Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Consumption, Bruno Retailleau

Taxes on fuel and energy: Electricity taken out of energy savings certificates: −5% on the bill

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Excise duties on fuel, gas and electricity: level, freeze, targeted cut, energy voucher (chèque énergie). Direction rule: ↑ heavier taxes on fuel and energy.

« La sortie de l'électricité des certificats produit une baisse directe des factures de 5 % »1

Translation by the editorsTaking electricity out of the certificates produces a direct 5% reduction in bills

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

€0bn

per year, direction to be read in the quote. « À coût budgétaire nul. » [“At zero budgetary cost.”]

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

Energy saving certificates are an obligation imposed on energy suppliers, funded through prices and not by the budget: no official costing read of the effect of removing electricity on the general government balance.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Excise duty on energy products (formerly TICPE) in 2026, excluding regional surcharges: 59.40 c€/l for diesel and 68.29 c€/l for SP95-E5, itself subject to VAT. Carbon component frozen since 2018. 2025 yield: €31.3bn of gross excise on fuels, of which €11.9bn transferred to local authorities and €1.2bn to the AFITF; €16.3bn net for the State after €1.7bn of refunds (Voies et moyens, PLF 2027); €30.5bn in national accounts according to Fipeco. Tax expenditures on energy: €6.3bn to €7.9bn in 2024.

Horizon. Full year; base trending downwards (electrification): the yield per cent in 2032 will be lower than today.

Limits. Coefficient calculated by the editors: €31.3bn of gross excise duty in 2025 (Voies et moyens, PLF 2027) divided by an average rate of about 63 c€/l (59.40 for diesel, 68.29 for SP95-E5), i.e. about 50 billion litres taxed and €0.50bn per cent excluding VAT, 0.47 net of refunds (€1.7bn). Excise duty is itself subject to VAT (20%): for a household, one cent of excise duty also carries 0.2 cent of VAT; the VAT paid by households on excise duty is real revenue (lost if excise duty falls), that paid by businesses is recoverable. Central value, €0.53bn per cent: 0.47 excluding VAT, plus 20% VAT on the share of excise duty paid by households, 63.5% of road excise duty in 2022 (€18.4bn out of €29.0bn; SDES, 2022 energy balance, long series N022MMR and N033MMR), i.e. 0.2 × 0.50 × 0.635 ≈ 0.06 (editors' calculation; until 18 October 2026, 0.58, with VAT counted on all litres). Upper bound, 0.60: VAT included on all litres, before refunds. Lower bound, 0.47: excluding VAT. This is not a published official figure: it ignores the rates specific to each product (heating oil, off-road diesel) and refunds by sector (hauliers, farmers). State excise duties on motor fuels fall in 2026 (prices of petroleum products) then rise again in 2027 according to the Voies et moyens. A cut of 10 c€/l is given by the linear parameter.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. Projet Retailleau, mesure n°89 « Réduire les charges sur l'électricité et revoir le DPE ». Read the programme page.

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