Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Business taxation, Bruno Retailleau

Production taxes: C3S and CVAE abolished, industrial CFE exempted, forfait social overhauled

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Taxes paid by businesses irrespective of their profits (CVAE, cotisation foncière, C3S): reduction, abolition or maintenance. Direction rule: ↑ heavier production taxes.

« Y ajouter près de 15 milliards sur la fiscalité de production, concentrés sur les impôts les plus pénalisants pour l'industrie : suppression intégrale de la C3S (5,3 milliards), suppression définitive de la CVAE (4,3 milliards), refonte du forfait social (2,8 milliards), exonération de la part industrielle de la CFE (1,9 milliard). »1

Translation by the editorsAdd to that nearly 15 billion on production taxes, concentrated on the taxes most penalising for industry: complete abolition of the C3S (5.3 billion), definitive abolition of the CVAE (4.3 billion), overhaul of the forfait social (2.8 billion), exemption of the industrial share of the CFE (1.9 billion).

Encoding

Position linked to options of the cost schedule, with no parameter to set: see the costing.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

−€15bn

per year, cost to the public accounts. « près de 15 milliards » [“nearly 15 billion”] on production taxes, including the overhaul of the forfait social (€2.8bn); with more than €25bn of reductions in labour costs, the « handicap fiscal » [“tax handicap”] falls by €40bn: « Ce choc est financé par la réforme de notre modèle social et par le retour du travail » [“This shock is funded by the reform of our social model and by the return of work”].

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

−€5.2bn

per year for the public accounts, revenue cut.

The calculation

  • Abolition of the C3S (company social solidarity contribution): Option costed by the source: a cost of €5.2bn per year.
  • Abolition of the CVAE (business value-added contribution) (already scheduled for 2030: zero cost in 2032 compared with current policies): Option costed by the source: a cost of €0bn per year.

Partial costing. The exemption of the industrial share of the CFE (business property contribution) (€1.9bn according to the candidate) is not in the cost schedule; the overhaul of the forfait social (€2.8bn according to him: incentive schemes, the above-statutory share of profit-sharing and individual retirement savings exempted), counted in his €15bn, falls under value sharing and is not costed. The abolition of the CVAE is already scheduled for 2030: zero cost in 2032.

Figure announced by the candidate: no gap calculated: the announcement covers a different scope or a different year.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Taxes on production: €132.8bn in 2025. Including CVAE: €4,024m of State revenue in 2025, €4,106m forecast for 2026 and €4,110m in 2027; its abolition, planned for 2027, was postponed to 2030 by the Finance Act for 2025 (Voies et moyens, PLF 2027; €3.7bn paid by businesses in 2025 according to Fipeco). The Finance Act for 2026 contains no article on the CVAE. C3S: €5.2bn (2024). CFE: €7.7bn. Property taxes paid by businesses are included in the €43.1bn of TFPB.

Horizon. Full year; cost to the State, which compensates local authorities with a fraction of VAT.

Limits. Costs = current revenue (static). The abolition of the CVAE (value-added contribution of businesses) in 2030 is confirmed by the Voies et moyens of the PLF 2027 (October 2026); the text of the code général des impôts (General Tax Code) in force could not be consulted on Légifrance (automated access refused), and the adopted text of the finance act for 2026 does not change this timetable. Compared with current policies, the cost in 2032 of an abolition is therefore zero, and maintaining it is a gain: €4.02bn (2025, lower bound) to €4.11bn (2027, central value and upper bound). Cut announced as an amount without a list of the taxes targeted: a pure amount with no named instrument, not costed, cited next to the total (decision 1 of 18 October 2026, the same for all candidates); the reduction in aid announced in return is treated in the same way (“Public aid to businesses” lever). The choice of taxes does not change the static cost; an amount greater than the revenue of a named tax cannot come from that tax alone (CVAE €4.1bn, C3S 5.2, CFE 7.7; €132.8bn for all production taxes in 2025).

  • Fipeco, La CVAE, 2026-07-07: « La loi de finances initiale pour 2025 a majoré le taux de la CVAE applicable en 2026 et 2027 et reporté sa suppression en 2030 ... En 2025, la CVAE prélevée sur les entreprises s'est élevée à 3,7 Md€ ... Le produit de l'ensemble des impôts sur la production s'est élevé à 132,8 Md€ en 2025 »
  • Fipeco, Les impôts sur la production, 2025-11-12: « contribution sociale de solidarité des sociétés, pour 5,2 Md€ ... la cotisation foncière des entreprises (7,7 Md€) »
  • OFCE, Le déficit public devrait diminuer en 2026 et 2027, 2026-04: « Les entreprises seraient plus mises à contribution en 2026 (+7,4 milliards d’euros, 0,2 point de PIB), en raison de l’annulation de la suppression progressive de la CVAE (1,3 milliard d’euros,) mais surtout de l’augmentation de la contribution exceptionnelle sur les grandes entreprises (7,3 milliards, 0,2 point de PIB). »
  • PLF 2027, Évaluation des voies et moyens, tome I (page 32), 2026-10: « Prévue pour être supprimée en 2027, la CVAE sera finalement maintenue jusqu’en 2030, conformément à la loi de finances pour 2025. RETOUR SUR 2025 En 2025, les recettes de CVAE pour l’État ont atteint 4 024 M€, en moins-value de -6 M€ par rapport à la prévision de la LFI pour 2025. […] En 2026, la prévision s’établit à 4 106 M€ […] La prévision s’établit à 4 110 M€ en 2027 »

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. Projet Retailleau, mesure n°34 « Réduire de 60 % le handicap fiscal de nos entreprises ». Read the programme page.

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