Numbers and pay of civil servants: 400,000 retiring staff not replaced, for €25bn of savings

Current law. Public sector pay index point frozen at €4.9228 per month since 1 July 2023. 5.88 million public employees at the end of 2024. General government wage bill: €362.1bn in 2024 (21.7% of public expenditure), of which €244.6bn in gross wages and salaries and €117.6bn in employer contributions. The Cour des comptes (September 2026) recommends under-indexing the point and cutting local government staff by 140,000 by 2032.

Horizon. full year 2032, €bn/year

Limits. Pay index point. Cost of one point in a full year, whole civil service (Senate, opinion on the PLF 2026): 3.5% on 1 July 2022 = €7.6bn, i.e. €2.17bn per point; 1.5% on 1 July 2023 = €3.4bn, i.e. €2.27bn per point (2023 euros, latest observed cost). These costs are read as full employer costs, employer contributions included (editors' reading: the Senate does not detail their composition). “Net” convention of the cost schedule, the same for all public sector staff levers: at the centre, cost excluding employer contributions, a large part of which (CAS Pensions, CNRACL, social security funds) goes back to other general government bodies; at the upper bound, full employer cost. Central value: 2.27 × 244.6 / 362.1 = €1.53bn per point, share of gross wages and salaries (€244.6bn) in the 2024 public sector wage bill (€362.1bn, Cour des comptes); lower bound, same calculation on the 2022 cost: 2.17 × 244.6 / 362.1 = 1.47; upper bound, 2.27, full employer cost for 2023 (editors' calculations). If the Senate figures did not include employer contributions, the central value would underestimate the cost by about a third, a gap covered by the upper bound. According to the Cour des comptes (note of September 2026, chart no. 11 and table no. 4), full indexation of the point on 1.75% inflation per year from 2026 to 2032 would cost €26.6bn in 2032, i.e. €2.1bn to €2.4bn per point of cumulative increase depending on whether seven or six upratings are counted (editors' calculation): a cost of the same order as the Senate's, cited, not counted. The same note costs under-indexation: 25% → €6.7bn, 50% → 13.3, 75% → 20.0, 100% → €26.6bn of savings in 2032. The CGT puts forward a net cost of €1.2bn to €1.4bn after the return through contributions and tax: this costing is not static in the sense of the method. The point also raises teachers' pay, and an increase in the SMIC raises the lowest salaries: overlaps declared. Headcount: “net” convention of the cost schedule, central value at the average gross salary excluding employer contributions, which go back to other general government bodies (€244.6bn of gross wages and salaries for 5.88 million employees, i.e. about €41,600 per employee and €0.42bn for 10,000); upper bound at full employer cost (€362.1bn, about €61,600 per employee, €0.62bn); lower bound, €0.28bn for 10,000 local government employees according to the Cour (€3.9bn / 140,000). Non-replacement of departures: the Cour des comptes (same note, table no. 3) costs the non-replacement of 10% to 50% of departures at €3.6bn to €18.2bn of savings in 2032, covering all public employees, without publishing the number of departures in that scope (only those of the State civil service are published: 408,000 from 2026 to 2032, table no. 1): no cost per unreplaced post can properly be derived from it, and positions that rely on unreplaced departures remain costed at the average cost of an employee (check of 18 October 2026). For a local government scope, the lower bound (€0.28bn for 10,000 employees) is the Cour's coefficient. An overall headcount target may overlap the job creations costed on the sector levers (teachers, police and gendarmerie, justice): overlaps declared, with a zero common base by default, as no source says that an overall headcount target is counted net of these creations. Indexation of the point to inflation (option, rule on public bases of 18 October 2026): common editors' assumption for all indexation rules (pensions, pay index point, grants), inflation of 1.75% per year at the centre (Cour des comptes assumption, note of September 2026), 1.5 to 2.0% for the range; first effect of the term on 1 January 2028, cost in 2032 = cumulative gap of five upratings (2028 to 2032) with the current rule, a frozen point (no uprating since 1 July 2023). Cumulative increase: 1.0175^5 − 1 = 9.06% (1.015^5 − 1 = 7.73%; 1.02^5 − 1 = 10.41%), multiplied by the cost of one point (€1.53bn at the centre, 1.47 at the lower bound, 2.27 at the upper bound): €13.86bn (11.36 to 23.63; editors' calculations, 2023 euros for the cost of the point, as for the parameter). Reading key: one point of indexation gap for one year is worth the cost of one point, €1.53bn. Benchmark, not counted: the Cour des comptes costs full indexation on 1.75% from 2026 to 2032 (six or seven upratings) at €26.6bn in 2032. 10% increase for categories B and C (option): in 2024, the civil service has 39% category A staff, 23% category B and 38% category C, all statuses (DGAFP, 2026 annual report, p. 25); category B civil servants (16% of staff) earn on average €2,657 net per month, category C ones (26%) €2,145, against an average of €2,742 (p. 100). Share of categories B and C in total pay: civil servants only, (16 × 2,657 + 26 × 2,145) / (100 × 2,742) = 35.8% (lower bound); all statuses, attributing to category B and C contract staff the average salary of civil servants in their category, (23 × 2,657 + 38 × 2,145) / (100 × 2,742) = 52.0% (centre; contract staff earn €2,206 on average, slightly less: a slight overestimate). Cost: 10% × share × €244.6bn of gross wages and salaries (net convention, Cour des comptes 2024), i.e. €8.77bn and €12.72bn; upper bound, 10% × 52.0% × €362.1bn of full employer cost, €18.83bn (editors' calculations). Limitations: the headcount shares include military personnel, the salaries do not; the salary scope is in full-time equivalents. Teachers, almost all in category A, are costed under their own lever. An increase in the SMIC also raises the lowest category C salaries: overlap not estimated.

• Sénat, « L'essentiel » sur le PLF 2026, programme « Fonction publique » de la mission « Transformation et fonctions publiques » (page 2), 2025-11-25: « Face à la crise inflationniste née du conflit en Ukraine, le Gouvernement a mis en œuvre, au 1er juillet 2022, une première revalorisation de 3,5 % du point d’indice[6], dont le coût est évalué à 7,6 milliards d’euros en année pleine pour l’ensemble de la fonction publique, puis une deuxième revalorisation de 1,5 % à compter du 1er juillet 2023, pour un coût de 3,4 milliards d’euros en année pleine. »
• Cour des comptes, note structurelle « La masse salariale », 21 septembre 2026 (pages 7, 28 et 32 du PDF), 2026-09-21: « la masse salariale brute des administrations publiques, soit 362,1 Md€ ou 21,7 % des dépenses publiques totales en 2024, a progressé de 89,5 Md€ depuis 2012. […] Stabiliser puis rapprocher progressivement d’ici 2032 les effectifs des collectivités territoriales le plus possible de leur niveau de 2014 (soit une diminution de 140 000 agents), notamment au sein du « bloc communal » […] permettrait la réalisation d’une économie maximale de 3,9 Md€. […] Tableau n° 4 : impact budgétaire en 2032 de plusieurs scénarii d’indexation de la valeur du point d’indice / Taux de sous-indexation Économie en 2032 / 25 % 6,7 Md€ / 50 % 13,3 Md€ / 75 % 20,0 Md€ / 100 % 26,6 Md€ »
• Cour des comptes, note structurelle « La masse salariale », 21 septembre 2026 (pages 7, 17 et 30 du PDF), 2026-09-21: « Au 31 décembre 2024, la fonction publique employait 5,88 millions d’agents […] La masse salariale des administrations publiques (APU) s’est élevée en 2024 à 362,1 Md€ (soit 244,6 Md€ de salaires et traitements bruts et 117,6 Md€ de cotisations employeurs). […] Graphique n° 11 : économies induites selon le taux d’indexation sur l’inflation (avec une valeur prévisionnelle annuelle de 1,75 %) de la valeur du point d’indice entre 2026 et 2032 (trois versants de la fonction publique) »
• DGAFP, Rapport annuel sur l'état de la fonction publique, édition 2026, « Faits et chiffres » (pages 25 et 100), 2026-10: « « En 2024, la fonction publique est composée de 39% d'agents de catégorie A, de 23% d'agents de catégorie B et de 38% d'agents de catégorie C » ; « Les fonctionnaires de catégorie C constituent 26% de l'ensemble des agents et perçoivent un salaire net moyen mensuel de 2145 euros. Celui des fonctionnaires de catégorie B (16% des agents) vaut 2657 euros. Enfin, le salaire net moyen des fonctionnaires de catégorie A (30% des agents) s'élève à 3460 euros par mois. […] Le salaire net mensuel moyen des contractuels est inférieur à celui des fonctionnaires, et atteint 2206 euros. » ; « Le salaire net moyen dans la fonction publique est de 2742 euros » »