Consumption, Éric Zemmour
Taxes on fuel and energy: Fuel excise cut by a third, end of energy savings certificates (CEE)
Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.
The lever. Excise duties on fuel, gas and electricity: level, freeze, targeted cut, energy voucher (chèque énergie). Direction rule: ↑ heavier taxes on fuel and energy.
« Nous devons absolument baisser d'un tiers la taxe qu'on appelle l'accise. Donc ça fait à peu près une réduction de 27 centimes. Puis nous rajoutons le certificat d'économie d'énergie, qui est assimilé par la Cour des comptes elle-même à une taxe et qui fait à peu près 15 centimes. Donc ça fait 27 centimes plus 15 centimes, ça fait 42. […] ces 12 milliards, on les compense par des baisses de dépenses. »1Translation by the editorsWe absolutely must cut by a third the tax called the excise duty. So that makes a reduction of about 27 centimes. Then we add the energy savings certificate, which the Cour des comptes itself treats as a tax and which is about 15 centimes. So that makes 27 centimes plus 15 centimes, that makes 42. […] these 12 billion, we offset them with spending cuts.
Words of Éric Zemmour, BFMTV, « Face à BFM » et débat avec Jean-François Copé (vidéo sur la chaîne YouTube du candidat, 4 min 58 s), 17 September 2026. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme.
No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 18 October 2026.
Encoding
| Parameter | Current law | Proposed | Effective date or horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excise duty on fuels (change) | 0 c€/l | -21 c€/l (assumption by the editors, see the costing) | Full year; base trending downwards (electrification): the yield per cent in 2032 will be lower than today |
Costing
Announced by the candidate
−€12bn
per year, cost to the public accounts. « ces 12 milliards, on les compense par des baisses de dépenses » [“these 12 billion, we offset them with spending cuts”] (BFMTV, 17 September 2026, amount taken from the journalist's question); « Je propose de baisser d'un tiers cette accise, ça fait à peu près 12 milliards » [“I propose cutting this excise duty by a third, that comes to about 12 billion”] (CNews and Europe 1, « La France en face », 19 May 2026)
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
−€11bn
per year for the public accounts, revenue cut, range −€13bn to −€9.9bn.
The calculation
- Excise duty on fuels (change): (-21 − 0) ÷ 1 = -21 times “1 cent per litre of excise duty on all products subject to the fuel excise (road fuels, heating oil…), central value including VAT on the excise paid by households”, each a gain of €0.53bn (0.47 to 0.6).
Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. « D'un tiers » [“By a third”]: a third of the average rate used in the cost schedule (63 c€/l), i.e. −21 c€/l excluding VAT; the « 27 centimes » [“27 centimes”] cited include VAT on the excise duty (petrol). The abolition of the energy savings certificates (« à peu près 15 centimes » [“about 15 centimes”] according to him), which are not public revenue, is not costed. The central coefficient counts VAT on the excise duty only for the share paid by households (63.5% of road fuel excise, SDES 2022): that paid by businesses is recoverable, that paid by households is a real revenue loss.
Coefficient calculated by the editors from Fipeco, Les taxes sur les carburants: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.
Figure announced by the candidate: no gap calculated: costing based on an assumption by the editors.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. Excise duty on energy products (formerly TICPE) in 2026, excluding regional surcharges: 59.40 c€/l for diesel and 68.29 c€/l for SP95-E5, itself subject to VAT. Carbon component frozen since 2018. 2025 yield: €31.3bn of gross excise on fuels, of which €11.9bn transferred to local authorities and €1.2bn to the AFITF; €16.3bn net for the State after €1.7bn of refunds (Voies et moyens, PLF 2027); €30.5bn in national accounts according to Fipeco. Tax expenditures on energy: €6.3bn to €7.9bn in 2024.
Horizon. Full year; base trending downwards (electrification): the yield per cent in 2032 will be lower than today.
Limits. Coefficient calculated by the editors: €31.3bn of gross excise duty in 2025 (Voies et moyens, PLF 2027) divided by an average rate of about 63 c€/l (59.40 for diesel, 68.29 for SP95-E5), i.e. about 50 billion litres taxed and €0.50bn per cent excluding VAT, 0.47 net of refunds (€1.7bn). Excise duty is itself subject to VAT (20%): for a household, one cent of excise duty also carries 0.2 cent of VAT; the VAT paid by households on excise duty is real revenue (lost if excise duty falls), that paid by businesses is recoverable. Central value, €0.53bn per cent: 0.47 excluding VAT, plus 20% VAT on the share of excise duty paid by households, 63.5% of road excise duty in 2022 (€18.4bn out of €29.0bn; SDES, 2022 energy balance, long series N022MMR and N033MMR), i.e. 0.2 × 0.50 × 0.635 ≈ 0.06 (editors' calculation; until 18 October 2026, 0.58, with VAT counted on all litres). Upper bound, 0.60: VAT included on all litres, before refunds. Lower bound, 0.47: excluding VAT. This is not a published official figure: it ignores the rates specific to each product (heating oil, off-road diesel) and refunds by sector (hauliers, farmers). State excise duties on motor fuels fall in 2026 (prices of petroleum products) then rise again in 2027 according to the Voies et moyens. A cut of 10 c€/l is given by the linear parameter.
- Fipeco, Les taxes sur les carburants, 2026-07-06: « Hors majorations régionales, les taux de l'accise en 2026 sont de 59,40 centimes par litre pour le gazole et 68,29 centimes pour l'essence sans plomb SP95-E5 ... En comptabilité nationale, le produit de la TICPE s'est élevé à 30,5 Md€, soit 1,0 % du PIB, en 2025 »
- PLF 2026, Voies et moyens tome I, 2025-10: « La prévision des accises sur les énergies diminuerait de -2,8 Md€ pour atteindre 22,9 Md€ »
- SDES, Bilan énergétique de la France pour 2022, séries longues (tableur bilan_energetique_france_2022_series_longues_def.xlsx), séries N022MMR, N027MMR et N033MMR, 2024-05-23: « 2022 (M€) : N022MMR TICPE routier ménages continent 18 414,7 ; N027MMR TICPE routier entreprises continent 10 383,8 ; N030MMR TICPE routier Corse 187,4 ; N033MMR TICPE transport routier 28 985,9 »
- PLF 2027, Évaluation des voies et moyens, tome I (pages 34 et 35), 2026-10: « En 2025, les recettes des accises sur les carburants ont atteint 16,3 Md€ […] En Md€ Exécution 2025 Prévision 2026 Prévision 2027 Accise brute totale sur les carburants 31,3 30,2 31,0 Transfert aux collectivités territoriales -11,9 -11,8 -11,6 Transfert à l’AFITF -1,2 -1,5 -1,3 […] Remboursements et dégrèvements d’accise sur les carburants -1,7 -1,5 -1,5 Accise sur les carburants - nette État 16,3 15,1 16,3 »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
- BFMTV, « Face à BFM » et débat avec Jean-François Copé (vidéo sur la chaîne YouTube du candidat, 4 min 58 s), 17 September 2026. Words of Éric Zemmour. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme. Read the source (BFMTV, « Face à BFM » et débat avec Jean-François Copé (vidéo sur la chaîne YouTube du candidat, 4 min 58 s)).
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