Marine Le Pen’s positions: what we were able to cost

Effects on households

Eight model households, annual disposable income, calculated with OpenFisca-France for only the measures the engine can simulate (1 measure). A zero difference means that these measures do not affect this household, not that the programme changes nothing for it. *: at least one simulated measure rests on a reading by the editors. The detail, household by household, and the comparison with the other candidates.

The public accounts

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

Line by line

• LeverPositionEffect on the public accounts, per year
• Defence budgetDefence effort of at least 3% of GDP by 2030 (RN amendment)Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Légifrance, loi n° 2026-791 du 16 août 2026 actualisant la programmation militaire pour les années 2024 à 2030: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. « Au minimum 3 % du PIB à l'horizon 2030 » [“At least 3% of GDP by 2030”]: costed at the floor, 3%, read as the 2032 level, i.e. about €18.4bn more than the reference law (2.5% of GDP, set by the military programming act for 2030 and maintained in 2032); the act also targets 3.5% in 2035. Objective of an amendment by RN MPs (rejected), presented as the programme of the candidate's party, adopted as her position; her budget trajectory (6 October 2026) gives no level for it in the reports read.−€18bnnew spending, −€19bn to −€18bn
• Legal retirement ageReturn to 62, 60 for those who started work before 20Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from COR, Rapport annuel juin 2026, Synthèse: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Retirement at 60 after 40 years of contributions for those who started work before 20 is not costed. The funding announced by the candidate at her press conference of 6 October 2026, « des corrections de mesures injustes ou inefficaces du système actuel permettant de dégager entre 15 et 20 milliards d'économie à terme » [“corrections of unfair or inefficient measures in the current system freeing up between 15 and 20 billion in savings over time”], is not detailed: it is not counted. This cost and that of the 42-year contribution period, costed separately, add up, minus their common share: the effect of the contribution period already included in the central coefficient for the age (COR costing), about €1.8bn at the centre, zero at the bounds, which cost the age alone. This share is deducted from this cost: deducted from that of the contribution period, it would have reversed its bounds (overlap declared in the cost schedule). Of which €1.8bn not added, common base with “Contribution period”. For a decrease in both age and contribution period, the common part is the effect of the period already included in the age coefficient. The COR costing (€7.2bn per year of age), one of the three whose average is the central value (7.3), freezes the period by one quarter per quarter of age, i.e. about €3bn per year of age at €0.75bn per quarter (Cour des comptes): €1bn out of 7.3 at the centre (14%); the lower bound (Cour des comptes) and the upper bound (Institut Montaigne) cost age alone. Editors' calculation. The common part is withheld from this amount, the larger of the two: as it varies from one bound to the other, withholding it from the smaller one would have inverted its bounds; the sum of the two, bound by bound, is the same.−€11bnnew spending, −€16bn to −€10bn; €1.8bn more, costed, not added
• VATReduced VAT on energy: motor fuels, electricity, gas, heating oilAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from DG Trésor, Trésor-Éco n° 371, « Analyse de la composition des recettes de TVA » (M. Gesta), septembre 2025, tableaux 1 et 2 (pages 4 et 5 du PDF): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. The press kit for the counter-budget presented on 6 October 2026 is not published online, and no report quotes the candidate on the energy sources targeted that day: the media's readings of it diverge (gas and electricity for franceinfo; motor fuels, wood and heating oil as well for CNews) and are not used. The energy sources the candidate herself cites on 16 September 2026 are costed: motor fuels, electricity, gas and heating oil. Rate used, 5.5%: « Nous voulons baisser la TVA sur l'énergie à 5,5% » [“We want to cut VAT on energy to 5.5%”] (title of a video on her official YouTube channel, 21 November 2025); « Baisser de 20% à 5,5 % la TVA sur les carburants » [“Cut VAT on motor fuels from 20% to 5.5%”] (ICI Gironde, 18 September 2026, remarks quoted by Orange Actu). Editors' reading: the statement of 16 September 2026 does not restate the rate. The 2026 counter-budget published by the RN (press conference of 23 October 2025, p. 4) states « Baisse de la TVA sur les énergies (gaz, électricité, carburants, bois, fioul) » [“Cut in VAT on energy (gas, electricity, motor fuels, wood, heating oil)”] and costs it at €10.96bn: wood, absent from the cost schedule and from the candidate's remarks, is not costed (partial). The reduced rate on motor fuels is not permitted by the VAT Directive. Not counted here: the abolition of VAT on 100 basic necessities, included in the same RN document (€3.5bn), with no published list.−€9.5bnrevenue cut, −€11bn to −€9.5bn
• Place in the European UnionNet EU contribution cut to €5bn in the next financial frameworkAssumption by the editors. Reading adopted: net contribution (levy minus returns) brought down to €5bn, a reduction assumed to be obtained in the negotiation of the next financial framework, costed on the finance act as voted: levy of €28.44bn in 2026, average returns of €16.4bn (net contribution of €12.04bn); a net contribution of €5bn corresponds to a levy of €21.4bn, i.e. a gain of €7.04bn. On the 2024 net accounting balance (€7.9bn), the gain would be only €2.9bn. The means (savings on European programmes, unanimity) and the transfer to the Union of a tax on tobacco and alcohol, announced the same day, are not assessed.+€7bnsaving
• Production taxes€20bn cut in production taxesAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. The candidate does not say which taxes are cut. Reading used: abolition of the CVAE and the C3S, two of the three taxes abolished by the RN's 2026 counter-budget (« Baisse impôt de production : suppression de la CFE », « suppression totale de la CVAE », « suppression de la C3S » [“Cut in production tax: abolition of the CFE”, “total abolition of the CVAE”, “abolition of the C3S”], €8.8bn, €2.6bn and €4.8bn, p. 7). The abolition of the CVAE, already provided for by law for 2030, costs nothing in 2032; the CFE (€7.7bn) has no option in the cost schedule and is not counted, nor is the rest of the €20bn announced, which is not detailed.−€5.2bnrevenue cut
• Contribution period42 years of contributions, reached graduallyAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Service-public.fr, fiche F35063 (durée d'assurance par génération): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. 42 years, i.e. 168 quarters, read as the period eventually required of everyone except long careers: the candidate requires 40 years for a career started before 20, then an increasing period « jusqu'à 24 ans et demi » [“up to 24 and a half”], without saying which period applies in between; these periods of 40 to 42 years are not costed (retirement at 60 falls under the long-careers lever). This cost and that of the legal retirement age of 62, costed separately, add up, minus their common share (the effect of the contribution period already included in the central coefficient for the age), deducted from the cost of the age (overlap declared in the cost schedule). Overlap with “Legal retirement age”: the estimated common part (€1.8bn) is withheld from “Legal retirement age”; this one is counted in full.−€3bnnew spending, −€4bn to −€2bn
• Public broadcastingPrivatisation of public broadcasting (2024 RN programme)Assumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from AN, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Médias, livre et industries culturelles ; Avances à l'audiovisuel public (D. Masséglia): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Rassemblement national programme for the 2024 legislative elections, a document of the candidate's party, adopted as her position as long as she has no programme (she already proposed this privatisation in 2022). Scope not stated, read as for all: at least France Télévisions and Radio France (€3.0bn net, central value and lower bound), at most all the companies (€3.88bn). Transition costs and the one-off proceeds of the sales are not counted. The €0.154bn cut in the RN's 2026 counter-budget applies to the 2026 budget alone: not counted.+€3bnsaving, +€3bn to +€3.9bn
• Personal housing benefits (APL)APL reserved for French nationals (national priority)Assumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from AN, rapport spécial PLF 2026, Logement et hébergement d'urgence: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: personal housing aid paid only to households whose recipient is of French nationality. Rule common to the candidates who reserve a benefit for French nationals (decision of 18 October 2026), on €16.5bn of housing aid (2025, excluding APL for non-EU students who do not hold means-tested grants, already abolished): lower bound, share of foreigners in the population (9.1% in 2025, Insee), €1.5bn; upper bound and central value, share of spending paid to non-EU households (16.4%, ministerial answer of 2023), €2.7bn, which does not count European Union nationals. Legal compliance not assessed (principle of equality, European Union law, bilateral social security agreements), as elsewhere in the cost schedule. Central value at the upper bound, and not at the lower bound as for family allowances: for APL (housing benefit), the share of spending paid to foreign households is published (16.4%, ministerial answer of 2023), a direct measure of the quantity costed, and it is a minimum for a measure that targets all foreigners (Union nationals excluded); for family allowances, no share is published (upper bound pending from the Cnaf), and the range comes down to the lower bound. The possible retention of households in which one member is French, not measured, would work in the opposite direction. Same rule for both candidates.+€2.7bnsaving, +€1.5bn to +€2.7bn
• Family quotientFull tax share from the second childAssumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from IGAS et IGF, Revue des dépenses socio-fiscales en faveur de la politique familiale, juillet 2021 (page 41 du PDF): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading: each household with two or more children receives an additional half-share (a full share for the second child), whose benefit is capped like the others (€1,807 in 2026), as the text does not set a specific cap; without a cap, the cost would be higher. Cost calculated by the editors on the 2019 breakdown of the family quotient by family size (IGAS-IGF, 2021): €2.2bn to €3.0bn, 2.6 at the centre, to be replaced by a microsimulation. The RN counter-budget's €2.86bn falls within this range.−€2.6bnrevenue cut, −€3bn to −€2.2bn
• Adaptation to climate changePlan clim: €10bn over 5 years to air-condition nurseries, schools, hospitals, care homesAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Candidate’s amount, taken as is. Reading used: €10bn over five years, the first five-year term, to air-condition the public buildings that serve the most vulnerable, i.e. €2bn a year; the next €10bn falls after 2032. The interest the State would pay on zero-interest loans to individuals is not counted (partial costing): its amount is given only by journalists, and the candidate says of her renovation and air-conditioning policy that « sous le premier quinquennat, cette politique sera bénéficiaire » [“during the first five-year term, this policy will be profitable”] (press conference of 6 October 2026), without figures. The loans themselves, being repaid, are not spending. The « Suppression du fonds vert hors dépenses pour inondations et feux de forêts » [“Abolition of the green fund except spending on floods and forest fires”], included in the RN's 2026 counter-budget (23 October 2025, p. 7, €0.46bn in savings), is not counted; the « 100 % rénov » plan falls under the renovations lever.−€2bnnew spending
• High cost of living overseasEnd of the octroi de mer (overseas dock dues), fully compensated to local authoritiesAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Banque des Territoires, « L'octroi de mer ne contribue que marginalement à la vie chère, selon un rapport » (étude AMF / ACCD'OM): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. The « enveloppe de 3 milliards supplémentaires d'ici 2032 » [“envelope of 3 billion more by 2032”] for the overseas territories, a cumulative amount with no annual schedule, is not costed.−€1.6bnnew spending, −€1.9bn to −€1.6bn
• Family allowancesFamily allowances reserved for French nationals (national priority)Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from solidarites.gouv.fr, Revalorisation annuelle au 1er avril 2026: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: family allowances paid only to recipients of French nationality. Rule common to the candidates who reserve a benefit for French nationals (decision of 18 October 2026): lower bound, share of foreigners in the population (9.1% in 2025, Insee) × family allowance spending (€13.9bn in 2025), €1.27bn; upper bound, share of allowances paid to foreign recipients, which neither the Cnaf nor the Drees publishes: upper bound pending from the Cnaf, taken as equal to the lower bound (partial costing). The RN counter-budget of 6 October 2026 adopts a different rule, « un parent français » [“one French parent”], which would leave mixed families covered and reduce the gain. Not costed: the subsidy for the third child (2024 programme), with no amount. Legal compliance not assessed (principle of equality, European Union law, bilateral social security agreements), as elsewhere in the cost schedule.+€1.3bnsaving
• Energy renovations per yearMaPrimeRénov’ replaced by a zero-interest loan, with no numerical target* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 91,374 homes only). Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Chiffres clés de l'Anah 2024 (DREAL Corse): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated, the cost of the zero-rate loan replacing MaPrimeRénov' not being deducted; lower bound: average aid for a major renovation in a co-owned building (€11,818). Reading adopted, the same as for Bruno Retailleau and Éric Zemmour: MaPrimeRénov', which is replaced, is costed through the end of aid for major renovations; per-measure aid is not costed. The « 100% rénov » zero-interest loan that replaces it has no announced volume or cost: its budgetary cost (interest borne by the State) is not deducted, and the gain is overestimated accordingly. The conversion of vacant offices into housing has no amount.+€1.1bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}saving, +€1.1bn to +€3.3bn
• Windfall profits and share buybacksTax on share buybacks, €8.4bn expected (RN counter-budget)Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from PLF 2026, Voies et moyens tome I: the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading: the line « Taxe sur les rachats d'action » [“Tax on share buybacks”] in the counter-budget (€8.4bn) corresponds to amendment No. I-105 of the RN group to the PLF 2026 (17 October 2025, adopted), which expects « 8,415 milliards d'euros la première année » [“8.415 billion euros in the first year”] from it: rate raised from 8% to 33%, base extended to the acquisition value of the shares, threshold lowered from €1bn to €750m of turnover. Costed: the 33% rate on the current base, which yields €200m a year at 8% on a permanent basis, i.e. €0.63bn more (static; such a high rate would discourage buybacks, which the amendment itself aims at). Not costed: the widening of the base and of the scope, with no public base (the €25.5bn of buybacks in 2025 in the amendment's explanatory statement are not sourced). The same counter-budget separately enters a « Taxe sur les superdividendes » [“Tax on super-dividends”] (€0.75bn).+€0.6bnnew revenue
• Flat-rate levy on capital (flat tax)Flat tax (PFU) cut from 31.4% to 30%* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 12.8% only). Assumption by the editors. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, rapport général n° 108 (2017-2018) sur le PLF 2018, tome II, examen de l'article 11 (prélèvement forfaitaire unique): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. The candidate brings the flat tax (PFU) « à 30 % » [“to 30%”]; it has stood at 31.4% since the LFSS 2026 (12.8% income tax and 18.6% social levies, including CSG raised from 9.2% to 10.6% on most investment income), and she does not say which part falls. Reading used, the same as for Raphaël Glucksmann: a 1.4-point cut borne by the income tax part (12.8 → 11.4%), costed with the coefficient for that part (€0.41bn per point at the centre, editors' calculation); a return of the CSG on this income to 9.2% would apply to a similar base. No amount announced.−€0.6bn^{* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)}revenue cut, −€0.6bn to −€0.5bn
• Support for UkraineEnd of financial support; training and military equipment maintainedAssumption by the editors. Partial costing. Coefficient calculated by the editors from Ministère des Armées, Rapport au Parlement 2025 sur les exportations d'armement de la France (page 11 du PDF): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors. Reading adopted: the end of « financier » [“financial”] support, with training and military equipment maintained, ends bilateral civil aid (humanitarian aid and Ukraine Fund, about €0.24bn a year). Not costed: the French share of the interest on the €90bn European loan, already committed, refusal of which would require the agreement of the other States.+€0.2bnsaving
• University tuition feesAbolition of the CVEC, « un gain immédiat de 105 € » [“an immediate gain of €105”] per student−€0.2bnrevenue cut
• Pension indexationAgainst de-indexing pensions from inflationAssumption by the editors. Refusal of de-indexation read as maintaining the current rule: basic pensions are uprated each year in line with inflation (Social Security Code, art. L. 161-25), zero cost. Same reading as for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and Fabien Roussel. The €3.61bn that the RN's 2026 counter-budget (23 October 2025, p. 7) enters for « Indexation des retraites et dégel des prestations » [“Indexation of pensions and unfreezing of benefits”] is measured against the freeze in the 2026 social security financing bill, which was not retained: nothing to count relative to current law.€0bnzero cost
• 10% allowance on pensionsPensioners' 10% tax allowance kept, flat-rate allowance rejected (RN)€0bnzero cost

Overlaps

Amounts announced by the candidate

The amounts that Marine Le Pen puts forward, with the direction given to them (“+”: gain for the public accounts, “−”: cost). They are never added to the totals or to each other. The gap with our calculation is only given when both cover the same scope: not for a position that is not costed, costed in part, based on an assumption by the editors, or whose amount is the candidate’s own, taken as is; and only when the announcement falls outside the range of our calculation (otherwise: “within the range”).

• LeverWhat the candidate saysAnnounced, per year
• Wealth tax (IFI, ISF)€4bn of revenue for the « IFF à la place de la taxe sur les holdings et de l'IFI » [“IFF instead of the tax on holding companies and the IFI”] (RN 2026 counter-budget, 23 October 2025, p. 7)Position not costed. Quoted, not counted.+€4bnnew revenue
• Announced savings€140bn of net savings in 2032 compared with 2026 (press conference of 6 October 2026)Position not costed. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Family allowancesRN counter-budget of 6 October 2026: €5.9bn in 2031 for « Prestations familiales : un parent français » [“Family benefits: one French parent”] (according to the analysis by the Institut de l'Entreprise); the candidate attributes to her immigration policy and the « priorité nationale » [“national priority”] taken together €15bn in savings in the first year and €29bn in a full year (6 October 2026).Our calculation: +€1.3bn per year. No gap calculated: the announcement covers a different scope or a different year.+€5.9bnsaving
• Place in the European UnionFrance's net contribution to the European Union brought down to €5bn (press conference of 6 October 2026); €8.7bn cut in the contribution in the RN's 2026 counter-budget (23 October 2025, p. 7)Our calculation: +€7bn per year. Amount to be read in the quote.—direction to be read in the quote
• Windfall profits and share buybacks€8.4bn (RN 2026 counter-budget, line « Taxe sur les rachats d'action » [“Tax on share buybacks”])Our calculation: +€0.6bn per year. No gap calculated: costing based on an assumption by the editors.+€8.4bnnew revenue
• Production taxes€20bn cut in production taxes (press conference of 6 October 2026); €16.2bn for abolishing the CFE, the CVAE and the C3S in the RN's 2026 counter-budget (23 October 2025, p. 7)Our calculation: −€5.2bn per year. No gap calculated: the announcement covers a different scope or a different year.−€20bnrevenue cut
• Family quotient€2.860bn (RN 2026 counter-budget, line « Part fiscale pleine dès le deuxième enfant » [“Full tax share from the second child”])Our calculation: −€2.6bn per year. No gap calculated: costing based on an assumption by the editors.−€2.9bnrevenue cut
• RSA (minimum income), amount and conditions€6.1bn in savings (RN 2026 counter-budget, all « prestations de solidarités » [“solidarity benefits”] combined)Position not costed. Quoted, not counted.+€6.1bnsaving

What this costing does not measure

• Growth and employmentThe effect of the measures on activity and employment, and the revenue gained or lost as a result; it depends on the economic model used: models and feedback effects.
• Education, health, researchLong-term effects on human capital, productivity and innovation.
• InequalityThe distribution of gains and losses across the whole population, beyond the eight model households.
• Public servicesWhat new spending or savings change in the quality of the services provided and in access to them.
• Environment and climateEffects on emissions, natural resources and adaptation to climate change.
• Sovereignty and external dependenceEffects on the country’s dependence on other countries: energy, industry, defence, supplies.
• Interest rates on the debtThe effect of a programme on the terms on which the State borrows, which also depend on the make-up of the holders of its debt.