Europe and defence, Marine Le Pen
Defence budget: Defence effort of at least 3% of GDP by 2030 (RN amendment)
Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.
The lever. Targeted defence effort, as a percentage of gross domestic product, and timetable for reaching it. Direction rule: ↑ greater defence effort.
« « puis engager une trajectoire visant au minimum 3 % du produit intérieur brut à l’horizon 2030 ». […] Cette exigence est portée de longue date par le Rassemblement national, dont le programme prévoit depuis 2017 de porter l’effort de défense à minimum 3 % du PIB. »1Translation by the editors“then embark on a trajectory aiming at a minimum of 3% of gross domestic product by 2030”. […] This demand has long been championed by the Rassemblement national, whose programme has since 2017 planned to raise the defence effort to a minimum of 3% of GDP.
Words of Laurent Jacobelli, RN spokesperson, MP for the Moselle, first signatory, Assemblée nationale, amendement n° 565 au projet de loi actualisant la programmation militaire 2024-2030 (rejeté le 4 mai 2026), 29 April 2026. Words of an associate of the candidate: they do not formally commit the candidate.
Link to the candidacy: Amendment by RN MPs, who present it as the programme of the Rassemblement national, Marine Le Pen's party.
No programme released. Positions taken from public statements, words of associates or documents of the candidate’s party, each dated and sourced; last recorded on 18 October 2026.
Encoding
| Parameter | Current law | Proposed | Effective date or horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defence effort in 2032 | 2.5 % of GDP | 3 % of GDP (assumption by the editors, see the costing) | Full year 2032, current €bn, static. 2032 GDP calculated by the editors: 2025 GDP (€2,991.1bn) × nominal growth of 2.5% / 3% / 3.5% per year over 7 years, i.… |
Costing
Announced by the candidate
not announced
The cited source does not cost this measure.
Published costings
none
No external costing of this position recorded to date.
Our calculation
−€18bn
per year for the public accounts, new spending, range −€19bn to −€18bn.
The calculation
- Defence effort in 2032: (3 − 2.5) ÷ 0.1 = 5 times “+0.1 point of GDP of defence effort in 2032”, each a cost of €3.68bn (3.56 to 3.81).
Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. « Au minimum 3 % du PIB à l'horizon 2030 » [“At least 3% of GDP by 2030”]: costed at the floor, 3%, read as the 2032 level, i.e. about €18.4bn more than the reference law (2.5% of GDP, set by the military programming act for 2030 and maintained in 2032); the act also targets 3.5% in 2035. Objective of an amendment by RN MPs (rejected), presented as the programme of the candidate's party, adopted as her position; her budget trajectory (6 October 2026) gives no level for it in the reports read.
Coefficient calculated by the editors from Légifrance, loi n° 2026-791 du 16 août 2026 actualisant la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.
Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule
Current law. Act no. 2026-791 of 16 August 2026 updating the 2024-2030 military programming: national defence effort raised from 2% of GDP in 2025 « à 2,5 % au minimum en 2030 » [“to at least 2.5% in 2030”], with the aim of reaching 3.5% by 2035. Payment appropriations for the « Défense » mission: €57.1bn (2026), 63.3 (2027), 69.5 (2028), 72.6 (2029), 75.7 (2030), i.e. €435.7bn over 2024-2030 (+€36bn over 2026-2030). NATO Hague commitment (June 2025): 5% of GDP in 2035, of which at least 3.5% on defence in the strict sense, with a review in 2029.
Horizon. Full year 2032, current €bn, static. 2032 GDP calculated by the editors: 2025 GDP (€2,991.1bn) × nominal growth of 2.5% / 3% / 3.5% per year over 7 years, i.e. €3,556bn / €3,679bn / €3,806bn.
Limits. Cost schedule rule: the reference law is the latest level set by the military programming law in force, at least 2.5% of GDP in 2030, maintained in 2032 (current value of the parameter: 2.5). Beyond 2030, the law sets only a TARGET of 3.5% in 2035, without annual steps: it is not part of the baseline. A position at 3.5% or at 2% is costed by the linear parameter from this baseline; a position “at least 3%” is costed at the 3% floor. Nominal growth of 2.5% to 3.5% per year up to 2032 is a calculation assumption, not an official forecast. The « effort national de défense » (national defence effort) in the NATO sense includes military pensions and differs from the appropriations of the « Défense » mission (€75.7bn in 2030 excluding pensions). The trajectories adopted in the National Assembly and promulgated differ for 2028-2030 (68.3/72.8/76.3 versus 69.5/72.6/75.7): the cost schedule uses the promulgated law. Part of the military aid to Ukraine is funded in the programming law: overlap declared with ending bilateral aid. Initial trajectory of Law no. 2023-703 (article 4), before its update: €53.7bn / €56.9bn / €60.4bn / €63.9bn / €67.4bn from 2026 to 2030 (€400bn over 2024-2030); the update adds about €36bn over 2026-2030 (338.2 versus 302.3) and €8.3bn in 2030 (75.7 versus 67.4). Refusing these €36bn amounts to returning to the initial trajectory: €8.3bn in 2030, i.e. about 0.24 points of 2030 GDP (€3,467bn: 2025 GDP × 1.03^5, the same assumption as for 2032 GDP), maintained in 2032 (editors' calculation).
- Légifrance, loi n° 2026-791 du 16 août 2026 actualisant la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030, 2026-08-16: « « porter l'effort national de défense de 2 % du produit intérieur brut en 2025 à 2,5 % au minimum en 2030 » ; objectif de 3,5 % à l'horizon 2035 ; trajectoire actualisée (Md€) : 47,2 / 50,5 / 57,1 / 63,3 / 69,5 / 72,6 / 75,7, total 435,7 »
- Légifrance, loi n° 2023-703 du 1er août 2023 relative à la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030, article 4, 2023-08-01: « Crédits de paiement de la mission « Défense » (en milliards d'euros courants, hors charges de pensions, à périmètre constant) : 2024 47,2 ; 2025 50,5 ; 2026 53,7 ; 2027 56,9 ; 2028 60,4 ; 2029 63,9 ; 2030 67,4 ; total 2024-2030 400 »
- Assemblée nationale, commissions de la défense et des finances, compte rendu n° 79 du 9 avril 2026, audition de Mme Carine Camby (Cour des comptes) sur l'actualisation de la programmation militaire, 2026-04-09: « « une trajectoire de crédit de paiement pour la mission Défense s'élevant à 400 milliards d'euros » ; « Les crédits atteindraient ainsi 67 milliards d'euros courants en 2030 » ; « un effort supplémentaire important : 36 milliards d'euros de plus sur cinq ans » ; « Les crédits atteindraient ainsi 76 milliards en 2030. » »
- Assemblée nationale, texte adopté n° 287 (première lecture, 19 mai 2026), 2026-05-19: « « à hauteur de 2,5 % au minimum en 2030, avec l'objectif d'atteindre 3,5 % à l'horizon 2035 » ; trajectoire 2028-2030 : 68,3 / 72,8 / 76,3 »
- Insee, Les comptes de la Nation en 2025 (Insee Première), 2026-05: « « Le PIB augmente de 0,8 % en 2025 en volume et atteint 2991,1 milliards d'euros. » ; évolution en valeur : +1,9 % »
- OTAN, Déclaration du sommet de La Haye, 2025-06-25: « Engagement de consacrer 5 % du PIB en 2035, dont au moins 3,5 % aux besoins de défense de base ; « The trajectory and balance of spending under this plan will be reviewed in 2029 » »
How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.
- Assemblée nationale, amendement n° 565 au projet de loi actualisant la programmation militaire 2024-2030 (rejeté le 4 mai 2026), 29 April 2026. Words of Laurent Jacobelli, RN spokesperson, MP for the Moselle, first signatory. Words of an associate of the candidate: they do not formally commit the candidate. Read the source (Assemblée nationale, amendement n° 565 au projet de loi actualisant la programmation militaire 2024-2030 (rejeté le 4 mai 2026)).
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