Consumption, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Taxes on fuel and energy: Fuel −40 cents: end of CEE, no VAT on the tax, margins capped
Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.
The lever. Excise duties on fuel, gas and electricity: level, freeze, targeted cut, energy voucher (chèque énergie). Direction rule: ↑ heavier taxes on fuel and energy.
« Baisser de 40 centimes le prix des carburants (suppression des certificats d’économies d’énergie (CEE) : 17 centimes ; suppression de la TVA sur la taxe (6 milliards d’euros de coût) : 13 centimes ; plafonnement des marges des raffineurs : 10 centimes). »1Translation by the editorsLower the price of fuel by 40 cents (abolition of energy saving certificates (CEE): 17 cents; abolition of VAT on the tax (€6 billion cost): 13 cents; capping of refiners’ margins: 10 cents).
Encoding
No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The programme does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
not costed
Three measures: end of energy saving certificates and capping of margins, two rules imposed on businesses, off-budget, with no official costing read of their effect on the general government balance; end of VAT on the tax, dealt with under the VAT lever.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. Excise duty on energy products (formerly TICPE) in 2026, excluding regional surcharges: 59.40 c€/l for diesel and 68.29 c€/l for SP95-E5, itself subject to VAT. Carbon component frozen since 2018. 2025 yield: €31.3bn of gross excise on fuels, of which €11.9bn transferred to local authorities and €1.2bn to the AFITF; €16.3bn net for the State after €1.7bn of refunds (Voies et moyens, PLF 2027); €30.5bn in national accounts according to Fipeco. Tax expenditures on energy: €6.3bn to €7.9bn in 2024.
Horizon. Full year; base trending downwards (electrification): the yield per cent in 2032 will be lower than today.
Limits. Coefficient calculated by the editors: €31.3bn of gross excise duty in 2025 (Voies et moyens, PLF 2027) divided by an average rate of about 63 c€/l (59.40 for diesel, 68.29 for SP95-E5), i.e. about 50 billion litres taxed and €0.50bn per cent excluding VAT, 0.47 net of refunds (€1.7bn). Excise duty is itself subject to VAT (20%): for a household, one cent of excise duty also carries 0.2 cent of VAT; the VAT paid by households on excise duty is real revenue (lost if excise duty falls), that paid by businesses is recoverable. Central value, €0.53bn per cent: 0.47 excluding VAT, plus 20% VAT on the share of excise duty paid by households, 63.5% of road excise duty in 2022 (€18.4bn out of €29.0bn; SDES, 2022 energy balance, long series N022MMR and N033MMR), i.e. 0.2 × 0.50 × 0.635 ≈ 0.06 (editors' calculation; until 18 October 2026, 0.58, with VAT counted on all litres). Upper bound, 0.60: VAT included on all litres, before refunds. Lower bound, 0.47: excluding VAT. This is not a published official figure: it ignores the rates specific to each product (heating oil, off-road diesel) and refunds by sector (hauliers, farmers). State excise duties on motor fuels fall in 2026 (prices of petroleum products) then rise again in 2027 according to the Voies et moyens. A cut of 10 c€/l is given by the linear parameter.
- Fipeco, Les taxes sur les carburants, 2026-07-06: « Hors majorations régionales, les taux de l'accise en 2026 sont de 59,40 centimes par litre pour le gazole et 68,29 centimes pour l'essence sans plomb SP95-E5 ... En comptabilité nationale, le produit de la TICPE s'est élevé à 30,5 Md€, soit 1,0 % du PIB, en 2025 »
- PLF 2026, Voies et moyens tome I, 2025-10: « La prévision des accises sur les énergies diminuerait de -2,8 Md€ pour atteindre 22,9 Md€ »
- SDES, Bilan énergétique de la France pour 2022, séries longues (tableur bilan_energetique_france_2022_series_longues_def.xlsx), séries N022MMR, N027MMR et N033MMR, 2024-05-23: « 2022 (M€) : N022MMR TICPE routier ménages continent 18 414,7 ; N027MMR TICPE routier entreprises continent 10 383,8 ; N030MMR TICPE routier Corse 187,4 ; N033MMR TICPE transport routier 28 985,9 »
- PLF 2027, Évaluation des voies et moyens, tome I (pages 34 et 35), 2026-10: « En 2025, les recettes des accises sur les carburants ont atteint 16,3 Md€ […] En Md€ Exécution 2025 Prévision 2026 Prévision 2027 Accise brute totale sur les carburants 31,3 30,2 31,0 Transfert aux collectivités territoriales -11,9 -11,8 -11,6 Transfert à l’AFITF -1,2 -1,5 -1,3 […] Remboursements et dégrèvements d’accise sur les carburants -1,7 -1,5 -1,5 Accise sur les carburants - nette État 16,3 15,1 16,3 »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
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