Immigration, Édouard Philippe
Right of asylum: Safe countries voted yearly, end of asylum for life; suspended in Mayotte and Guyane
Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.
The lever. Reception and examination of asylum applications: procedure, time limits, place where applications are lodged, removal of rejected applicants. Direction rule: ↑ broader access to asylum.
« Mettre fin au dévoiement de l'asile en faisant voter chaque année par le Parlement une liste de pays sûrs et en mettant fin à l’asile à vie. […] Suspendre, pour la durée du quinquennat, l'enregistrement des demandes d'asile dans les départements d'outre-mer en état de saturation migratoire, à Mayotte et en Guyane. »1Translation by the editorsEnd the misuse of asylum by having Parliament vote each year on a list of safe countries and by ending asylum for life. […] Suspend, for the duration of the five-year term, the registration of asylum applications in the overseas departments in a state of migratory saturation, in Mayotte and in Guyane.
Words of Édouard Philippe, Site de campagne « Avec Édouard 2027 », priorité « Pour une France plus sûre » (page non datée, consultée le 14 octobre 2026), 14 October 2026. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme.
No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 18 October 2026.
Encoding
| Parameter | Current law | Proposed | Effective date or horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change in the number of asylum applications registered per year (negative when it falls) | 0 applications | -10,490 applications (assumption by the editors, see the costing) | Full year, current €bn, based on 2026 appropriations (no projection to 2032 in the sources) |
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The cited source does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
+€0.02bn
per year for the public accounts, saving, range +€0.02bn to +€0.09bn.
The calculation
- Change in the number of asylum applications registered per year (negative when it falls): (-10,490 − 0) ÷ -10,000 = 1.05 times “10,000 fewer asylum applications per year (material support for applicants, average cost)”, each a gain of €0.09bn (0.02 to 0.09). Central value brought down to the smallest amount (€0.02bn per step).
Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Only the suspension of the registration of applications in Mayotte and Guyane is costed: 10,490 applications in 2025 (Guyane 8,897, Mayotte 1,593, Ofpra), at the national average cost of an application, measured in mainland France (material support is lower overseas: the gain is probably overestimated). The annual list of safe countries and the end of « asile à vie » [“asylum for life”] have no costed effect. The knock-on effects on emergency accommodation and state medical aid are not counted: the gain is overestimated. Compliance with international and European law not assessed.
Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, commission des finances, note de présentation PLF 2026, mission « Immigration, asile et intégration »: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.
Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated: shifts to ordinary emergency accommodation and State medical aid are not deducted; the central value is the lower bound of the cost per application (rule common to positions costed through the gain per asylum application).
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. Right of asylum guaranteed by the CESEDA and EU law. The European Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted on 14 May 2024, applies from June 2026. In 2026, the « Immigration, asile et intégration » mission receives €2.16bn in payment appropriations, 64% of it for asylum (asylum seeker allowance and accommodation). Asylum seeker allowance: €313.4m in 2026, of which €241.4m for applicants. Accommodation for asylum seekers: 111,855 places budgeted in 2026. Asylum applications: 151,665 in 2025 (AFP), 145,270 lodged with the Ofpra (French refugee protection office) (2025 activity report), of which 8,897 in Guyane and 1,593 in Mayotte, and 1,677 requests for entry on asylum grounds made at the border. Cour nationale du droit d'asile (National Court of Asylum): 53,086 decisions in 2025, of which 10,413 by a single judge after a hearing (1,469 single-judge hearings), since the Act of 26 January 2024.
Horizon. Full year, current €bn, based on 2026 appropriations (no projection to 2032 in the sources)
Limits. The unit cost is calculated from the sources: 64% × €2.16bn ≈ €1.38bn, divided by 151,665 applications, i.e. about €9,100 per application and €0.09bn for 10,000 applications. Bottom of the range: the asylum seekers' allowance alone (€241.4m / 151,665 × 10,000 ≈ €0.016bn), if the accommodation stock remains fixed in the short term. No source gives a top of the range, hence top = central. Not counted: costs of OFPRA and CNDA, of AME for rejected applicants, of mainstream emergency accommodation. The mission budget covers only part of the cost of immigration: €7.82bn across 12 missions, and €1.8bn per year for the fight against irregular immigration alone according to the Cour des comptes (2024). The “abolition of the allowance” option is legally contrary to EU law, hence a purely indicative costing. Applications registered on French territory, for a measure that only accepts applications made at the border or outside France: 151,665 − 1,677 ≈ 150,000 (editors' calculation). Return to collegial panels at the CNDA (editors' calculation, not retained as an option: under €0.01bn, it would show as a zero cost): 1,469 single-judge hearings in 2025 (CNDA) × two assessors × €145 to €195 per sitting (Order of 12 December 2018, art. 3; amounts possibly amended by the Order of 31 December 2024, not read), i.e. €0.4m to €0.6m per year; the presiding judge of the panel is already the single judge; travel and premises not counted.
- Sénat, commission des finances, note de présentation PLF 2026, mission « Immigration, asile et intégration », 2025-11: « « près de deux tiers des crédits de la mission financent encore cette année la mise en œuvre du droit d'asile, portées en particulier par l'allocation pour demandeurs d'asile (ADA) et l'hébergement (64 % en 2026 contre 69 % en 2025) » ; « le budget total consacré à l'ADA, hors frais de gestion, à 313,4 millions d'euros (241,4 millions d'euros pour l'ADA versée aux demandeurs d'asile et 71,9 millions d'euros pour l'ADA versée aux bénéficiaires de la protection temporaire) » ; « Pour 2026, 111 855 places » ; le pacte « doit s'appliquer à partir de juin 2026 » ; « Le coût estimé de la politique française de l'immigration et de l'intégration est de 7,82 milliards d'euros en 2026 » »
- Ofpra, Rapport d'activité 2025 (juillet 2026), annexe 9 et chapitre sur la frontière, 2026-07: « 145 270 demandes enregistrées ; annexe 9 (premières demandes / réexamens / réouvertures / total) : Guyane 3 664 / 5 232 / 1 / 8 897 ; Mayotte 1 492 / 91 / 10 / 1 593 ; « En 2025, les saisines de l'Ofpra consécutives aux demandes d'entrée sur le territoire au titre de l'asile formulées par des personnes aux frontières ont concerné 1 677 demandes » »
- CNDA, Rapport d'activité 2025, 2026: « La Cour a rendu 53 086 décisions, contre 61 593 en 2024. […] 27,3 % des décisions sont prises à l'issue d'une audience par un juge statuant seul. […] 5 340 audiences ont été tenues dont 3 871 audiences collégiales et 1 469 audiences à juge unique. »
- Arrêté du 12 décembre 2018 fixant les indemnités des membres de la Cour nationale du droit d'asile (copie publiée par le Conseil d'État), art. 3 et 4, 2018-12-12: « fixé à 145 euros. Ce montant est porté à 195 euros lorsque la séance comporte une pause méridienne. »
- AFP via Le Petit Journal, chiffres 2025 du ministère de l'Intérieur, 2026-01-27: « Demandes d'asile en 2025 : 151 665, en baisse de 3,7 % »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
- Site de campagne « Avec Édouard 2027 », priorité « Pour une France plus sûre » (page non datée, consultée le 14 octobre 2026), 14 October 2026. Words of Édouard Philippe. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme. Read the source (Site de campagne « Avec Édouard 2027 », priorité « Pour une France plus sûre » (page non datée, consultée le 14 octobre 2026)).
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