Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Climate, Bruno Retailleau

Adaptation to climate change: Adaptation ecology: equip schools, crèches, hospitals, Ehpad; store water

Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.

The lever. Public resources to cope with the effects of global warming (heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods, coastal submersion): national adaptation plan, risk prevention fund, civil protection. Excludes emissions reduction. Direction rule: ↑ more public resources for adaptation.

« À cette écologie de la régression, qui interdit tout et appauvrit chacun, nous devons opposer l’écologie de l’adaptation. S’adapter, c’est stocker l’eau l’hiver, quand elle est abondante, pour irriguer nos champs pendant l’été. […] S’adapter, c’est équiper enfin nos écoles, nos crèches, nos hôpitaux et nos Ehpad, pour que plus jamais on ne compte les glaçons au chevet de nos aînés. »1

Translation by the editorsTo this ecology of regression, which bans everything and impoverishes everyone, we must oppose the ecology of adaptation. Adapting means storing water in winter, when it is plentiful, to irrigate our fields during the summer. […] Adapting means finally equipping our schools, our crèches, our hospitals and our care homes, so that never again do we count the ice cubes at the bedside of our elders.

Words of Bruno Retailleau, La Tribune Dimanche, tribune « Face au réchauffement climatique, adapter la France plutôt que punir » (reprise sur republicains.fr), 9 August 2026. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme.

Encoding

No cost-schedule parameter for this position: see the costing for the reason.

Costing

Announced by the candidate

not announced

The cited source does not cost this measure.

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

not costed

Equipping schools, crèches, hospitals and care homes (Ehpad), and water storage, with no amount or timetable: nothing to cost. The same op-ed wants to cut other transition spending (Ademe, support for wind power), with no costed link to this equipment.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Third national climate change adaptation plan (PNACC-3), announced on 10 March 2025, which adopts a reference warming trajectory of +4 °C by 2100. Fonds de prévention des risques naturels majeurs (major natural hazards prevention fund, « fonds Barnier », programme 181): €300m in commitment authorisations and €228.8m in payment appropriations in the LFI 2026; €300m and €238.8m in the PLF 2027. Fonds vert (green fund): €1bn in commitment authorisations and €981.4m in payment appropriations in the PLF 2027, including a dedicated adaptation envelope of €500m in commitment authorisations.

Horizon. Spending in a full year, static: €1 announced = €1 of deficit, compared with current policies.

Limits. Envelope parameter, like public investment or rail: it applies only to an amount announced on top of current resources. A fund announced as a total amount that brings together existing appropriations is counted by the gap with those appropriations, in payment appropriations of the PLF 2027 (Barnier fund €238.8m, Fonds vert €981.4m), the reading in commitment appropriations (€300m and €1bn) being cited in the note. Adaptation spending is scattered (Barnier fund, Fonds vert, civil protection, agriculture, health, local authorities) and has no official total: the Cour des comptes (2024) notes « l'absence de chiffrages exhaustifs et cohérents pour l'ensemble des acteurs publics » [“the absence of exhaustive and consistent costings for all public actors”], and I4CE (2025) identifies €1.7bn explicitly dedicated to adaptation in 2025. Benchmarks, not counted: the National Assembly's flash fact-finding mission on summer 2026 (rapporteur Éric Coquerel) estimates the cost of that summer at about €16bn and puts the public spending needed from summer 2027 at between €10bn and €13.6bn; these are estimates, not coefficients. A plan that funds investment works may overlap a public investment envelope (overlap declared); a plan that strengthens hospitals or care homes (EHPAD) is not also counted on the hospital or old-age levers.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for Bruno Retailleau

  1. La Tribune Dimanche, tribune « Face au réchauffement climatique, adapter la France plutôt que punir » (reprise sur republicains.fr), 9 August 2026. Words of Bruno Retailleau. Position taken from public statements, not from a written programme. Read the source (La Tribune Dimanche, tribune « Face au réchauffement climatique, adapter la France plutôt que punir » (reprise sur republicains.fr)).

Contest this encoding (prefilled email; procedure and deadlines)