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Age and contribution period, Bruno Retailleau

Arduous work: Arduous work handled by sector: adjusted end of career from 63

Direction of change: change of another kind, or uncertain direction, compared with current law.

The lever. Taking arduous jobs into account to retire earlier: criteria used (carrying loads, night work…), occupational account, early retirements. Direction rule: ↑ arduous work better recognised (factors, early retirement).

« La pénibilité sera traitée branche par branche, métier par métier, par les partenaires sociaux, qui savent qui s'use vraiment au travail. Chaque branche financera les aménagements de fin de carrière à partir de 63 ans, qu'il s'agisse de temps partiel, d'adaptation des postes, de reconversion ou de rachats de décote pour partir plus tôt dans les métiers usants. Pour ceux qui ne peuvent plus travailler, rien ne change. »1

Translation by the editorsArduous work will be dealt with sector by sector, occupation by occupation, by the social partners, who know who is really worn down by work. Each sector will finance end-of-career arrangements from 63, whether part-time work, adaptation of jobs, retraining or buying back the pension reduction to leave earlier in arduous occupations. For those who can no longer work, nothing changes.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

End-of-career adjustments decided and funded by the sectors from 63, using « la totalité de l'enveloppe aujourd'hui consacrée aux carrières longues » [“the entire budget currently devoted to long careers”]: a redeployment with no amount of its own, which the cost schedule does not represent (its only option reinstates factors of the occupational prevention account, about which the measure says nothing).

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Occupational prevention account (C2P), 6 factors since the 2017 ordinances, which removed manual handling of loads, arduous postures, vibrations and chemical agents. The points allow retirement to be brought forward by up to 2 years, hence from 62 since the 2023 Act. For ergonomic factors, the 2023 Act created a fund for investment in the prevention of occupational wear and tear (FIPU), financed by the occupational injuries and diseases branch (AT-MP).

Horizon. 2030 horizon, €bn per year. No recent costing exists for 2032.

Limits. Low confidence: the sources are 9 to 12 years old. The impact assessment of the 2014 law gave €2bn in 2030 (€2.5bn in 2040) for the entire 10-factor account (18.2% of workers exposed): as an upper bound for only the 4 factors removed in 2017, it overstates. Rexecode gave €1.7bn for a doubling of beneficiaries (figure read in the Institut Montaigne page, the Rexecode study has not been found). The lower bound, about €0.3bn in 2050 (2017 euros), is the costing cited by Montaigne for a broadening of the scope. The cost depends mainly on the exposure thresholds and the use of the points: early retirement, training or part-time work. The share funded by the AT-MP (occupational accidents and diseases) branch is not pension spending. No figure read gives the current amount of the C2P or the FIPU.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. avecretailleau.fr, mesure n° 112 « Traiter la pénibilité métier par métier ». Read the programme page.

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