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Industry and investment, Bruno Retailleau

Industrial aid and reshoring: France Production fund of €600m a year

Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.

The lever. Support for industry in France: aid, public procurement, trade protection, conditions attached to aid. Direction rule: ↑ more public aid to industry.

« Créer un Fonds France Production, intégralement financé, doté de 600 millions d'euros par an, exclusivement dédié à la modernisation de l'outil industriel, piloté par les régions et cofinancé par l'État et les fonds européens. »1

Translation by the editorsCreate a Fonds France Production, fully funded, endowed with 600 million euros a year, exclusively dedicated to modernising industrial facilities, run by the regions and co-financed by the State and European funds.

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Additional public aid to industry0 €bn/year0.4 €bn/year (assumption by the editors, see the costing)In full year 2032, compared with current policies under which France 2030 has expired

Costing

Announced by the candidate

−€0.6bn

per year, new spending. €600m a year: €200m from the State, €200m from the regions, €200m from European funds (measure no. 44, section « Le financement »); plus an enhanced tax depreciation allowance (sur-amortissement) for productive equipment, with no amount.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

−€0.4bn

per year for the public accounts, new spending. Candidate’s amount, taken as is.

The calculation

  • Additional public aid to industry: (0.4 − 0) ÷ 1 = 0.4 times “+€1bn of public aid to industry per year (subsidies or tax expenditure)”, each a cost of €1bn (1 to 1).

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Candidate's amount, taken as is (rule on amounts taken over): the €400m a year from the State (€200m) and the regions (€200m), read as new appropriations (the text does not say whether they are redeployed): editors' assumption. The €200m from European funds is not French public spending: it is not counted. The enhanced tax depreciation allowance for productive equipment, with no amount, is not costed.

Figure announced by the candidate: candidate’s amount, taken as is.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. France 2030 plan: €54bn (including PIA 4). Payment appropriations proposed in the PLF 2026 for its two programmes amount to €5,128m. The end of roll-out was envisaged around 2027-2030. The green industries investment tax credit (C3IV) is extended for projects approved until 31 December 2028 (art. 39 of the LF 2026, act no. 2026-103; decree no. 2026-763). The rate was cut by 5 points according to two analyses, which has not been checked in the text.

Horizon. In full year 2032, compared with current policies under which France 2030 has expired.

Limits. The figure of €5.1bn corresponds to the payment appropriations (CP) proposed in the PLF 2026 and not voted (the Senate cut them by €1bn at first reading). The bounds of €4bn to €6bn are an order of magnitude chosen by the editors around this figure, not a source. The annual cost of the C3IV (green industry investment tax credit) is not in the sources read (« Voies et moyens » annex, volume II, of the PLF 2027, not consulted). A 2025 amendment puts forward about €3.7bn cumulatively up to 2030. A “conditionality of aid” costs nothing and can save money if it reduces the amounts. Compatibility with EU State aid law is not assessed.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. avecretailleau.fr, mesure n° 44 « Créer un Fonds France Production pour moderniser nos usines ». Read the programme page.

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