Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Immigration, Éric Zemmour

Labour immigration and residence permits: Send back illegal immigrants and foreigners, even legally resident, unemployed for a year

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Conditions for issuing residence permits, labour immigration, regularisations, quotas voted by Parliament. Direction rule: ↑ more open labour immigration.

« Il faut également renvoyer, je le dis pour la bonne bouche, c'est une évidence, les clandestins. Il faut également renvoyer les chômeurs de longue durée et tous ceux qui vivent uniquement des aides sociales. […] un étranger ne doit pas peser sur les finances publiques. Un étranger doit apporter quelque chose au pays, sinon il est renvoyé. »1

Translation by the editorsWe must also send back, I say it for good measure, it is obvious, the illegal immigrants. We must also send back the long-term unemployed and all those who live solely on social benefits. […] a foreigner must not be a burden on public finances. A foreigner must bring something to the country, otherwise he is sent back.

Words of Éric Zemmour, BFMTV, « Face à BFM » et débat avec Jean-François Copé (vidéo sur la chaîne YouTube du candidat, 22 min 44 s), 17 September 2026. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme.

No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 18 October 2026.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The cited source does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

lever that cannot be costed

Lever with no coefficient in the cost schedule: the position is compared, not costed.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Act no. 2024-42 of 26 January 2024: exceptional admission to residence for foreign nationals working in a shortage occupation (CESEDA, art. L. 435-4). It requires three years of residence and 12 months of work out of 24, and the scheme is open until 31 December 2026. In 2025, 384,230 first residence permits were issued (+11%), of which 51,190 for economic reasons (-13%), and 28,610 foreign nationals were regularised (-10%).

Horizon. Not applicable.

Limits. A static costing makes no sense: the budgetary effect runs through employment, contributions and benefits, that is, through dynamic effects. Statistics diverge: about 377,000 first permits according to the ministry's note, 384,230 according to AFP (scope with or without British nationals). Expiry date of 31 December 2026 read in the instruction of 5 February 2024: without an extension (not searched for), the « métiers en tension » (shortage occupations) scheme expires before 2027, which changes the reference law in 2032.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Éric Zemmour

  1. BFMTV, « Face à BFM » et débat avec Jean-François Copé (vidéo sur la chaîne YouTube du candidat, 22 min 44 s), 17 September 2026. Words of Éric Zemmour. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme. Read the source (BFMTV, « Face à BFM » et débat avec Jean-François Copé (vidéo sur la chaîne YouTube du candidat, 22 min 44 s)).

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