Déchiffrer 2027

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Age and contribution period, Bruno Retailleau

Long careers: Started early: full rate from 63, end of early departures before 63

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Early retirement for people who started work young: career-start ages taken into account, retirement ages, quarters required. Direction rule: ↑ more numerous or earlier early retirements.

« Celui qui a commencé tôt et réunit sa carrière complète avant 63 ans, soit 43 années cotisées, gagnera environ 14 % de salaire net en plus s'il continue de travailler. Son salaire ne paiera plus de cotisations retraite ni chômage, ce qui allège aussi le coût de son travail pour l'employeur. Sa carrière complète sera reconnue, puisque le taux plein lui sera garanti dès 63 ans, par dérogation au barème. »1

Translation by the editorsSomeone who started early and completes a full career before 63, i.e. 43 years of contributions, will earn around 14% more net salary if they continue working. Their salary will no longer bear pension or unemployment contributions, which also reduces the cost of their work for the employer. Their full career will be recognised, since the full rate will be guaranteed to them from 63, by derogation from the scale.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

Early retirement for long careers (from 58 today) disappears before 63, except for disability, invalidity and incapacity (press fact sheet no. 6); in return, full rate guaranteed from 63 after 43 years of contributions, and salary exempted from pension and unemployment contributions until then. The cost schedule only costs a widening of the scheme (2023), not its abolition; the candidate counts long careers in the €12bn of his « Mesures d'âge (63/65 ans, carrières longues) » [“Age measures (63/65, long careers)”] (fact sheet no. 6), and their budget is entrusted to the sectors for arduous work (measure no. 112).

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Early retirement for long careers (Art. L. 351-1-1 CSS (Social Security Code), widened in 2023): retirement possible from 58 at the earliest (thresholds at 58, 60, 62 and 63 depending on the age at which the career began), with the required period and 4 to 5 quarters contributed before 16, 18, 20 or 21. The LFSS 2026 adjusts only the 62 threshold and the required period for the 1964 to 1968 cohorts (COR 2026).

Horizon. Full year 2030 for the 2023 broadening (the only official costing available). The 2016 total is a size benchmark, not the cost of a measure.

Limits. No recent official costing (2024-2026) has been found for a standard broadening, for example retirement at 60 for all those who started before 20. The cost depends on the age thresholds and the required period. It interacts strongly with the legal retirement age: the Cour des comptes assumes the thresholds unchanged when the age falls and shifted when it rises, which explains the asymmetry of its costings. The figure of €6.1bn (2.3% of total pensions in 2016) predates 2023 and serves only to give an order of magnitude. A current value would require a DSS source or the old-age PQE of the PLFSS 2027. Total early-retirement pensions (€6.1bn in 2016) are a size benchmark, not the cost of a measure.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. avecretailleau.fr, mesure n° 110 « Rendre le travail toujours gagnant pour ceux qui ont commencé tôt ». Read the programme page.

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