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Climate, Bruno Retailleau

Energy renovations per year: MaPrimeRénov' abolished (€2bn), a « relais » [“successor”] announced without detail

Direction of change: abolition of a scheme, compared with current law.

The lever. Number of homes renovated each year to reduce their energy consumption, according to the programme's target. Direction rule: ↑ more subsidised renovations.

« supprimer les dispositifs sans résultat démontré (14 Md€). […] Transition : MaPrimeRénov’ […] 2,0 PLF 2027 ; Cour des comptes 2021 »1

Translation by the editorsabolish schemes without proven results (€14bn). […] Transition: MaPrimeRénov’ […] 2.0 PLF 2027; Cour des comptes 2021

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Major renovations assisted per year91,374 homes0 homes* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation) (assumption by the editors, see the costing)Direct public aid in a full year

Costing

Announced by the candidate

+€2bn

per year, saving. €2.0bn of savings in 2032 on the « Transition : MaPrimeRénov’ » line (press fact sheet no. 4); in the opposite direction, « Relais de MaPrimeRénov’ et TVA sur les certificats » [“Successor to MaPrimeRénov’ and VAT on certificates”], €3.0bn given back to households (fact sheet no. 14), with no split between the two.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

+€1.1bn* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)

per year for the public accounts, saving, range +€1.1bn to +€3.3bn.

* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 91,374 homes only).

The calculation

  • Major renovations assisted per year: (0 − 91,374) ÷ 100,000 = -0.91 times “+100,000 major renovations assisted per year”, each a cost of €2.6bn (1.2 to 3.6). Proposed value outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 91,374 homes only). A single year measured by Anah (2024: 91,374 major renovations, average aid per dwelling); any other value is a linear extrapolation, flagged as such. Central value brought down to the smallest amount (€1.2bn per step).

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Reading adopted: MaPrimeRénov', listed among the abolished « dispositifs sans résultat démontré » [“schemes with no demonstrated result”] (press fact sheet no. 4, €2bn of savings in 2032), is costed as the end of grants for major renovations; per-measure grants are not costed. Fact sheet no. 14 gives back to households a « Relais de MaPrimeRénov’ » [“successor to MaPrimeRénov’”], counted together with VAT on energy saving certificates (€3bn together), with no form or amount of its own: it is not deducted, and the gain is overestimated accordingly.

Coefficient calculated by the editors from Chiffres clés de l'Anah 2024 (DREAL Corse): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.

Central value brought down to the smallest amount: gain acknowledged as overestimated, as the successor to MaPrimeRénov' announced by the candidate is not deducted; lower bound: average grant for a major renovation in a co-owned building (€11,818).

Figure announced by the candidate: no gap calculated: the announcement covers a different scope or a different year.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. The main instrument is MaPrimeRénov' (Anah). It comprises an assisted pathway for major renovations, per-measure aid and aid for co-owned buildings. It is supplemented by energy savings certificates (CEE). In 2024: 91,374 major renovations (€2,386m in aid) and 340,801 dwellings assisted in total (€3.29bn). The scheme was suspended from June to September 2025, then reopened on 23 February 2026 after the LFI 2026. The final amount of 2026 appropriations differs between sources (€3.5bn or €4.3bn in Anah commitments) and has not been checked in the act.

Horizon. Direct public aid in a full year. Anah 2024 scale in current euros. Includes neither the CEE (energy saving certificates), funded by energy suppliers, nor the cost of support services.

Limits. Central value: average aid across all major renovations (€2,386m / 91,374 ≈ €26,100). Lower bound: average aid in jointly owned buildings (€11,818). Upper bound: individual supported pathway (€36,271). In 2024, 59% of households aided for a major renovation were very low-income: a higher target would reach better-off households, with lower unit aid but an uncertain take-up rate. Fraud justified the 2025 suspension. A target announced in “renovated” homes is converted into major renovations before applying this cost schedule. Only the 2024 financial year is published by Anah in the sources read (key figures); 2025 volumes are known only from the press: the parameter's domain is limited to 2024.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. avecretailleau.fr, fiches presse « Rétablir l'ordre dans les comptes publics » (12 octobre 2026), fiche n° 4, p. 6. Open the document at this page.

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