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Income tax and CSG, Marine Tondelier

Flat-rate levy on capital (flat tax): CSG on capital income and flat tax raised by 3 points

Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.

The lever. Single rate applied to dividends, interest and capital gains on securities, tax and social levies included: maintained, increased or return to the income tax scale. Direction rule: ↑ heavier levy on capital income.

« Augmenter le taux de CSG sur les revenus du capital de 3 points avec le maintien des exonérations pour les livrets A et Développement Durable. Augmenter la flat tax (Prélèvement Forfaitaire Unique) de 3 points. »1

Translation by the editorsIncrease the CSG rate on capital income by 3 points while maintaining the exemptions for the livret A and Développement Durable savings accounts. Increase the flat tax (Prélèvement Forfaitaire Unique) by 3 points.

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Income tax component of the flat tax (PFU)12.8%15.8%* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation) (assumption by the editors, see the costing)Full year, in 2025 euros; to be indexed for 2032

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The programme does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

+€1.2bn* (outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation)

per year for the public accounts, new revenue, range +€1.1bn to +€1.2bn.

* Outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 12.8% only).

The calculation

  • Income tax component of the flat tax (PFU): (15.8 − 12.8) ÷ 1 = 3 times “1 point increase in the income tax component of the PFU (12.8% to 13.8%), static (derived: €5.3bn / 12.8)”, each a gain of €0.41bn (0.35 to 0.41). Proposed value outside the range measured by the source: linear extrapolation (measured range: 12.8% only). Coefficient calculated by the editors from the yield at the current rate (12.8%): any other value is a linear extrapolation, flagged as such.

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Reading adopted: a single 3-point increase, the increase in the CSG on capital raising the flat tax (PFU) by the same amount (the CSG being part of it); two increases are not counted. The 3 points are costed on the flat tax base with the coefficient for its income tax component (€0.41bn per point, same base). The CSG increase on other capital income (property income, life insurance, real estate capital gains) is not costed: a position carries only one parameter, and the cost schedule gives about €2bn per CSG point on all capital income, flat tax included.

Coefficient calculated by the editors from Sénat, rapport général n° 108 (2017-2018) sur le PLF 2018, tome II, examen de l'article 11 (prélèvement forfaitaire unique): the position is marked as an assumption by the editors.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Flat tax (PFU) of 31.4% since the LFSS 2026: 12.8% income tax and 18.6% social levies (CSG raised to 10.6% for most securities). It was 30% (12.8 + 17.2) from 2018 to 2025. The option for the income tax scale remains open. 2025 yield: €5.3bn of income tax on income and capital gains from securities; €18.5bn of CSG and CRDS on capital income; €14.4bn of other social contributions.

Horizon. Full year, in 2025 euros; to be indexed for 2032.

Limits. Capital income is highly sensitive to taxation: dividends jumped after 2018. Static costing therefore overstates the gain from an increase; behavioural effects are presented separately. The cost of €1.9bn of the PFU in 2019 (€1.3bn in 2018) is the Government's costing, assuming unchanged behaviour, reported by the Senate (general report on the PLF 2018); the same report cites economists' estimates of « une dizaine de milliards » [“around ten billion”] in steady state, not static and not counted. Upper bound: the Institut Montaigne (2022) costs the return to the income tax schedule at €2.1bn to €2.3bn « à assiette constante » [“on a constant base”] (ex ante cost of the PFU of €1.6bn to €1.8bn, updated with the growth in capital income from 2018 to 2022, in 2022 euros), and at €1.5bn with behavioural effects (not counted). Per-point calculations divide the revenue by the rate, without microsimulation.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Marine Tondelier

  1. Pour une prospérité écologique, programme des Écologistes, p. 68. Open the document at this page.

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