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Organisation of the system, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Funded share: €10,000 per newborn, locked until retirement in a public fund

Direction of change: creation of a scheme, compared with current law.

The lever. Role given to retirement savings invested on the markets, alongside pay-as-you-go, in which the contributions of those in work pay the pensions. Direction rule: ↑ larger funded share.

« Doter chaque nouveau-né français d’un capital de 10 000 euros qui sera bloqué jusqu’à sa retraite et qui sera géré par un fonds public de capitalisation français, inspiré du modèle du fonds souverain norvégien. […] Cette mesure coûtera environ 6 milliards d’euros par an à l’État. »1

Translation by the editorsGive every French newborn capital of 10,000 euros, which will be locked until their retirement and managed by a French public funded-pension fund, inspired by the model of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund. […] This measure will cost the State about €6 billion a year.

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Public endowment paid into a retirement account at each birth0 € per birth10,000 € per birth (assumption by the editors, see the costing)€bn per year, 2025 base: revenue loss for the pay-as-you-go scheme during the transition, pensions unchanged

Costing

Announced by the candidate

−€6bn

per year, cost to the public accounts. « Cette mesure coûtera environ 6 milliards d’euros par an à l’État. » [“This measure will cost the State about €6 billion a year.”]

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

−€6.4bn

per year for the public accounts, new spending.

The calculation

  • Public endowment paid into a retirement account at each birth: (10,000 − 0) ÷ 1,000 = 10 times “€1,000 paid at each birth (643,905 births in France in 2025)”, each a cost of €0.64bn (0.64 to 0.64). Central value brought down to the smallest amount (€0.64bn per step).

Assumption by the editors. Calculated on all births in France (Insee): the text targets French newborns, fewer in a proportion not sourced here. The amount is therefore an upper bound. Counted as spending; capital managed by a public fund could be a financial transaction (debt), as for Gabriel Attal's position. On 11 October 2026 (Europe 1), the candidate repeated the measure (« un livret épargne capitalisation avec 10.000 euros » [“a capitalisation savings account with 10,000 euros”], « intouchable » [“untouchable”] until age 60) and said he would finance it by freeing up « la moitié de la contribution à l'Union Européenne » [“half of the contribution to the European Union”]: resource costed under the “Place in the European Union” lever (€14.22bn), not deducted here.

Coefficient calculated by the editors from Céreq Bref n° 487-488, « S'insérer dans un monde instable : le diplôme reste une valeur sûre » (enquête 2024 auprès de la Génération 2021): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.

Central value brought down to the smallest amount: amount acknowledged to be an overestimate, since all births in France are counted and not only French newborns; the cost schedule coefficient has only one value (number of births times the amount), lower bound included: amount unchanged.

Figure announced by the candidate: no gap calculated: costing based on an assumption by the editors.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. The mandatory system is pay-as-you-go. The only funded exceptions: the RAFP (civil service, €43.3bn in provisions) and the FRR (€21.2bn in assets at end-2023, which pays €1.45bn per year to the Cades in 2025). Voluntary retirement savings (PER) accounted for €8.3bn in benefits and €18.5bn in contributions in 2022, for outstanding assets of €292.7bn at end-2023. Their tax and social advantages cost about €1.8bn per year.

Horizon. €bn per year, 2025 base: revenue loss for the pay-as-you-go scheme during the transition, pensions unchanged.

Limits. Parameter “payment at the first job” (18 October 2026): arithmetic coefficient, 773,000 young people who left the education system for the first time in 2021 (Céreq, Génération survey) × amount paid, i.e. €0.77bn per year for €1,000; each leaver is assumed to obtain a job one day and to receive the payment once, the annual flow of first jobs then being equal to that of leavers. Leavers in 2017 numbered 746,000 (Céreq). Any switch to funded pensions has a double cost: the diverted contributions no longer finance current pensions, which the State must continue to pay. The range uses the yield of one point of contribution to the general scheme: €4.8bn (employee share, uncapped), €6.2bn (below the ceiling) and €7.6bn (employer share, uncapped), according to the DSS. A public endowment to a sovereign pension fund is costed as a lump sum equal to the amount paid in, hence the value 0 to be filled in according to the programme. Future financial returns are not counted in a static costing. A mere new tax incentive for the PER (retirement savings plan) is costed as a tax expenditure, from the €1.8bn benchmark. A public endowment to a funded pension fund is costed at the amount paid in, which is announced by the candidate; the cost of retirement savings incentives (€1.8bn) is a benchmark. Parameter “endowment at birth”: arithmetic coefficient, number of births in France in 2025 (Insee, 643,905) × amount paid, i.e. €0.64bn per year for €1,000. The number of births has fallen every year since 2010: the cost follows. Newborns of French nationality are slightly fewer than births in France. The payment is counted as spending (a transfer to the child); if it remained the property of a public fund, it could be classified as a financial transaction, which weighs on the debt and not on the deficit. Tax-exempt family top-ups and the fund's future return are not costed.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

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