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Immigration, David Lisnard

Right of asylum: Process asylum applications in consulates abroad

Direction of change: change of another kind, or uncertain direction, compared with current law.

The lever. Reception and examination of asylum applications: procedure, time limits, place where applications are lodged, removal of rejected applicants. Direction rule: ↑ broader access to asylum.

« Traiter les demandes d’asiles au sein de nos consulats à l’étranger »1

Translation by the editorsProcess asylum applications within our consulates abroad

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Change in the number of asylum applications registered per year (negative when it falls)0 applications-150,000 applications (assumption by the editors, see the costing)Full year, current €bn, based on 2026 appropriations (no projection to 2032 in the sources)

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

+€0.2bn

per year for the public accounts, saving, range +€0.2bn to +€1.4bn.

The calculation

  • Change in the number of asylum applications registered per year (negative when it falls): (-150,000 − 0) ÷ -10,000 = 15 times “10,000 fewer asylum applications per year (material support for applicants, average cost)”, each a gain of €0.09bn (0.02 to 0.09). Central value brought down to the smallest amount (€0.02bn per step).

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Reading adopted, the same as for Bruno Retailleau (asylum examined outside the borders) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (application admitted only at the border): applications are processed in consulates abroad and are no longer lodged on French territory; material support for applicants (allowance and accommodation) is no longer due in France for the roughly 150,000 annual applications (151,665 in 2025, minus 1,677 applications at the border, Ofpra), at the average cost of an application. Not costed: the cost of processing in consulates, unknown, and shifts to emergency accommodation and State medical aid, which make the gain overestimated. Compliance with international and European law not assessed.

Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, commission des finances, note de présentation PLF 2026, mission « Immigration, asile et intégration »: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.

Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated: shifts to ordinary emergency accommodation and State medical aid are not deducted; the central value is the lower bound of the cost per application (rule common to positions costed through the gain per asylum application).

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Right of asylum guaranteed by the CESEDA and EU law. The European Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted on 14 May 2024, applies from June 2026. In 2026, the « Immigration, asile et intégration » mission receives €2.16bn in payment appropriations, 64% of it for asylum (asylum seeker allowance and accommodation). Asylum seeker allowance: €313.4m in 2026, of which €241.4m for applicants. Accommodation for asylum seekers: 111,855 places budgeted in 2026. Asylum applications: 151,665 in 2025 (AFP), 145,270 lodged with the Ofpra (French refugee protection office) (2025 activity report), of which 8,897 in Guyane and 1,593 in Mayotte, and 1,677 requests for entry on asylum grounds made at the border. Cour nationale du droit d'asile (National Court of Asylum): 53,086 decisions in 2025, of which 10,413 by a single judge after a hearing (1,469 single-judge hearings), since the Act of 26 January 2024.

Horizon. Full year, current €bn, based on 2026 appropriations (no projection to 2032 in the sources)

Limits. The unit cost is calculated from the sources: 64% × €2.16bn ≈ €1.38bn, divided by 151,665 applications, i.e. about €9,100 per application and €0.09bn for 10,000 applications. Bottom of the range: the asylum seekers' allowance alone (€241.4m / 151,665 × 10,000 ≈ €0.016bn), if the accommodation stock remains fixed in the short term. No source gives a top of the range, hence top = central. Not counted: costs of OFPRA and CNDA, of AME for rejected applicants, of mainstream emergency accommodation. The mission budget covers only part of the cost of immigration: €7.82bn across 12 missions, and €1.8bn per year for the fight against irregular immigration alone according to the Cour des comptes (2024). The “abolition of the allowance” option is legally contrary to EU law, hence a purely indicative costing. Applications registered on French territory, for a measure that only accepts applications made at the border or outside France: 151,665 − 1,677 ≈ 150,000 (editors' calculation). Return to collegial panels at the CNDA (editors' calculation, not retained as an option: under €0.01bn, it would show as a zero cost): 1,469 single-judge hearings in 2025 (CNDA) × two assessors × €145 to €195 per sitting (Order of 12 December 2018, art. 3; amounts possibly amended by the Order of 31 December 2024, not read), i.e. €0.4m to €0.6m per year; the presiding judge of the panel is already the single judge; travel and premises not counted.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for David Lisnard

  1. Programme Nouvelle Énergie, Immigration. Read the programme page.

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