Europe and defence, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Defence budget: Defence budget raised to 2.5% of GDP
Direction of change: unchanged, compared with current law.
The lever. Targeted defence effort, as a percentage of gross domestic product, and timetable for reaching it. Direction rule: ↑ greater defence effort.
« Aussi, nous nous engageons à augmenter notre budget de défense pour atteindre le chiffre raisonnable de 2,5% du PIB, permettant de mettre en œuvre les 15 mesures suivantes. »1Translation by the editorsAccordingly, we undertake to increase our defence budget to reach the reasonable figure of 2.5% of GDP, making it possible to implement the following 15 measures.
Encoding
| Parameter | Current law | Programme | Effective date or horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defence effort in 2032 | 2.5 % of GDP | 2.5 % of GDP | Full year 2032, current €bn, static. 2032 GDP calculated by the editors: 2025 GDP (€2,991.1bn) × nominal growth of 2.5% / 3% / 3.5% per year over 7 years, i.… |
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The programme does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
€0bn
per year for the public accounts, zero cost.
The calculation
- Defence effort in 2032: Proposed value equal to current law (2.5 % of GDP): zero cost.
2.5% of GDP is already the floor of the military programming law for 2030: zero cost relative to this reference law.
Coefficient calculated by the editors from Légifrance, loi n° 2026-791 du 16 août 2026 actualisant la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. Act no. 2026-791 of 16 August 2026 updating the 2024-2030 military programming: national defence effort raised from 2% of GDP in 2025 « à 2,5 % au minimum en 2030 » [“to at least 2.5% in 2030”], with the aim of reaching 3.5% by 2035. Payment appropriations for the « Défense » mission: €57.1bn (2026), 63.3 (2027), 69.5 (2028), 72.6 (2029), 75.7 (2030), i.e. €435.7bn over 2024-2030 (+€36bn over 2026-2030). NATO Hague commitment (June 2025): 5% of GDP in 2035, of which at least 3.5% on defence in the strict sense, with a review in 2029.
Horizon. Full year 2032, current €bn, static. 2032 GDP calculated by the editors: 2025 GDP (€2,991.1bn) × nominal growth of 2.5% / 3% / 3.5% per year over 7 years, i.e. €3,556bn / €3,679bn / €3,806bn.
Limits. Cost schedule rule: the reference law is the latest level set by the military programming law in force, at least 2.5% of GDP in 2030, maintained in 2032 (current value of the parameter: 2.5). Beyond 2030, the law sets only a TARGET of 3.5% in 2035, without annual steps: it is not part of the baseline. A position at 3.5% or at 2% is costed by the linear parameter from this baseline; a position “at least 3%” is costed at the 3% floor. Nominal growth of 2.5% to 3.5% per year up to 2032 is a calculation assumption, not an official forecast. The « effort national de défense » (national defence effort) in the NATO sense includes military pensions and differs from the appropriations of the « Défense » mission (€75.7bn in 2030 excluding pensions). The trajectories adopted in the National Assembly and promulgated differ for 2028-2030 (68.3/72.8/76.3 versus 69.5/72.6/75.7): the cost schedule uses the promulgated law. Part of the military aid to Ukraine is funded in the programming law: overlap declared with ending bilateral aid. Initial trajectory of Law no. 2023-703 (article 4), before its update: €53.7bn / €56.9bn / €60.4bn / €63.9bn / €67.4bn from 2026 to 2030 (€400bn over 2024-2030); the update adds about €36bn over 2026-2030 (338.2 versus 302.3) and €8.3bn in 2030 (75.7 versus 67.4). Refusing these €36bn amounts to returning to the initial trajectory: €8.3bn in 2030, i.e. about 0.24 points of 2030 GDP (€3,467bn: 2025 GDP × 1.03^5, the same assumption as for 2032 GDP), maintained in 2032 (editors' calculation).
- Légifrance, loi n° 2026-791 du 16 août 2026 actualisant la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030, 2026-08-16: « « porter l'effort national de défense de 2 % du produit intérieur brut en 2025 à 2,5 % au minimum en 2030 » ; objectif de 3,5 % à l'horizon 2035 ; trajectoire actualisée (Md€) : 47,2 / 50,5 / 57,1 / 63,3 / 69,5 / 72,6 / 75,7, total 435,7 »
- Légifrance, loi n° 2023-703 du 1er août 2023 relative à la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030, article 4, 2023-08-01: « Crédits de paiement de la mission « Défense » (en milliards d'euros courants, hors charges de pensions, à périmètre constant) : 2024 47,2 ; 2025 50,5 ; 2026 53,7 ; 2027 56,9 ; 2028 60,4 ; 2029 63,9 ; 2030 67,4 ; total 2024-2030 400 »
- Assemblée nationale, commissions de la défense et des finances, compte rendu n° 79 du 9 avril 2026, audition de Mme Carine Camby (Cour des comptes) sur l'actualisation de la programmation militaire, 2026-04-09: « « une trajectoire de crédit de paiement pour la mission Défense s'élevant à 400 milliards d'euros » ; « Les crédits atteindraient ainsi 67 milliards d'euros courants en 2030 » ; « un effort supplémentaire important : 36 milliards d'euros de plus sur cinq ans » ; « Les crédits atteindraient ainsi 76 milliards en 2030. » »
- Assemblée nationale, texte adopté n° 287 (première lecture, 19 mai 2026), 2026-05-19: « « à hauteur de 2,5 % au minimum en 2030, avec l'objectif d'atteindre 3,5 % à l'horizon 2035 » ; trajectoire 2028-2030 : 68,3 / 72,8 / 76,3 »
- Insee, Les comptes de la Nation en 2025 (Insee Première), 2026-05: « « Le PIB augmente de 0,8 % en 2025 en volume et atteint 2991,1 milliards d'euros. » ; évolution en valeur : +1,9 % »
- OTAN, Déclaration du sommet de La Haye, 2025-06-25: « Engagement de consacrer 5 % du PIB en 2035, dont au moins 3,5 % aux besoins de défense de base ; « The trajectory and balance of spending under this plan will be reviewed in 2029 » »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
This lever in the method · Costing for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
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