Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Immigration, Marine Tondelier

Labour immigration and residence permits: Regularise workers, students and parents of schoolchildren

Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.

The lever. Conditions for issuing residence permits, labour immigration, regularisations, quotas voted by Parliament. Direction rule: ↑ more open labour immigration.

« Régulariser les travailleur·ses, les étudiant·es et les parents d’enfants scolarisés sur la base de critères objectifs (durée de résidence, effectivité du lien familial, durée ou promesse d’activité professionnelle). Supprimer les Obligations de Quitter le Territoire Français (OQTF) automatiques ou inapplicables. »1

Translation by the editorsRegularise workers, students and parents of school-age children on the basis of objective criteria (length of residence, genuineness of the family tie, length or promise of professional activity). Abolish automatic or unenforceable Obligations de Quitter le Territoire Français (OQTF, orders to leave French territory).

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

lever that cannot be costed

Lever with no coefficient in the cost schedule: the position is compared, not costed.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Act no. 2024-42 of 26 January 2024: exceptional admission to residence for foreign nationals working in a shortage occupation (CESEDA, art. L. 435-4). It requires three years of residence and 12 months of work out of 24, and the scheme is open until 31 December 2026. In 2025, 384,230 first residence permits were issued (+11%), of which 51,190 for economic reasons (-13%), and 28,610 foreign nationals were regularised (-10%).

Horizon. Not applicable.

Limits. A static costing makes no sense: the budgetary effect runs through employment, contributions and benefits, that is, through dynamic effects. Statistics diverge: about 377,000 first permits according to the ministry's note, 384,230 according to AFP (scope with or without British nationals). Expiry date of 31 December 2026 read in the instruction of 5 February 2024: without an extension (not searched for), the « métiers en tension » (shortage occupations) scheme expires before 2027, which changes the reference law in 2032.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

  1. Pour une prospérité écologique, programme des Écologistes, p. 178. Open the document at this page.

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