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Europe and defence, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Place in the European Union: Referendum on EU membership, exit if the people accept it

Direction of change: change of another kind, or uncertain direction, compared with current law.

The lever. Relationship with the European treaties and rules: deepening, renegotiation, primacy of national law, exit. Direction rule: ↑ deeper European integration.

« La France, si le peuple l’accepte par référendum, quittera l’Union européenne. […] Organiser un référendum sur l’appartenance de la France à l’Union européenne. »1

Translation by the editorsFrance, if the people accept it by referendum, will leave the European Union. […] Organise a referendum on France’s membership of the European Union.

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Levy on revenue for the European Union (gross French contribution)28.44 €bn14.22 €bn (assumption by the editors, see the costing)Full year, current €bn

Costing

Announced by the candidate

+€15bn

per year, gain for the public accounts. Économie page (10 Oct. 2026): « Sortir de l’UE et économiser ainsi les 15 milliards d’euros de notre solde contributeur. » [“Leave the EU and thereby save the €15 billion of our net contribution.”]

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

+€14bn

per year for the public accounts, saving.

The calculation

  • Levy on revenue for the European Union (gross French contribution): (14.22 − 28.44) ÷ -1 = 14.22 times “€1bn less in French contribution compared with the levy voted for 2026 (€28.44bn, Finance Act for 2026, art. 143)”, each a gain of €1bn (1 to 1).

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Reading adopted: the announcement of 11 October 2026 (Europe 1, « Le Grand Rendez-vous »), « dégager la moitié de la contribution à l'Union Européenne » [“free up half of the contribution to the European Union”] to finance the capital of €10,000 per newborn, read as the French contribution (levy on revenue) cut by half, the cut being assumed to be obtained, the same reading as for Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour: half of the levy voted for 2026 (€28.44bn, Finance Act for 2026), i.e. a gain of €14.22bn. The means (negotiation or unilateral decision) is not stated and is not assessed; EU returns assumed unchanged. Leaving the EU, subject to a referendum (quote in the position), is not costed: conditional commitment.

Figure announced by the candidate: no gap calculated: the announcement covers a different scope or a different year.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Constitution, art. 88-1 (participation in the EU); TEU and TFEU treaties; new European fiscal rules of 2024. Levy on revenue for the EU: €28.44bn in the finance act for 2026 (art. 143; €28.8bn in the initial bill), compared with €23.1bn in 2025. France's share of EU financing: 17.2% in 2024. Net accounting balance: -€7.9bn in 2024 and -€9.3bn in 2023, France being the 2nd largest net contributor. Returns: €16.4bn a year on average. Under the 2028-2034 financial framework proposed by the Commission, the average annual levy would rise from €26bn (current framework) to €38bn.

Horizon. Full year, current €bn. In 2032, the 2028-2034 financial framework brings the contribution to €38bn on average according to the Commission's proposal.

Limits. The contribution is set by the « ressources propres » (own resources) decision (unanimity and ratification) and by the multiannual financial framework: a unilateral reduction would breach the treaties. The “exit” option is a static balance calculated by the editors. Low: 2024 balance (7.9). Central: voted 2026 levy of 28.44 minus 16.4 of average returns, i.e. 12.04. High: 38 (average proposed for 2028-2034) minus 16.4, i.e. 21.6. It ignores the returns that would have to be funded nationally (PAC: France receives 18.5% of the agricultural policy), customs duties, access to the single market, the cost of debt and the French share of the European debt linked to the recovery plan (extra contribution of about €2.5bn per year from 2028 according to the Cour des comptes, for lack of new own resources). It is not a net gain. The levy voted for 2026 is €28.44bn (finance act for 2026, art. 143), not €28.8bn (initial bill). Freezing at the 2025 level brings in 28.44 − 23.10 = €5.34bn according to amendment no. 1291 (GDR group), which proposes it. The contribution-ue parameter (rule on public bases, 18 October 2026, the same for all): a reduction in the contribution is costed on the levy voted for 2026, €28.44bn, assuming the reduction is obtained, as for leaving the EU (static costing; the means, a renegotiation requiring unanimity, is not assessed). A targeted net contribution (levy minus returns) is converted into a levy by adding the average returns, €16.4bn (Senate): a net contribution of €5bn is equivalent to a levy of €21.4bn, i.e. a gain of €7.04bn (only €2.9bn if one starts from the 2024 net accounting balance, €7.9bn). A return to the pre-Covid level is read on the levy executed in 2019, €21.025bn, in 2019 euros not updated: a gain of €7.41bn. Compared with the proposed 2028-2034 framework (€38bn on average), the gains would be higher, but this framework has not been adopted: it is not part of the baseline.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

  1. Debout la France, Notre projet : Affaires européennes. Read the programme page.

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