Immigration, Marine Le Pen
Right of asylum: Right of asylum « durci » [“tightened”] by constitutional referendum (RN president)
Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.
The lever. Reception and examination of asylum applications: procedure, time limits, place where applications are lodged, removal of rejected applicants. Direction rule: ↑ broader access to asylum.
Words reported by Sud Radio / AFP, « En révisant la Constitution par référendum, le RN au pouvoir ouvrirait une crise majeure »: "Dès notre victoire, nous soumettrons aux Français un référendum constitutionnel sur l'immigration", a confirmé jeudi le président du RN Jordan Bardella. Objectif: la "fin du droit du sol et du regroupement familial", "la priorité nationale dans l'accès aux aides sociales", un "droit d'asile durci".1
Translation by the editors“As soon as we win, we will submit to the French a constitutional referendum on immigration,” RN president Jordan Bardella confirmed on Thursday. Objective: the “end of birthright citizenship and family reunification”, “national priority in access to social benefits”, a “tightened right of asylum”.
Words of Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, reported by Sud Radio / AFP, « En révisant la Constitution par référendum, le RN au pouvoir ouvrirait une crise majeure », 3 September 2026. Words of an associate of the candidate: they do not formally commit the candidate.
Link to the candidacy: He announces the referendum that Marine Le Pen would call once elected; she presents him as her future Prime Minister.
No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 18 October 2026.
Encoding
No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The cited source does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
not costed
Right of asylum « durci » [“tightened”] with no specific measure: nothing to cost. The constitutional bill « Citoyenneté-Identité-Immigration » tabled by Marine Le Pen on 25 January 2024 (National Assembly, no. 2120) would allow the law to require that asylum applications be « déposées exclusivement en dehors du territoire national » [“lodged exclusively outside national territory”] and that applicants be hosted, during the examination, in States bound to France by an agreement; it does not say how many fewer applications are expected.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. Right of asylum guaranteed by the CESEDA and EU law. The European Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted on 14 May 2024, applies from June 2026. In 2026, the « Immigration, asile et intégration » mission receives €2.16bn in payment appropriations, 64% of it for asylum (asylum seeker allowance and accommodation). Asylum seeker allowance: €313.4m in 2026, of which €241.4m for applicants. Accommodation for asylum seekers: 111,855 places budgeted in 2026. Asylum applications: 151,665 in 2025 (AFP), 145,270 lodged with the Ofpra (French refugee protection office) (2025 activity report), of which 8,897 in Guyane and 1,593 in Mayotte, and 1,677 requests for entry on asylum grounds made at the border. Cour nationale du droit d'asile (National Court of Asylum): 53,086 decisions in 2025, of which 10,413 by a single judge after a hearing (1,469 single-judge hearings), since the Act of 26 January 2024.
Horizon. Full year, current €bn, based on 2026 appropriations (no projection to 2032 in the sources)
Limits. The unit cost is calculated from the sources: 64% × €2.16bn ≈ €1.38bn, divided by 151,665 applications, i.e. about €9,100 per application and €0.09bn for 10,000 applications. Bottom of the range: the asylum seekers' allowance alone (€241.4m / 151,665 × 10,000 ≈ €0.016bn), if the accommodation stock remains fixed in the short term. No source gives a top of the range, hence top = central. Not counted: costs of OFPRA and CNDA, of AME for rejected applicants, of mainstream emergency accommodation. The mission budget covers only part of the cost of immigration: €7.82bn across 12 missions, and €1.8bn per year for the fight against irregular immigration alone according to the Cour des comptes (2024). The “abolition of the allowance” option is legally contrary to EU law, hence a purely indicative costing. Applications registered on French territory, for a measure that only accepts applications made at the border or outside France: 151,665 − 1,677 ≈ 150,000 (editors' calculation). Return to collegial panels at the CNDA (editors' calculation, not retained as an option: under €0.01bn, it would show as a zero cost): 1,469 single-judge hearings in 2025 (CNDA) × two assessors × €145 to €195 per sitting (Order of 12 December 2018, art. 3; amounts possibly amended by the Order of 31 December 2024, not read), i.e. €0.4m to €0.6m per year; the presiding judge of the panel is already the single judge; travel and premises not counted.
- Sénat, commission des finances, note de présentation PLF 2026, mission « Immigration, asile et intégration », 2025-11: « « près de deux tiers des crédits de la mission financent encore cette année la mise en œuvre du droit d'asile, portées en particulier par l'allocation pour demandeurs d'asile (ADA) et l'hébergement (64 % en 2026 contre 69 % en 2025) » ; « le budget total consacré à l'ADA, hors frais de gestion, à 313,4 millions d'euros (241,4 millions d'euros pour l'ADA versée aux demandeurs d'asile et 71,9 millions d'euros pour l'ADA versée aux bénéficiaires de la protection temporaire) » ; « Pour 2026, 111 855 places » ; le pacte « doit s'appliquer à partir de juin 2026 » ; « Le coût estimé de la politique française de l'immigration et de l'intégration est de 7,82 milliards d'euros en 2026 » »
- Ofpra, Rapport d'activité 2025 (juillet 2026), annexe 9 et chapitre sur la frontière, 2026-07: « 145 270 demandes enregistrées ; annexe 9 (premières demandes / réexamens / réouvertures / total) : Guyane 3 664 / 5 232 / 1 / 8 897 ; Mayotte 1 492 / 91 / 10 / 1 593 ; « En 2025, les saisines de l'Ofpra consécutives aux demandes d'entrée sur le territoire au titre de l'asile formulées par des personnes aux frontières ont concerné 1 677 demandes » »
- CNDA, Rapport d'activité 2025, 2026: « La Cour a rendu 53 086 décisions, contre 61 593 en 2024. […] 27,3 % des décisions sont prises à l'issue d'une audience par un juge statuant seul. […] 5 340 audiences ont été tenues dont 3 871 audiences collégiales et 1 469 audiences à juge unique. »
- Arrêté du 12 décembre 2018 fixant les indemnités des membres de la Cour nationale du droit d'asile (copie publiée par le Conseil d'État), art. 3 et 4, 2018-12-12: « fixé à 145 euros. Ce montant est porté à 195 euros lorsque la séance comporte une pause méridienne. »
- AFP via Le Petit Journal, chiffres 2025 du ministère de l'Intérieur, 2026-01-27: « Demandes d'asile en 2025 : 151 665, en baisse de 3,7 % »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
- Sud Radio / AFP, « En révisant la Constitution par référendum, le RN au pouvoir ouvrirait une crise majeure », 3 September 2026. Words of Jordan Bardella reported by this outlet: the text quoted is the article’s, not their exact words. Words of an associate of the candidate: they do not formally commit the candidate. Read the source (Sud Radio / AFP, « En révisant la Constitution par référendum, le RN au pouvoir ouvrirait une crise majeure »).
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