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Europe and defence, Édouard Philippe

Defence budget: LPM « de la massification » [“of massification”]; 250,000 reservists, 50,000 volunteers a year

Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.

The lever. Targeted defence effort, as a percentage of gross domestic product, and timetable for reaching it. Direction rule: ↑ greater defence effort.

« Porter le nombre de réservistes de 45 000 à 250 000 et le service militaire volontaire de 3 000 à 50 000 places par an. […] Lancer une nouvelle LPM (Loi de programmation militaire) de la massification, au-delà de la LPM actuelle qui épaissit les armées sans les étendre. »1

Translation by the editorsRaise the number of reservists from 45,000 to 250,000 and voluntary military service from 3,000 to 50,000 places a year. […] Launch a new LPM (Military Programming Act) of massification, beyond the current LPM, which thickens the armed forces without extending them.

Words of Édouard Philippe, Site de campagne « Avec Édouard 2027 », priorité « Pour une France plus sûre » (page non datée, consultée le 14 octobre 2026), 14 October 2026. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme.

No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 18 October 2026.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The cited source does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

New military programming act with no level of effort as a % of GDP or amount; reservists and military service volunteers with no announced cost: nothing to cost.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Act no. 2026-791 of 16 August 2026 updating the 2024-2030 military programming: national defence effort raised from 2% of GDP in 2025 « à 2,5 % au minimum en 2030 » [“to at least 2.5% in 2030”], with the aim of reaching 3.5% by 2035. Payment appropriations for the « Défense » mission: €57.1bn (2026), 63.3 (2027), 69.5 (2028), 72.6 (2029), 75.7 (2030), i.e. €435.7bn over 2024-2030 (+€36bn over 2026-2030). NATO Hague commitment (June 2025): 5% of GDP in 2035, of which at least 3.5% on defence in the strict sense, with a review in 2029.

Horizon. Full year 2032, current €bn, static. 2032 GDP calculated by the editors: 2025 GDP (€2,991.1bn) × nominal growth of 2.5% / 3% / 3.5% per year over 7 years, i.e. €3,556bn / €3,679bn / €3,806bn.

Limits. Cost schedule rule: the reference law is the latest level set by the military programming law in force, at least 2.5% of GDP in 2030, maintained in 2032 (current value of the parameter: 2.5). Beyond 2030, the law sets only a TARGET of 3.5% in 2035, without annual steps: it is not part of the baseline. A position at 3.5% or at 2% is costed by the linear parameter from this baseline; a position “at least 3%” is costed at the 3% floor. Nominal growth of 2.5% to 3.5% per year up to 2032 is a calculation assumption, not an official forecast. The « effort national de défense » (national defence effort) in the NATO sense includes military pensions and differs from the appropriations of the « Défense » mission (€75.7bn in 2030 excluding pensions). The trajectories adopted in the National Assembly and promulgated differ for 2028-2030 (68.3/72.8/76.3 versus 69.5/72.6/75.7): the cost schedule uses the promulgated law. Part of the military aid to Ukraine is funded in the programming law: overlap declared with ending bilateral aid. Initial trajectory of Law no. 2023-703 (article 4), before its update: €53.7bn / €56.9bn / €60.4bn / €63.9bn / €67.4bn from 2026 to 2030 (€400bn over 2024-2030); the update adds about €36bn over 2026-2030 (338.2 versus 302.3) and €8.3bn in 2030 (75.7 versus 67.4). Refusing these €36bn amounts to returning to the initial trajectory: €8.3bn in 2030, i.e. about 0.24 points of 2030 GDP (€3,467bn: 2025 GDP × 1.03^5, the same assumption as for 2032 GDP), maintained in 2032 (editors' calculation).

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Édouard Philippe

  1. Site de campagne « Avec Édouard 2027 », priorité « Pour une France plus sûre » (page non datée, consultée le 14 octobre 2026), 14 October 2026. Words of Édouard Philippe. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme. Read the source (Site de campagne « Avec Édouard 2027 », priorité « Pour une France plus sûre » (page non datée, consultée le 14 octobre 2026)).

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