Déchiffrer 2027

FREN

Climate, François Ruffin

Adaptation to climate change: Climate emergency plan: firefighters, Canadair, Barnier fund raised to €1bn

Direction of change: increase, compared with current law.

The lever. Public resources to cope with the effects of global warming (heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods, coastal submersion): national adaptation plan, risk prevention fund, civil protection. Excludes emissions reduction. Direction rule: ↑ more public resources for adaptation.

« Au global, le renforcement des moyens humains coûterait environ 1 milliard d’euros par an à horizon 2032, et l’investissement dans de nouveaux matériels est estimé à un peu plus de 1,5 milliard d’euros sur 5 ans, soit 300 millions d’euros par an. […] Accroître les moyens du Fonds Barnier de prévention des risques naturels majeurs, de 300 millions d’euros en 2026 à 1 milliard d’euros en 2027 »1

Translation by the editorsOverall, the strengthening of human resources would cost about 1 billion euros a year by 2032, and investment in new equipment is estimated at a little over 1.5 billion euros over 5 years, i.e. 300 million euros a year. […] Increase the resources of the Fonds Barnier for the prevention of major natural risks, from 300 million euros in 2026 to 1 billion euros in 2027

Encoding

ParameterCurrent lawProgrammeEffective date or horizon
Additional public resources for climate change adaptation0 €bn/year2 €bn/year (assumption by the editors, see the costing)Spending in a full year, static: €1 announced = €1 of deficit, compared with current policies

Costing

Announced by the candidate

−€2bn

per year, cost to the public accounts. Plan urgence climat: human resources for firefighters and civil protection « environ 1 milliard d’euros par an à horizon 2032 » [“about €1bn a year by 2032”], equipment « 300 millions d’euros par an » [“€300m a year”], Barnier fund « de 300 millions d’euros en 2026 à 1 milliard d’euros en 2027 » [“from €300m in 2026 to €1bn in 2027”].

Published costings

none

No external costing of this position recorded to date.

Our calculation

−€2bn

per year for the public accounts, new spending. Candidate’s amount, taken as is.

The calculation

  • Additional public resources for climate change adaptation: (2 − 0) ÷ 1 = 2 times “+€1bn a year of public spending on climate change adaptation”, each a cost of €1bn (1 to 1).

Assumption by the editors. Partial costing. Reading adopted: human resources €1bn a year (amount announced for 2032), equipment €0.3bn a year and Barnier fund +€0.7bn (from €300m to €1bn), i.e. €2bn a year more than current resources. Not costed, for lack of an amount: aid to farmers (national solidarity compensation from 30% losses, €5,000 per affected farmer), free psychological support, the « reconstruction écologique » (ecological reconstruction) grant, the resources of the water agencies and the coverage of fires by the natural disasters scheme.

Figure announced by the candidate: candidate’s amount, taken as is.

Current law, sources and limits of the cost schedule

Current law. Third national climate change adaptation plan (PNACC-3), announced on 10 March 2025, which adopts a reference warming trajectory of +4 °C by 2100. Fonds de prévention des risques naturels majeurs (major natural hazards prevention fund, « fonds Barnier », programme 181): €300m in commitment authorisations and €228.8m in payment appropriations in the LFI 2026; €300m and €238.8m in the PLF 2027. Fonds vert (green fund): €1bn in commitment authorisations and €981.4m in payment appropriations in the PLF 2027, including a dedicated adaptation envelope of €500m in commitment authorisations.

Horizon. Spending in a full year, static: €1 announced = €1 of deficit, compared with current policies.

Limits. Envelope parameter, like public investment or rail: it applies only to an amount announced on top of current resources. A fund announced as a total amount that brings together existing appropriations is counted by the gap with those appropriations, in payment appropriations of the PLF 2027 (Barnier fund €238.8m, Fonds vert €981.4m), the reading in commitment appropriations (€300m and €1bn) being cited in the note. Adaptation spending is scattered (Barnier fund, Fonds vert, civil protection, agriculture, health, local authorities) and has no official total: the Cour des comptes (2024) notes « l'absence de chiffrages exhaustifs et cohérents pour l'ensemble des acteurs publics » [“the absence of exhaustive and consistent costings for all public actors”], and I4CE (2025) identifies €1.7bn explicitly dedicated to adaptation in 2025. Benchmarks, not counted: the National Assembly's flash fact-finding mission on summer 2026 (rapporteur Éric Coquerel) estimates the cost of that summer at about €16bn and puts the public spending needed from summer 2027 at between €10bn and €13.6bn; these are estimates, not coefficients. A plan that funds investment works may overlap a public investment envelope (overlap declared); a plan that strengthens hospitals or care homes (EHPAD) is not also counted on the hospital or old-age levers.

How to read these amounts. These are static costs and revenues, with no feedback effect, over a full year: nothing on growth, employment or the revenue that economic activity would gain or lose. A higher net cost does not on its own make a worse policy, nor net savings a better one: each programme rests on an economic model (demand-led stimulus, lower compulsory levies, consolidation of the public accounts…) that the cost schedule does not settle. GDP itself measures a volume of activity, not well-being or the usefulness of what is produced. Economic models and feedback effects.

This lever in the method · Costing for François Ruffin

  1. nouspresident.fr, plan d'action « Plan urgence climat ». Read the programme page.

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