP+ since 2017. Average in public elementary schools: 21.3 pupils per class in 2024; the minister announces 21.0 for the first time at the start of the 2025 school year. Primary level (public and private): 6.15 million pupils today, fewer than 5.7 million forecast in 2029 (DEPP, cited by the Senate).

Horizon. full year 2032, €bn/year, compared with current policies

Limits. Calculation: posts = P/(s×(s−1)), with P ≈ 4.95m public-sector pupils in 2029-2032 (editors' assumption: 87% of 5.7m) and s = 21, i.e. about 11,800 posts. Cost per post at the centre: €48,336 excluding the CAS Pensions (State pensions special account), brought back to pay for active service (48,336 / 1.145 ≈ €42,200), i.e. €0.5bn; high value: about €70k per post counting the contribution to the CAS Pensions. “Net” convention (R9), the same as for the public sector pay index point and public sector headcount: at the centre, cost excluding all employer contributions paid to other public administrations (CAS Pensions, employer social contributions); as upper bound, full employer cost. The published “excluding CAS” cost still includes employer contributions other than the CAS: it is brought back to pay for active service alone by the ratio “average loaded cost excluding CAS / pay for active service” from the PAP 2024 (Enseignement scolaire, entry-exit costs: 47,634 / 41,610 = 1.145 in primary, 51,198 / 44,265 = 1.157 in secondary, about 1.15 on average; editors' calculation). The cost is not linear: each pupil fewer costs more than the previous one (going from 21 to 18 costs more than three times the unit). Decisive point: current policies cut posts in line with demographics (4,018 in 2026). A candidate who “maintains posts” therefore reduces class sizes at no cost compared with 2026, but at a cost compared with the reference trajectory. The DEPP note on class sizes and the RERS (education.gouv.fr) were not accessible: the figures come from the Senate, not from the DEPP. Option moyenne-19 (average of 19): same method, same sources and same assumptions as the parameter (4.95m public-sector pupils in 2029-2032). Posts = P/19 − P/21 = 4.95m × (1/19 − 1/21) ≈ 24,800, at about €42,200 (€48,336 excluding the CAS Pensions, brought back to pay for active service), i.e. €1.05bn; €1.74bn at about €70k per post with the contribution to the CAS Pensions. Caution: the lever is defined as a maximum number of pupils per class, whereas the cost schedule costs an average. A cap at a given level costs considerably more than an average at the same level. A position is therefore costed only if the text targets an average.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Édouard Philippe

  1. LCP, d’après son entretien au Figaro, 24 August 2026. Words of Édouard Philippe. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme. Read the source (LCP, d’après son entretien au Figaro).

Contest this encoding (prefilled email; procedure and deadlines)