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Immigration, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Right of asylum: Asylum requested only at the borders, never granted on the territory

Direction of change: decrease, compared with current law.

The lever. Reception and examination of asylum applications: procedure, time limits, place where applications are lodged, removal of rejected applicants. Direction rule: ↑ broader access to asylum.

« Limiter le droit d’asile aux personnes le demandant directement aux frontières et refuser toute attribution sur le territoire national ou après plusieurs semaines de clandestinité. »1

Translation by the editorsLimit the right of asylum to people applying directly at the borders and refuse any grant on national territory or after several weeks of living clandestinely.

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Change in the number of asylum applications registered per year (negative when it falls)0 applications-150,000 applications (assumption by the editors, see the costing)Full year, current €bn, based on 2026 appropriations (no projection to 2032 in the sources)

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

+€0.2bn

per year for the public accounts, saving, range +€0.2bn to +€1.4bn.

The calculation

  • Change in the number of asylum applications registered per year (negative when it falls): (-150,000 − 0) ÷ -10,000 = 15 times “10,000 fewer asylum applications per year (material support for applicants, average cost)”, each a gain of €0.09bn (0.02 to 0.09). Central value brought down to the smallest amount (€0.02bn per step).

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Reading adopted: applications made on French territory are no longer registered; only applications at the border remain (1,677 in 2025, Ofpra). Fewer applications: 151,665 − 1,677 ≈ 150,000 a year, at the average cost of an application (material support for applicants). Static: people who stayed in France without being registered would shift to mainstream emergency accommodation and State medical aid (aide médicale de l'État), costs not counted: the gain is therefore overestimated. Compliance with international and European law not assessed.

Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, commission des finances, note de présentation PLF 2026, mission « Immigration, asile et intégration »: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.

Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated: shifts to ordinary emergency accommodation and State medical aid are not deducted; the central value is the lower bound of the cost per application (rule common to positions costed through the gain per asylum application).

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Right of asylum guaranteed by the CESEDA and EU law. The European Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted on 14 May 2024, applies from June 2026. In 2026, the « Immigration, asile et intégration » mission receives €2.16bn in payment appropriations, 64% of it for asylum (asylum seeker allowance and accommodation). Asylum seeker allowance: €313.4m in 2026, of which €241.4m for applicants. Accommodation for asylum seekers: 111,855 places budgeted in 2026. Asylum applications: 151,665 in 2025 (AFP), 145,270 lodged with the Ofpra (French refugee protection office) (2025 activity report), of which 8,897 in Guyane and 1,593 in Mayotte, and 1,677 requests for entry on asylum grounds made at the border. Cour nationale du droit d'asile (National Court of Asylum): 53,086 decisions in 2025, of which 10,413 by a single judge after a hearing (1,469 single-judge hearings), since the Act of 26 January 2024.

Horizon. Full year, current €bn, based on 2026 appropriations (no projection to 2032 in the sources)

Limits. The unit cost is calculated from the sources: 64% × €2.16bn ≈ €1.38bn, divided by 151,665 applications, i.e. about €9,100 per application and €0.09bn for 10,000 applications. Bottom of the range: the asylum seekers' allowance alone (€241.4m / 151,665 × 10,000 ≈ €0.016bn), if the accommodation stock remains fixed in the short term. No source gives a top of the range, hence top = central. Not counted: costs of OFPRA and CNDA, of AME for rejected applicants, of mainstream emergency accommodation. The mission budget covers only part of the cost of immigration: €7.82bn across 12 missions, and €1.8bn per year for the fight against irregular immigration alone according to the Cour des comptes (2024). The “abolition of the allowance” option is legally contrary to EU law, hence a purely indicative costing. Applications registered on French territory, for a measure that only accepts applications made at the border or outside France: 151,665 − 1,677 ≈ 150,000 (editors' calculation). Return to collegial panels at the CNDA (editors' calculation, not retained as an option: under €0.01bn, it would show as a zero cost): 1,469 single-judge hearings in 2025 (CNDA) × two assessors × €145 to €195 per sitting (Order of 12 December 2018, art. 3; amounts possibly amended by the Order of 31 December 2024, not read), i.e. €0.4m to €0.6m per year; the presiding judge of the panel is already the single judge; travel and premises not counted.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

  1. Debout la France, Notre projet : Immigration et assimilation (livret 2026-03-03). Read the programme page.

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